We have to use estimates from the same source, otherwise the math can wander all over. Say, a source dedicated to electronic payments, e.g. here, which gives 2014 US CC fraud at about 12% by value.
Fraud is a red herring, anyway. Heck, issuers make their living charging merchants for handling consumer money and fraud. Fraud goes up, their charges go up. If they really were worried about fraud, they'd have implemented EMV or better in the US long ago. Even now, they're just doing chip & signature, because they're far more concerned with keeping people spending money (the more spent, the larger their cut). Moreover, the fraud will simply shift to card-not-present purchases, as happened in EMV regions.
However, despite downsides such as having to share valuable purchase stats with Apple -- which previously they kept to themselves -- and giving networks more power, there are definitely benefits to Apple Pay for issuers. One is that, unlike a proxy payment service such as the original Google Wallet that hides what you bought, the issuers continue to get their usual purchase info flow keyed directly to each of us, which is especially valuable now that the merchant loses the same personalized info.
Issuers make money selling such info and/or advertising slots back to the merchants. Which is why major merchants hate Apple Pay. They still can get the ability to advertise to targeted groups, but now they have to pay the issuers for it, and the groups are less personalized.
This flow of personal purchase information is another reason why issuers are willing to pay Apple a cut.
