E3 and NAB Events Canceled Due to Coronavirus

[smirking]

Big problem with your line of thought: we may never know unreported cases (of both recoveries AND deaths). There is no such thing as perfect data. So we go with what’s available. And right now, the data that’s available suggests taking extreme measures to slow the spread of this virus to moderate the effects on our healthcare system.

We will eventually know. People who get Covid19 will have antibodies that indicate they were infected at one point. There is probably an undercount of infected, but recently emerged evidence indicate that in countries that are attempting to count everyone, the undercount is not as large as believed. I've already written several posts that outline the extent that China went through to make sure their dragnet snagged every single person of interest so they could test them and question them.

Most experts are projecting 1 to 2%. After reading the WHO report, I'm inclined to believe those experts.

SPOILER ALERT: THIS IS MORE CONTAGIOUS AND MORE DEADLY THAN THE FLU. REAL FACTS BACK THIS UP.

Look at Italy. Look at Wuhan. Don't assume that can't happen to your community.

 

[44267547]

E3 Is a massive conference, but not shocking that it’s been canceled at this point, especially given the magnitude of large scale audiences that would be attending. What’s happening right now is necessary through these Cancellations, not optional.

 

[Duane Martin]

More on topic I have attended the last 17 NAB Shows and all Avid Connects which runs right before NAB, both of which have now been cancelled. This event has been hugely beneficial to my career and a great opportunity to catch up with colleagues and friends from around the world while keeping up with the trends in my industry of film and television (or whatever we are calling it these days). Though I am disappointed I will not be attending the event this year I believe this to be the right choice. Right now in Canada we seem to be getting a significant number of positive tests (we actually test people here and have been for some time) from people returning from the U.S. That does not bode well for U.S. containment.

I had already decided to not attend this year but the official cancellation might help me get a refund for me and others from my company who were making the trip. Looking forward to safely attending the next NAB Show.

 

[AnakinMac]

Has COVID-19 been shown to cause pulmonary fibrosis? ARDS, yes, but generally speaking, fibrosis happens with chronic inflammation which by very definition is not acute. Not underestimating the damage COVID-19 may cause to pulmonary tissue. My brother is a pulmonologist/intensivist so I worry about his exposure.

Both SARS and MERS can cause pulmonary fibrosis. COVID-19 shows very similar lung CT image, so highly likely. Also there are pathology evidence shows fibrosis.

Some references:

Middle East Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus Infection into Established hDPP4-Transgenic Mice Accelerates Lung Damage Via Activation of the Pro-Inflammatory Response and Pulmonary Fibrosis - PubMed

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infects the lower respiratory airway of humans, leading to severe acute respiratory failure. Unlike human dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (hDPP4), a receptor for MERS-CoV, mouse DPP4 (mDPP4) failed to support MERS-CoV infection. Consequently...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

The role of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) signaling in SARS coronavirus-induced pulmonary fibrosis

Novel coronavirus (COVID-19) imaging features overlap with SARS and MERS

Although COVID-19's imaging features are variable and nonspecific, the findings thus far do show ''significant overlap'' with those of severe acute respiratory syndrome and Middle East respiratory syndrome. The early evidence suggests that initial chest imaging will show abnormality in at least...

www.sciencedaily.com

Clinical Pathology of Critical Patient with Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (COVID-19)

Aim: Novel coronavirus pneumonia ( COVID-19) have emerged as major global health threats since December, 2019. Up to now, the histopathology of critical patient with COVID-19 remains largely undisclosed. Methods: We here performed lung organ dissection, and described the pathological changes of...

www.preprints.org

 

[sevoneone]

its just a damn flu theres nothing to be afraid of. average age of death from corona is 80 smh. i cant believe they made such chaos over absolutely nothing

I think there are a lot of people in the dangerous age range in the US that are still part of the workforce than people realize. I know a lot of people that are continuing to work well into their 70's even if part-time. Some because they have to, some because they want to. Either way they are out and as exposed to this as much as everyone else and, if they get seriously ill or die, it will be felt by the economy either from their lack of work or strain on the healthcare system. Just because it is unlikely to kill younger people doesn't mean there are not long term risks from just going about our lives.

Influenza kills 0.1% of people who contract it. COVID-19 kills 2-3% or more. And yes, it "targets" people in their later years, so young people can just ignore the threat, right? Sure, if you don't care about your parents/grandparents...

I think the more recent numbers are estimated at ~1.4% accounting for people that have caught the virus and recovered with only mild symptoms. Let's be real here, it is still 14x more deadlier than the average seasonal flu. I think people have trouble comprehending small numbers just like they do large numbers. 0.1% and 1.4% seem a lot closer together than 1x and 14x. 1.4% of the US population is about 4.5 million people. If all those deaths came from people over the age of 65, it would kill 1 in 10, literally decimating the senior population of the US.

 

[Nicky G]

its just a damn flu theres nothing to be afraid of. average age of death from corona is 80 smh. i cant believe they made such chaos over absolutely nothing

The mortality rate is 2% or so in the general population, much higher in elderly or otherwise at-risk groups. The US is starting to say things like "a third of the public may eventually get this virus" and Germany today said two-thirds may get it.

If a third of Americans get the disease, we are talking about a couple million dead -- and that's not even looking at what happens to people with other diseases and conditions, when the healthcare system is completely overwhelmed.

Maybe you don't care about people over 60 or with compromised immune systems -- and these are NOT the only people who die from this virus -- but many of us do, and do not want to act as vectors for killing off the bulk of our elders.
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It's a respiratory virus that is similar to the flu. No it's not the flu. But it's in the same type of category.

Except it has a mortality rate between 10 times and 20 times that of the seasonal flu, and seems to be, if anything, more easily transmittable.

This is something that if not slowed down, half a million to a couple million people in the USA could potentially perish this year. We are at the very early stages of this. Even China is hardly through it. This will be a virus that is with us this year and into next, and potentially beyond.

 

[Matias Marcel]

The media plays a very important role here... Provoking hysteria on the population for an illness that it is no more deadly than influenza. %2 is the deadly rate, and only in people over 75 and with pre-existing conditions... I hope that this story ends soon. It is really hurting the global economy.

 

[Nicky G]

Secondly, the more it spreads, the more chance it has to mutate. A virus, as simple as it is, is life as well and will do what it can to survive. So one day we’ll just be saying “It only kills pathetic, lonely people who whine on forums, so who cares?”

OK, is there a way we can coax it in such a direction? 🤭
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You're right, it's not like the flu, it's actually more like a cold. Get over it people. Practice good hygiene. That's it.

Except the cold literally has a mortality rate of zero, and this has a mortality rate of 2+ percent in the general population. Nothing like one another at all. You think all the top epidemiological experts on the planet are treating this like a crisis because it's just a cold? Will you be telling us that the Earth is actually flat next?

 

[mw360]

The media plays a very important role here... Provoking hysteria on the population for an illness that it is no more deadly than influenza. %2 is the deadly rate, and only in people over 75 and with pre-existing conditions... I hope that this story ends soon. It is really hurting the global economy.

2% is 20 times more deadly than flu. The mortality rate amongth the elderly is much higher than 2% - more like 10-15%. There is no vaccine, so unlike the flu, this could reach most households. The best healthcare systems in the world already struggle in flu season. They are not equipped at all to cope with something even 2x as bad as flu, let alone 20x. We have a chance to slow it, even halt it, but we all have to act now. If we don't, every other potential cause of death will also escalate because every infection and injury and sickness will have to compete for ICU beds with the massive influx of covid sufferers.

 

[smirking]

The media plays a very important role here... Provoking hysteria on the population for an illness that it is no more deadly than influenza. %2 is the deadly rate, and only in people over 75 and with pre-existing conditions... I hope that this story ends soon. It is really hurting the global economy.

If you're going to accuse the media of getting their facts wrong, you could at least do some research to get your own facts straight. The current death rate of the seasonal flu is somewhere around .01% according to numbers published by the CDC and could be as low as .005%.

In people age 80 or over the fatality rate was over 80% (WHO: page 12). Even amongst younger people who had a preexisting condition the fatality rate was near 10% (WHO: page 12). This is way more lethal than the flu and even the published case fatality rates are assuming that people get adequate care. When the healthcare system gets overrun like it did in Italy, the fatality rates become stunningly high because some patients that are salvagable are declared to be lost causes on arrival and left to die.

If you think this is hurting the global economy now, don't you think it's going to get even worse if we allow this to completely explode the world over so that we see scenes like this happening in every major city of the world? Please do yourself a service. Watch this video. Ask yourself how the hell is it possible for a toothless disease to cause this much mayhem.

 

[CatalinApple]

Oh, it WILL kill more than the sick and the elderly even if it doesn't do it directly. The great danger of this virus is that it hits our modern healthcare system where it's weakest so it doesn't take a lot for it to overwhelm our defenses. Once our healthcare system is overrun, all sorts of things that would have been routine become life and death situations.

If you have a heart attack or a serious injury that requires emergency surgery, you might never make it to the ER because an ambulance may not be available and even if you got to the ER, there might not be anywhere to put you. Even if you got inside, there might not be a surgeon available to operate on you or there might not even be an OR available because in Italy, they had to convert some of their OR rooms into makeshift isolation rooms because Covid 19 is highly contagious and you cannot toss a Covid 19 patient in a general medical/surgical unit bed unless you want a cruise ship outbreak on your hands.

I wish more people would understand the gravity of this new virus like you do and many others including myself. Too bad there are people who look at this virus like it's some joke while it isn't. If people would listen to every instruction and just do what the experts ask us to do, I do believe countries would ease the restrictions a little bit.

 

[Packers1958]

People in the US has no clue what 1% death rate means. If only 10% of the US catch the virus in 2020, that equates to 33 million people. If only 1% of the 33 million die from it, that equates to 330,000 deaths in the US. The flu causes 60,000 deaths. Now lets bump up the infection rate to 40%. That equates to 132 million people. Using the same 1% death rate, that equates to 1.32 million deaths. Thats more deaths than cancer, heart disease and flu combined. At 40% infection rate, it would become the number 1 cause of death in the US. Think about that the next time you think 1% is just a small number. Now lets use the same 40% rate for the rest of the world. There are 8 billion people. 40% infection would equate to 3.2 billion. 1% death rate would equal 32 million deaths.

 

[CatalinApple]

People in the US has no clue what 1% death rate means. If only 10% of the US catch the virus in 2020, that equates to 33 million people. If only 1% of the 33 million die from it, that equates to 330,000 deaths in the US. The flu causes 60,000 deaths. Now lets bump up the infection rate to 40%. That equates to 132 million people. Using the same 1% death rate, that equates to 1.32 million deaths. Thats more deaths than cancer, heart disease and flu combined. At 40% infection rate, it would become the number 1 cause of death in the US. Think about that the next time you think 1% is just a small number. Now lets use the same 40% rate for the rest of the world. There are 8 billion people. 40% infection would equate to 3.2 billion. 1% death rate would equal 32 million deaths.

No matter how many times you will try and explain this to others they won't understand. My advice is to take care of you and stop explaining to others the gravity of this situation since they don't want to listen to anyone.

There's no evidence suggesting warm weather will kill this virus. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/sci...-sensitive-high-temperatures-dont-bank-summer

The virus that causes Covid-19 may have a temperature sweet spot at which it spreads fastest, a new study has suggested, but experts say people should avoid falling into the trap of thinking it will react to seasonal changes in exactly the same way as other pathogens, like those that cause the common cold or influenza.

 

[smirking]

No matter how many times you will try and explain this to others they won't understand. My advice is to take care of you and stop explaining to others the gravity of this situation since they don't want to listen to anyone.

I do think some people are persuadable. Otherwise I wouldn't be wasting my time pushing back on every ill informed claim. I've seen people in my social media feeds who were laughing and telling me to stop fearmongering suddenly change their tune. Some of them are now taking this very seriously.

At a critical time like this, everyone who understands the gravity of the situation and is able to wield facts coherently needs to put up a fight and push back against misinformation. Plenty of people who are on the fence or are just confused also read the conversations and gain knowledge from them.

 

[Packers1958]

I do think some people are persuadable. Otherwise I wouldn't be wasting my time pushing back on every ill informed claim. I've seen people in my social media feeds who were laughing and telling me to stop fearmongering suddenly change their tune. Some of them are now taking this very seriously.

At a critical time like this, everyone who understands the gravity of the situation and is able to wield facts coherently needs to put up a fight and push back against misinformation. Plenty of people who are on the fence or are just confused also read the conversations and gain knowledge from them.

I agree. I don't argue with them. I just give them the mathematical facts about a 1% death rate. Once they start seeing actual numbers, they start getting a little more concerned.

 

[Tor Eckman]

Except it has a mortality rate between 10 times and 20 times that of the seasonal flu, and seems to be, if anything, more easily transmittable.

Aside from the fact that we don't know the raw mortality rate of corona -- or flu either for that matter since related deaths are often underreported and total cases are unknown -- the data (incomplete data) we have now is flu versus vaccinated population and corona with no vaccination. Without flu vaccinations, and if we really knew all of the numbers, it may very well be that flu and corona are similar with regard to mortality -- flu could even be worse. This is a more nuanced argument than you are suggesting.

CDC does not know exactly how many people get sick with seasonal flu each year.

Frequently Asked Questions about Estimated Flu Burden | CDC

Links to key resources on the burden of influenza - CDC

www.cdc.gov

CDC does not know exactly how many people die from seasonal flu each year.

Frequently Asked Questions about Estimated Flu Burden | CDC

Links to key resources on the burden of influenza - CDC

www.cdc.gov

The biggest issue here is that there is no one that can really be trusted for accurate information that is untainted by politics or stupidity. I don't trust the media or government bureaucracies.

 

[CatalinApple]

I agree. I don't argue with them. I just give them the mathematical facts about a 1% death rate. Once they start seeing actual numbers, they start getting a little more concerned.

I do think people stop thinking rational and logical in such times. They panic and do things they shouldn't do. Then there's restrictions like we see in China or Italy to control the panicking crowd because people try to run from the virus but they forget that they are worsening the situation. No matter how bad things get, panicking is not the solution. Everyone must keep their heads cool.

 

[Moonlight]

The media plays a very important role here... Provoking hysteria on the population for an illness that it is no more deadly than influenza. %2 is the deadly rate, and only in people over 75 and with pre-existing conditions... I hope that this story ends soon. It is really hurting the global economy.

Maybe you can tell the dying to just breathe money. IT IS WAY MORE DEADLY THAN THE FLU.

 

[Packers1958]

Aside from the fact that we don't know the raw mortality rate of corona -- or flu either for that matter since related deaths are often underreported and total cases are unknown -- the data (incomplete data) we have now is flu versus vaccinated population and corona with no vaccination. Without flu vaccinations, and if we really knew all of the numbers, it may very well be that flu and corona are similar with regard to mortality -- flu could even be worse. This is a more nuanced argument than you are suggesting.

CDC does not know exactly how many people get sick with seasonal flu each year.

Frequently Asked Questions about Estimated Flu Burden | CDC

Links to key resources on the burden of influenza - CDC

www.cdc.gov

CDC does not know exactly how many people die from seasonal flu each year.

Frequently Asked Questions about Estimated Flu Burden | CDC

Links to key resources on the burden of influenza - CDC

www.cdc.gov

The biggest issue here is that there is no one that can really be trusted for accurate information that is untainted by politics or stupidity. I don't trust the media or government bureaucracies.

The difference is there is no vaccine for coronavirus. With the flu, there is a vaccine every year. Some times it's really effective, 70 to 80%, other times only 20 to 30%. However, all flu vaccines help alleviate the worst part of the virus, even it wasn't effective in preventing it. There is no such protection with the coronavirus. Plus vaccines, whether they are effective or less effective, help contain the flu from getting out of control as it does create a buffer. Just a month ago we only really heard how bad it was getting China. In less than a month it has spread to every continent, except Antarctica. That's pretty impressive.

 

[Tor Eckman]

The difference is there is no vaccine for coronavirus. With the flu, there is a vaccine every year. Some times it's really effective, 70 to 80%, other times only 20 to 30%. However, all flu vaccines help alleviate the worst part of the virus, even it wasn't effective in preventing it. There is no such protection with the coronavirus. Plus vaccines, whether they are effective or less effective, help contain the flu from getting out of control as it does create a buffer. Just a month ago we only really heard how bad it was getting China. In less than a month it has spread to every continent, except Antarctica. That's pretty impressive.

I understand all of that. But for people who are not in a high risk group (the elderly or otherwise health compromised) corona is not going to be all that serious. https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-symptoms-flu.html There will eventually be a vaccine for corona. https://nypost.com/2020/03/10/coronavirus-vaccine-could-be-ready-by-april-chinese-officials-say/

Btw, we really don't know how effective flu vaccines are because we don't know the actual numbers of flu cases or flu deaths. See my above post. You can generate any statistic you want to or need to to support a purpose. I had to read this book is grad school per one of my research design professors. It would do people good to understand it: https://www.audible.com/pd/How-to-L...VjLbICh1CMAQUEAQYASABEgI8d_D_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

 

[Reason077]

CDC does not know exactly how many people get sick with seasonal flu each year.

CDC does not know exactly how many people die from seasonal flu each year.

Not exactly, perhaps, but they have some pretty good estimates.

So far this season, Flu has killed over 20,000 Americans including 136 children, and hospitalized 350,000, making it the worst flu season since the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.

Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/flu-deaths-20000-americans-this-season-including-136-children-cdc/

 

[cmaier]

You're right, it's not like the flu, it's actually more like a cold. Get over it people. Practice good hygiene. That's it.

The statements get dumber and dumber. 15% of people over 80 who catch a cold die from it? The NBA suspends the season when someone gets a cold? All travel from europe banned because of a cold?

Such a moronic statement.

 

[7493920]

Why do so many people think appeal to authority is a valid line of argument?

 

[Mw0103]

I understand all of that. But for people who are not in a high risk group (the elderly or otherwise health compromised) corona is not going to be all that serious. https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-symptoms-flu.html

Not all that serious—except that those non-risk people can spread this highly infectious virus to the high risk people, leading to overwhelming the health system, leading to non-high risk people unable to get treatment for emergencies other than COVID-19.

Stop advocating selfish ignorance.

 

[macpro2000]

The statements get dumber and dumber. 15% of people over 80 who catch a cold die from it? The NBA suspends the season when someone gets a cold? All travel from europe banned because of a cold?

Such a moronic statement.

I totally agree with you. Overreacting.