Sir, I won't disagree with you about which are the more plausible scenarios... if such a tool were let out along with Apple signing tools, which I don't think would happen.
Have we seen the source code for iOS get out? For MacOS? For Windows? For Photoshop? For Word? Never. In many decades. It's very reasonable to assume that if Apple possessed a tool (be it an application or a modified version of iOS) that decrypted an encrypted iOS device, this tool would NOT get out. Is there a chance? Yes. Is it an acceptable risk? In my mind, yes.
I will disagree that the worse scenario is the case of a less secure OS.
I feel the same.
For one thing, we've had such OSes for a long time, iOS included. In fact, a lot of this feels like Apple desperately handwaving to direct attention away from the fact that people jailbreak iOS, that updates constantly fix buffer overruns that are iOS security holes, and that the fingerprint sensor is wide open to fake finger attacks.
I don't see that so much. This case has put Apple in a very tough spot. If they give in and do what the government wants, people question iOS security and they've been selling security as a feature for a while now. Since they chose to fight, they now have to make their case in the court of public opinion in addition to a real court. In some ways I'm glad this is happening because I think it's a good conversation for the public to have. The rhetoric coming out of Apple is a bit extreme, but at this point they have no choice.
For another, people getting hacked is nothing compared to personal injuries or national attacks.
100% agree.
Do we have to tread carefully? Yes. But I think we have to tread the path, instead of pulling into a turtle shell. Just as with any other warrant, there have to be checks, but at the same time, we cannot throw out warrant powers altogether.
This issue has been grossly distorted in my opinion. Apple continues to link the mere existence of a decrypt tool with a total privacy meltdown (cancer? really???) when in all reality the existence of a such a tool would in no way affect 99.999% of iOS users. It would not install a backdoor on a user's iPhone. It would not give the government a master key to your phone. It would not allow the government to surveil you at will (beyond all the information you already volunteer freely when you access the Internet). The only thing such a tool would do is decrypt an iPhone that is physically present in Cupertino when the government possesses a legal warrant. I fail to see how this will destroy privacy and security forever.
Before we can have a serious debate about this issue, we must all answer one question: There is never ever *ever* any compelling reason for law enforcement/government to view the contents of an electronic device, yes or no? I think most reasonable people would say no. So if we can start there, we can have a conversation about how to mitigate risk, which is precisely the conversation we SHOULD be having.
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That's not a reality, just a possible outcome. If Apple wins this current case in court then it will only help them when they resist whatever laws get passed. If the courts say that Apple can't be compelled to develop a hack into it's own operating system, they'll be likely to side with Apple on a future case where the government wants Apple to install spyware on all its devices.
Just your possible outcome...and one that is far less likely when "national security" is invoked. Have you been paying attention this past decade or two?