Estimated Supply of iPhone X on Launch Day Revised Down to Just Over 12 Million Units

[MacRumors]

When the iPhone X launches on November 3, initial supply of the smartphone available to purchase could be limited to around 12 million units, according to Jeff Pu, an analyst at Taipei-based Yuanta Investment Consulting.

Pu told Nikkei Asian Review that Foxconn likely manufactured around 2 million iPhone X devices in September. He said the number should increase to 10 million in October, and reach a total of 40 million by the end of the year, down from his original forecast of 45 million units earlier this year.

If accurate, that means there would be just over 12 million iPhone X handsets available to purchase when the device launches in under six weeks.

The report corroborates that the TrueDepth camera and facial recognition system is a major bottleneck for iPhone X production, as KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said in a research note earlier this week.

Two executives working for iPhone suppliers told Nikkei Asian Review that 3-D sensor part makers are still struggling to reach a satisfactory level of output, and to boost their yield rate. This rate measures the number of usable or saleable units from a batch of components or final products produced. A low yield rate is likely to hurt a company's margins and bottom line.

Reports about limited availability surrounding an iPhone launch surface every year, but rumors suggest the iPhone X might be even harder to get your hands on than a 256GB iPhone 7 Plus in Jet Black last year.

Article Link: Estimated Supply of iPhone X on Launch Day Revised Down to Just Over 12 Million Units

 

[iapplelove]

Don’t worry MR, I will be sure to post how much I’m enjoying mine !

 

[alwaysbeincontact]

Going to stay up late to try and get an order in for one! I love the 8 Plus though!!

 

[profets]

Ok, 12 million doesn't sound as bad after all the talk about 10,000 units/day and multiple issues with manufacturing.

 

[questionmark32]

I didn't get an iPhone 7 last year, so I don't now how hard it was to preorder a 256GB Jet Black iPhone 7 Plus, but I plan on ordering at 3:01am.

Watch, people are gonna be so pumped for this iPhone X the week of the preorder that everyone will stop complaining, especially since there is good news about the battery and probably more good news coming

 

[LordQ]

Kudos to those who will get it.

 

[bidwalj]

They should just limit the launch countries if they are really that short. Might as well improve the experience than have 3-4 week delays right at midnight.

 

[Michael Scrip]

12 million units available the first day... let's hope there are enough additional units each and every day afterwards!

 

[Rayban]

But I thought they haven't started making them yet

 

[maflynn]

Wasn't Cook supposed to be supply channel expert? I'm not understanding why Apple continually has supply problems, though with the X, it seems more acute.

 

[OldSchoolMacGuy]

Glad the 6 iPhone Xs I ordered are already guaranteed. Have fun boxing it out for the rest on launch day.

 

[djcerla]

This, too, shall pass.

 

[Starfyre]

Glad the 6 iPhone Xs I ordered are already guaranteed. Have fun boxing it out for the rest on launch day.

How?

 

[The Game 161]

Sounds very promising from what we heard before...ordering on the dot might just be able to get one

 

[WilliamG]

Glad the 6 iPhone Xs I ordered are already guaranteed. Have fun boxing it out for the rest on launch day.

My 12 units are also guaranteed.

 

[now i see it]

iPhone 6 series launch sold 10 million units in one weekend. As to how many of those 'sales' actually shipped is a whole different story.

https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2014/09/22First-Weekend-iPhone-Sales-Top-10-Million-Set-New-Record/

 

[macfacts]

Apple should have daily lotteries for in store people who line up daily. Nintendo do does this with their Switch console in Japan.

 

[whooleytoo]

Wasn't Cook supposed to be supply channel expert? I'm not understanding why Apple continually has supply problems, though with the X, it seems more acute.

Considering the price (and thus, relatively limited market) for the iPhone X, it makes sense to be conservative with your supply. And generally if the supply is too low, you can always use it to drive the hype "iPhone X sold out everywhere".

 

[TurboPGT!]

If accurate, that means there would be just over 12 million iPhone X handsets available to purchase when the device launches in under six weeks.

Reports about limited availability surrounding an iPhone launch surface every year, but rumors suggest the iPhone X might be even harder to get your hands on than a 256GB iPhone 7 Plus in Jet Black last year.

Well, these are inconsistent statements.

When the 7 Plus launched last year there were far fewer than 12 million units available for purchase on launch day. Retail stores had precisely ZERO inventory for the first week, and a smattering of pre-orders were delivered each day for the first several weeks. Proof is in the fact that Apple declined to announce launch weekend sales for the first time ever. They declined because they had hardly any units to ship, which is what they count as sales. Rather than it being misconstrued as a decrease in demand, they declined to announce numbers (for reference, the following year the 6s launch weekend was 13 million units shipped). Had enough inventory been available, it likely would have been 16 million units of iPhone 7/7Plus, just based on the trend graph of Y-o-Y launches.

If iPhone X has 12 units ready to ship on Nov. 3rd, it will be way better off than the 7 Plus last year. Probably 50% of people who pre-order in the first few hours will receive on launch day. Unless of course some of that inventory is going to stores, in which case that number lessons.

I think Ming is way off on his estimate of 50 million pre-orders, but it depends on what he means. Probably 10-20 million pre-orders in the first 24 hrs is realistic.

 

[sniffies]

Limit launch to the great United States of America only!

 

[Speechless]

FIX IT APPLE. FIX IT.

 

[mattopotamus]

What is the supply levels typically for launch day? 12 millions seems like a lot. I know there are a lot more countries this time around.

 

[Casiotone]

"Just" over 12 million units?

Look at the first weekend iPhone sales stats. (Apple didn't release the numbers for the 7)

For the 2017 iPhones I would have expected something like 15M for the first weekend, so 12M for the X and a few million iPhone 8 sales would probably add up to a number close to that.

Of course the demand for the X may well exceed 12M at launch, but I don't see it as a catastrophic supply constraint that some seem to imply since the numbers seem to be in line with previous years. The question will be more about how fast they can replenish their stock supply after the launch.

 

[Michaelgtrusa]

This will sell out in seconds.

 

[Dirtydutch]

Well, these are inconsistent statements.

When the 7 Plus launched last year there were far fewer than 12 million units available for purchase on launch day. Retail stores had precisely ZERO inventory for the first week, and a smattering of pre-orders were delivered each day for the first several weeks. Proof is in the fact that Apple declined to announce launch weekend sales for the first time ever. They declined because they had hardly any units to ship, which is what they count as sales. Rather than it being misconstrued as a decrease in demand, they declined to announce numbers (for reference, the following year the 6s launch weekend was 13 million units shipped). Had enough inventory been available, it likely would have been 16 million units of iPhone 7/7Plus, just based on the trend graph of Y-o-Y launches.

If iPhone X has 12 units ready to ship on Nov. 3rd, it will be way better off than the 7 Plus last year. Probably 50% of people who pre-order in the first few hours will receive on launch day. Unless of course some of that inventory is going to stores, in which case that number lessons.

I think Ming is way off on his estimate of 50 million pre-orders, but it depends on what he means. Probably 10-20 million pre-orders in the first 24 hrs is realistic.

I think it's more of a problem bc it's a much wider launch than last year