Estimated Supply of iPhone X on Launch Day Revised Down to Just Over 12 Million Units

[TurboPGT!]

My gut estimation:

I have to imagine that the smartphone market is pretty well saturated by now.
I can't imagine iphone 7 sales to be a lot higher than the 6S. Say 15M max.
With high market saturation, pent up demand for something new, but higher prices, the demand for the X should roughly equal the 7.

I'd say 15M on opening weekend.
I can't imagine it'll be too difficult to secure a phone at 12am on launch day.

I think 10-20 million pre-orders in the first 24 hours is reasonable. And they may yet reserve some inventory for retail channels. Not much, but some. They are least going to want demo units in the stores from Nov. 3.

But yes, with 12 million ready to go, and 10 million allocated for day-1 pre-orders...I'd say it will take a few hours for that to sell out entirely.

 

[bchery21]

Never tried pre-ordering before but I might just have to this time around. Question - does the money get debited from you bank account right away when you place an order? Also, if I were to buy it in-store prior to receiving the pre-ordered unit would I be able to cancel the pre-ordered unit?

 

[thisisnotmyname]

My 12 units are also guaranteed.

I ordered 24 and half a dozen 2018 iPhone 9s. (iPhone X IIs?)

 

[citysnaps]

12 million units on launch day...

Isn't that greater than what Samsung sells in a year for a new smartphone release?

 

[TurboPGT!]

Isn’t the launch for the X to more countries than the initial first wave of the iPhone 7 release?

It may well be, I haven't looked, but I don't think that changes things meaningfully...not for the 12 AM PDT pre-order rush.

 

[Dirtydutch]

It may well be, I haven't looked, but I don't think that changes things meaningfully...not for the 12 AM PDT pre-order rush.

I hope so

 

[RickInHouston]

I think having one of the first off the assembly line for this one isn't a good thing.

Good luck to the first 12 million.

Let's hope your face unlock works better than the demo! Maybe that actual phone had a rejected sensor in it?

 

[bigjnyc]

Never tried pre-ordering before but I might just have to this time around. Question - does the money get debited from you bank account right away when you place an order? Also, if I were to buy it in-store prior to receiving the pre-ordered unit would I be able to cancel the pre-ordered unit?

They charge your card when the order ships, not right when you place the pre-order

 

[69Mustang]

Component having yield issues... hmmm. What does it take to volunteer $1K just to be one of the testers of the first batches?
A. Bravery
B. Stupidity
C. Little bit of column A... little bit of column B

 

[JM]

Soooooo... $1000 x 12 million is: $12 Billion dollars.

Nice.

 

[TheSteves]

Limit launch to the great United States of America only!

But they’re making much more money per unit abroad.

So they should limit it to abroad.

 

[michaelz]

The sensor housing is too ugly for me to order one.

 

[mj1108]

Who to believe....who to believe.... Anyone know how reliable this analyst is?

 

[willzyx]

Wasn't Cook supposed to be supply channel expert? I'm not understanding why Apple continually has supply problems, though with the X, it seems more acute.

It's an artificial supply problem. They keep the supply low, and everyone will want one. They get to say that they sold out in pre-orders and analysts go ga-ga and stock prices go up. They get to tell everyone that X was the biggest success ever and people who are hearing about supply problems now will surely wait for pre-order to get it in time for the Holidays.

 

[macTW]

Wasn't Cook supposed to be supply channel expert? I'm not understanding why Apple continually has supply problems, though with the X, it seems more acute.

Not every company operates with the precision Apple seeks. Apple pushes manufacturers beyond what they’ve ever felt. That pushes the engineering field, but also leads to shortages.

 

[AlphaGuitarist]

Since the title states that the supply has been revised down, what was the original number before the revision?

 

[obiwan]

The sensor housing is too ugly for me to order one.

I'm notch surprised...

 

[daveak]

They should just limit the launch countries if they are really that short. Might as well improve the experience than have 3-4 week delays right at midnight.

I agree. UK only

 

[jcmeyer5]

Artificial supply constraints simply so they can say they sold out. Gotta have a media win after the dismal 8 launch.

 

[daveak]

Hi im from Portugal and will need to wait to 27 Oct. to pre order. How you can get them pre-order ready?

No one can. Their carrier probably said they had one reserved with them, but as people I know found out last year with their Jet Black, carriers lie about the stock they will have.

 

[44267547]

Never tried pre-ordering before but I might just have to this time around. Question - does the money get debited from you bank account right away when you place an order? Also, if I were to buy it in-store prior to receiving the pre-ordered unit would I be able to cancel the pre-ordered unit?

Your card or funds will be deducted once the item enters preparing for shipment. You do have the option of canceling a preorder through Apple's website. But once it enters preparing for shipment, the order cannot be canceled.

 

[citysnaps]

Artificial supply constraints simply so they can say they sold out. Gotta have a media win after the dismal 8 launch.

That's too funny. With that logic, Apple should have artificially constrained iPhone 8 supply. You know, to drive greater sales...

 

[Wags]

I think 10-20 million pre-orders in the first 24 hours is reasonable. And they may yet reserve some inventory for retail channels. Not much, but some. They are least going to want demo units in the stores from Nov. 3.

But yes, with 12 million ready to go, and 10 million allocated for day-1 pre-orders...I'd say it will take a few hours for that to sell out entirely.

Sure they will have good supply at stores. They what to have the hype and people camping out.

 

[theMaccer]

How?

Hes got a guy who knows a guy whose cousin works at a store.

 

[agsystems]

"Just" over 12 million units?

Look at the first weekend iPhone sales stats. (Apple didn't release the numbers for the 7)

For the 2017 iPhones I would have expected something like 15M for the first weekend, so 12M for the X and a few million iPhone 8 sales would probably add up to a number close to that.

Of course the demand for the X may well exceed 12M at launch, but I don't see it as a catastrophic supply constraint that some seem to imply since the numbers seem to be in line with previous years. The question will be more about how fast they can replenish their stock supply after the launch.

thank you for the remainder - we all have short memories- sounds like if they limit supply to 3-4 countries at launch a lot of folks will get a chance to grab this phone
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If the wait becomes too long, I think a lot of people who miss out on the X will likely opt for the 8/plus.

or simply wait for next year's model - my 6s+ is paid for and I have no plans to get into another installment plan for a similar looking phone.

 

[Bacillus]

By the same token, its been rumored that they only started making the X recently, and given this is to be a flagship model, I would expect them to start the manufacturing process a lot sooner.

Because of its size, Apple is unable to make disruptively innovative products in enough quantities to market them as mainstream. Cook should have realised that well before iPhone X planning and announcement.
My assumption: several things went wrong in this particular product launch.
- I just can't imagine that they'd have settled with 3 yr old inductive charging where the markets expected long-range charging (and they didn't deny or do anything to manage/settle expectations around Energeous licensing)
- The fact that the AirPower charging mats will not be available for so many more months is a sign of bad planning/last moment ordering. This component is hardly difficult to produce (as IKEA can make them...), and would have been ready in a well executed strategy
- Abandoning touchID/home button wasn't a day 1 intention but merely induced by circumstances. A wild myriad of gestures now inconsistent with so many others, makes me suspect of some impromptu decision making. FaceID is promising but not outgrown enough to replace touchID.
- Who would settle for a less than perfect camera/sensor placement solution (notch) that compromises the whole UI - with all sorts of complications that could have easily be prevented by means of more elegant solutions.
As a whole, the iPhone X (as far as known yet) resembles much of the 40th anniversary Mac - that didn't get mainstream and actually never became more than a pilot project. Hence, this time with billions of orders the gamble factor is much higher - if not over the top.