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Estimated Supply of iPhone X on Launch Day Revised Down to Just Over 12 Million Units
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its not authorized. Thats why you have ample time to change your payment method prior to shipment.
You neglect to take into account the "Shiny" factor. Us sheep are always attracted to shiny new products."Just" over 12 million units?
Look at the first weekend iPhone sales stats. (Apple didn't release the numbers for the 7)
For the 2017 iPhones I would have expected something like 15M for the first weekend, so 12M for the X and a few million iPhone 8 sales would probably add up to a number close to that.
Of course the demand for the X may well exceed 12M at launch, but I don't see it as a catastrophic supply constraint that some seem to imply since the numbers seem to be in line with previous years. The question will be more about how fast they can replenish their stock supply after the launch.
So, if were estimating supplies for last year were around 15 million (pretty fair estimate actually), it would be logical to assume that based on this chart and the fact that supplies each year increase a few million, that the 2017 iPhone would need to be somewhere around 18 million units, regardless of what that phone is. But now, taking into account the "shiny" factor, demand should increase even further. By my "guestimate" probably an additional 10%, or almost 2 million. That brings the grand total of demand for the iPhone X to approximately 20 million units, and with 12 million expected at launch day, were at about 60% of demand needs.
Obviously, this estimate is closer to the extreme end of the spectrum (I'm trying to estimate demand and not supply, and seeing how demand always outweighs supply, I'm trying to be conservative). Also, iPhone 8 sales will alleviate some of that demand (how much is yet to be seen), but it's still not looking great. It's slightly better than what we were expecting, but still looks pretty bleak for those looking to get one for launch day.
We do too get free dongles! I have a helluva time keeping my cat from stealing mine and batting it under furniture. So I just put it away and use the Lightning earbuds now instead. As far as charging coasters go, I have an S7, S7 Edge and S8+ and had to buy the charging pucks separately.
Anyway, never let it be said that Apple didn't give us a free dongle for the headphones!
Even when an authorization occurs, you have time to change your payment method for preorders through most vendors. Having just done the preorder for the Apple Watch 3 and two of the Apple TV 4K a couple of weeks back, I can tell you that I did in fact see an authorization on my card at the time of preorder. While it didn’t show up as a pending transaction initially, it did still impact the available credit/balance for the card/account used.
so i guess what you're saying is that you believe the 10k/day number?
what, to you, gives the 10k analyst credibility while this guy is unbelievable?
12 million units will most likely satisfy demands of launch weekend, that is unprecedented for apple.
With all other rumors of OLED and true depth camera issues, 12 million seems unlikely.
Also that 10k a day seems too low as well. But that one is from Ming-Chi Kuo!
I'm more likely to bet on him.
With all other rumors of OLED and true depth camera issues, 12 million seems unlikely.
Also that 10k a day seems too low as well. But that one is from Ming-Chi Kuo!
I'm more likely to bet on him.
12 million might look ok, taking into consideration previous years, but:
- last year it was released in 30 countries on launch date, and now it is going to be released in 55 countries
- this is the first major change in design of the past years, so in addition to the expected first wave of buyers (similar to last year minus iphone 8 buyers), there is to add all the others that stopped buying an iphone every year (I'm speaking for myself since I used to buy an iphone every year and then stopped at 6S).
I'm assuming a lot of the current 20% iphone 6s owners (a fifth of total iphone owners) will want / were waiting for the X, so I suspect that not even 20 million would be sufficient to cover the first hour of demand...
I want now my iphone X 256gb space gray, not 4 weeks after november 3... :/
- last year it was released in 30 countries on launch date, and now it is going to be released in 55 countries
- this is the first major change in design of the past years, so in addition to the expected first wave of buyers (similar to last year minus iphone 8 buyers), there is to add all the others that stopped buying an iphone every year (I'm speaking for myself since I used to buy an iphone every year and then stopped at 6S).
I'm assuming a lot of the current 20% iphone 6s owners (a fifth of total iphone owners) will want / were waiting for the X, so I suspect that not even 20 million would be sufficient to cover the first hour of demand...
I want now my iphone X 256gb space gray, not 4 weeks after november 3... :/
"Just" over 12 million units?
Look at the first weekend iPhone sales stats. (Apple didn't release the numbers for the 7)
For the 2017 iPhones I would have expected something like 15M for the first weekend, so 12M for the X and a few million iPhone 8 sales would probably add up to a number close to that.
Of course the demand for the X may well exceed 12M at launch, but I don't see it as a catastrophic supply constraint that some seem to imply since the numbers seem to be in line with previous years. The question will be more about how fast they can replenish their stock supply after the launch.
Those figures do imply that the "tock" phones are the more popular at least on opening weekends! Maybe down to people's carrier plans etc.
Hopefully the 12M opening will be fine, lets face it while many of us may be pre-ordering or looking for one in the opening weeks quite a few will be getting this phone over the coming months especially for Christmas.
The video demo of the facial recognition unlock a couple pages back is impressive. That said, I really hope they offer an option to unlock direct to the home screen as well as to the notification screen.
12 million units of candies or loaves of bread is insane ammount to manufacture, let alone 12 million 1000$ phones, made of 62 types of metal on 34 individual components (These parts range from German accelerometers to camera modules from Sony in Japan. Parts come from a range of eight countries, which include the United States, China, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK). And then to distribute to all Apple Stores worldwide, to be ready for a single day.
Apple has if not THE SINGLE MOST IMPRESSIVE operation in the whole world!
Apple has if not THE SINGLE MOST IMPRESSIVE operation in the whole world!
Samsung produced almost 50% more phones than Apple in 2016 on a multitude of models (300mio+). Apple has few models, once a optimised production line is created and working, you just copy paste that until your capacity needs are met.
Samsung also makes refrigerators, and construction machines, it's an enormous company, that's why I said "single".
Or perhaps those 6s owners seen the price tag of the iPhone X... and decided the iPhone 8 is decent enough upgrade.
I think that majority of those who want the iPhone X are 7 and 7 Plus owners...those who want the latest and greatest. And previous owners... such as 6s or below, will take the iPhone 8 or wait until the X availability has improved.
So, the initial demand will be a very small percentage of 6s owners.
In the big scheme of things, if you own a 6s there is no need to upgrade to a 7 or 8, you mostly loose essential features while getting arguably negligible upgrades to existing ones.
I can see supplies of the X lasting a couple of hours really. I can't see everyone who is eligible to upgrade going for the X. Not everyone who is eligible to upgrade is going to get the X. My dad has two upgrades ready, he isn't getting it. My brother can upgrade, he's opting to go 6S to 8+ as the X is just too pricey.
I'm a 6s Plus owner who will be preordering the X the moment preorders open. I didn't feel that the 7 Plus was a worthwhile upgrade and have zero interest in the 8 Plus. Count me in that small percentage!
There are a lot of people who have 6's or older that are in desperate need of an upgrade who can't or won't wait another year.
Yeah, some will, some won't. As for design, the X is also an offshoot of the 6. Personally, I think the 6 is the ideal form factor which is why Apple is probably finding it difficult or unnecessary to change it.
I'm running a JB 7 plus right now, so I don't need the 8 plus. That said, if the X wasn't being introduced and the 8 was the anniversary model, I'd probably buy it.
I prefer the changes they seem to have made with the X, so I will wait for it, though.
I prefer the changes they seem to have made with the X, so I will wait for it, though.
As a 6S Plus owner, whose wife is on a 7 with improved camera and SOC, and finds the 8 interesting for the improved SOC and camera (interesting enough to be worth an upgrade if we weren't seeing the X as well), can you tell me what, pray tell, are the "essential features" one loses by upgrading from the 6S to a 7 or 8? Oh, and I have both the Airpods and Beats Solo with the automatic pairing, so "headphone jack" doesn't count...
I'm right there with you...
If the X wasn't introduced, I'd have upgraded to the 8 Plus. Its internal upgrades are definitely impressive, but I'm just not a fan of the dated exterior appearance. Waiting for the X is really a no-brainer.
By the way, I love your user name. I was a big fan of those books as a kid!