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Estimated Supply of iPhone X on Launch Day Revised Down to Just Over 12 Million Units

agsystems said:
...Now your point about ordering parts - there is evidence Apple did that year(s) ahead of time - how do we know - here it is MC's favorite analyst Kuo talking about this iPhone X in March of 2016.

https://www.macrumors.com/2016/03/26/kuo-iphone-2017-oled-curved-glass/
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Yes, he was talking about OLED screens. Samsung had to have plenty of notice in order to build and convert factories.

OTOH, orders for FaceId parts didn't begin to show up in the news until (late) summertime this year. E.g.

https://www.macrumors.com/2017/08/09/apple-massive-orders-3d-sensing/
 
Relentless Power said:
Your unnecessary hyperbole aside, your redundant Post was already Made clear before you decided to regurgitate the same information clearly stated by four other members, which Was unnecessary to multi quote a whole page of information provided to the OP's Post. Your first Post didn't educate anyone else on anything what was already discussed. Nor am I correcting anything. I'm simply reiterating something already stated that was accurate before you chimed in saying "Be carful with this". My wording was accurate contrary to your retort as was others.
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If I missed something in the quoted statements that specifically called out the authorization that takes place and holds funds at the time the order is placed, my apologies... I read and re-read looking for that specific bit of information as, for people who have never preordered anything, that is something that is critical to understand. A lot of people have preordered items expecting to be charged when said items ship and inadvertently overdrawing on their account or having other purchases declined because they have been unaware of the authorization that takes place to hold the funds.

I wasn't trying to ruffle feathers with my initial post, just trying to ensure that complete information was provided so nobody was surprised.
 
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At a rumored production rate of 10,000 per day they will have been manufacturing for 1,200 days or 3+ years by October 27th?
 
Help me out with this.

I don’t see anything stating that the 12 million will be solely allocated to pre-orders. It says available for launch day. In the past, Apple allocated stock to Apple pre-orders, carrier pre-orders, Apple retail, carrier retail (although small), places like Best Buy and Target (probably just certain stores), etc.

I was able to walk right into a Verizon store and pick up my 8+ phone on Day 1 this year. In 2014, I walked into Best Buy on Day 1 and was able to purchase the elusive space grey 6+. In both cases, pre-orders had already pushed out if ordering online on that Day. So those stores were selling launch stock phones.

Kind of curious how the allocation of iPhone X’s will go given the above and then also with the additional launch in more countries. I don’t believe this is just pre-orders and only focused on 1-2 countries. It reads like this is the entire pot globally (countries for Day 1, I mean) for launch day. If I’m missing something here, that’s fine.

Sounds a lot better than previous reports either way.
 
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macfacts said:
Apple should have daily lotteries for in store people who line up daily. Nintendo do does this with their Switch console in Japan.
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HA! Apple give away something for free?! Apple: The Dongles & Watchband Company.

That doesn't provide a free wireless charging coaster. Heck, not even a free dongle when they took away the headphond jack.

Anyway... what will happen is they'll somehow miracously ramp up production days before launch... just like "production delays" every single year.

Oh, Nelly! The stuff you fans put up with!! That said, I'm going to stew about my new Samsung Galaxy A5 having non-removable bloatware (a horse of a different colour).
 
Maybe Apple should just manufacture all the iPhones at once, and not ship them until there are enough for everyone.

So, instead of releasing in November, they release them all in April. How would you guys like that, instead?

I mean, it would hurt Apple’s bottom line, but then you guys wouldn’t have to act like the sky is falling if you have to wait 2-3 weeks more than the guy who pre-ordered a few minutes before you.
 
lowendlinux said:
So Apple has about 3 minutes worth of supply, if this is true the internet is going to explode and ebay is going to have lots of $2200 iPhone X's
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You're gonna for sure see this at 12:01AM...
Unknown.png
 
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If we preorder the second it's available and there really are around 12 million available for preorder, there's no way we won't get one on the 3rd or the week following. It won't make any sense otherwise.
 
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Karma*Police said:
If the wait becomes too long, I think a lot of people who miss out on the X will likely opt for the 8/plus.
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No, they will just wait for the X1 or XS or whatever comes out in 2018. If it has enough financial impact on Apple, I bet they don't ever let their supply chain get screwed up like this again.
 
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These “artificial supply constraint” comments......I have never, nor do I know anyone, who didn’t want something (especially something expensive) and then went “you know what? I wasn’t gonna drop a G on something, but everyone else does so I will, because I love spending money on stuff I didn’t want and then waiting for it.” How does Apple benefit by not selling a billon phones as fast as possible? How do they benefit when people don’t buy them because they can’t have them in time for Christmas? This narrative continues to not make sense. There is no “exclusivity” on a product you KNOW will eventually be readily available. Furthermore, if Apple can’t make enough, why launch them in more countries on day one than ever before. If you want to make this narrative more believable, how about “Apple floats news stories that they can’t make enough to drive up demand” THAT makes sense.
 
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KB24Slam said:
If we preorder the second it's available and there really are around 12 million available for preorder, there's no way we won't get one on the 3rd or the week following. It won't make any sense otherwise.
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Agreed. It’s only if you order like half an hour late will the wait be in December/2018
 
maflynn said:
Wasn't Cook supposed to be supply channel expert? I'm not understanding why Apple continually has supply problems, though with the X, it seems more acute.
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Because Supply Chain management is not exactly the same thing as manufacturing, though I do see your confusion. Supply chain is more about getting already manufactured devices from point A to point B (customer); whereas, this is more of a limited production issue, or so it's said to be.

12 million sounds like enough stock to me for launch day. These devices are expensive/a lot of people will compare it to the 8 once it drops.
 
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willzyx said:
It's an artificial supply problem. They keep the supply low, and everyone will want one. They get to say that they sold out in pre-orders and analysts go ga-ga and stock prices go up. They get to tell everyone that X was the biggest success ever and people who are hearing about supply problems now will surely wait for pre-order to get it in time for the Holidays.
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Tell me, who shot JR?...
 
Just my thoughts but AT&T and Tmobile users will have the toughest time getting one. Where as over priced Verizon users and budget Sprint users will be able to get it easier. Why Verizon service is so over priced users most likely are not going to spend $1000+ for a phone. Sprint users are there for the budget / low cost servers and probably are less likely to spend $1000+ on a phone. Now AT&T and Tmobile they both have the bulk of the users and will probably get more stock but still not be enough. Just my thought...
 
To Apple about the scalpers: Put in controls to reduce the amount of scalping that happens during this release. When you limit to just 2 devices per transaction, that just make the scalper go back in line and get another two. For the initial sale of these phones limit one purchase of the phone in person and require the person to activate the phone at point of sale and sign in with their apple id. I think that is extremely reasonable. I don't understand why scalpers are tolerated at all. The ones for the iPhone 8 here in Seattle were so obvious that it was irritating to see them with bags of iPhones and just moving their folding chair to the back of the line to purchase more.
 
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frankly said:
Unless Ming-Chi Kuo has a different definition of 10k than we do, there is no way in the world that Apple has only been making 10,000 iPhone X models per day. If that is true, it would take them over 3 years to have built up 12 million in opening stock. You really need to get your story straight./
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Old news is old.

It could've been around 10,000 a day at first in early Sept when he reported that, and then later slowly increased as the assemblers got more experienced.

Foxconn usually runs about 100 assembly lines for launches, so it makes sense that a new phone would start with only 100 per line per day (10,000/day).

And then over the month of September ramp up to about 3,000 per line per day (10 million a month predicted in Oct)... or by adding more lines if it takes more time to build each one.
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Then again, who knows if this new analyst is right about 10 million in October? Perhaps there are parts constraints that will prevent it.

I guess we'll find out soon!
 
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acctman said:
Just my thoughts but AT&T and Tmobile users will have the toughest time getting one. Where as over priced Verizon users and budget Sprint users will be able to get it easier. Why Verizon service is so over priced users most likely are not going to spend $1000+ for a phone. Sprint users are there for the budget / low cost servers and probably are less likely to spend $1000+ on a phone. Now AT&T and Tmobile they both have the bulk of the users and will probably get more stock but still not be enough. Just my thought...
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Are you thinking of those that purchase a "payment plan" for the iPhone? I purchased mine outright and just swapped my chip from my old phone into my new phone. I'm on T-Mobile.
 
jlseattle said:
require the person to activate the phone at point of sale and sign in with their apple id. I think that is extremely reasonable.
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I don’t know... me personally would like to take my iPhone and do an unboxing in a setting of my own. I understand that scalpers can be annoying, but I just take it for what it is.. perhaps it’s on the person who agrees to pay an outrageous price to buy it.

As long as people buys into what the scalpers are selling... scalpers will obviously take advantage of it.
 
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