Good analysis. That's sort of the model with the home computer as the mother ship and the iPods, burned CDs, .Mac photo books, etc., as the satellites. The closet model doesn't really change anything; it just moves the mother ship from the desktop to a "home server."
I just don't see that things really change when the TV becomes a smart device, i.e., just another appendage of the home computer/internet device/media center. At the moment, it sounds like the question is whether Apple envisions the .Mac server -- as directed by the user online -- is an integral part of the TV content development plan.