Expected longer wait times than 5-6 weeks for the iPhone X

iBrooker

macrumors 6502
Original poster
Nov 20, 2016
395
209
Wales
Day 1 and the wait has only gone up to 5-6 weeks. I thought there would be more demand than this for a £1000 'phone of the future' with waits until at least the beginning of next year...

Remember the Nintendo Wii? That was a product in demand!! It took three years (https://www.cnet.com/uk/news/nintendo-wii-supply-finally-catches-up-to-demand) for supply to catch up with demand :eek: :D o_O ;) :apple: :p :)
 

Starfyre

macrumors 68030
Nov 7, 2010
2,738
970
I can’t see how Nintendo shareholders can possibly be happy with that.
 

kadify

macrumors regular
Oct 26, 2017
117
23
I agree. I was expecting a wait similar to when the iPhone 6 and 6+ were first released but looks like apple either learned their lesson and stocked up more, or the demand isn't as crazy as it was a few years ago for a larger phone. Who knows? Either way, 5-6 weeks still isn't anything to scoff at. That's right before the holiday season and I'm sure apple is still getting preorders now.
 

TravisPNW

macrumors 6502a
Sep 15, 2017
626
878
Renton, WA
I'd imagine there would have been a lot higher demand if there weren't an 8/8 Plus option available with identical internal hardware.

I'd wager I'm not the only one who was happy with the 6/7/8 design and Touch ID and wasn't doing ZOMG cartwheels over a different form factor that didn't have a Plus size available.
 

joeblow7777

macrumors 603
Sep 7, 2010
5,966
6,755
Day 1 and the wait has only gone up to 5-6 weeks. I thought there would be more demand than this for a £1000 'phone of the future' with waits until at least the beginning of next year...

Remember the Nintendo Wii? That was a product in demand!! It took three years (https://www.cnet.com/uk/news/nintendo-wii-supply-finally-catches-up-to-demand) for supply to catch up with demand :eek: :D o_O ;) :apple: :p :)
People really bought into all the media hype and speculation. Apple knew how high the demand for this phone would be and they wouldn’t have scheduled a November launch if the initial wave of orders was going to take many months to fill.
 

Koobs

macrumors 6502
Sep 20, 2014
347
548
I agree with OP. We kept reading/hearing that preorders would slip into 2018 rather quickly.
 
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psun786

macrumors member
Jul 9, 2013
39
31
There is clearly less demand for iPhone X than what most predicted. I highly doubt Kuo' s 200~300m initial shipment is off since he's number is based on the hardware supplier data. Both first gen Apple watch and Airpods had a worst wait than iPhone x. I remember it took almost a year for Apple to catch up Airpods demand. Heck, even the piano black IPhone 7 had a longer wait initially.


1. IPhone X moved into a new price market. Apple basically has to convenice their existing customer base to join. It is not easy especially at the beginning. Also, higher the price, smaller than market.

2. Competition. Apple is facing much more competition then one or two years ago. Just look at how many Chinese companies are producing decent quality phone at a much more affordable price. $500 Chinese brand android probably can do 90% of what iPhone X does. You also have Samsung, which is no less innovating than Apple.

3. Apple 8 and postponed X launch. I personally think this is the worst idea from a marketing perspective. The general public can easily get confused. Potiential X buyers with enough budget may get 8 instead because they thought 8 is the iPhone of the year. 8 following 7 and it is released the exact same time as previous years. Many people don't even know what iPhone X is. Others don't want to spend over a thousand on a phone may decided against 8 because they don't want to pay premium price for an inferior product. Also, launching a product a month after announcement is not helping. You basically lost most of the hype and excitement generated by the event. I am not surprised some people even forget to preorder on the first day.
 

Chupa Chupa

macrumors G5
Jul 16, 2002
14,830
7,369
There is clearly less demand for iPhone X than what most predicted. I highly doubt Kuo' s 200~300m initial shipment is off since he's number is based on the hardware supplier data. Both first gen Apple watch and Airpods had a worst wait than iPhone x. I remember it took almost a year for Apple to catch up Airpods demand. Heck, even the piano black IPhone 7 had a longer wait initially.
Where did Kuo predict 200-300m as an initial shipment? I find that hard to believe as Apple sold 200m iPhones for ALL of 2016. There is no way Kuo was suggesting Apple would sell as many X's in one quarter as it sold ALL iPhone models last year. Kuo's last estimate was that Apple would ship 30m 1Q (Oct-Dec 2017), 10-20m shy of original estimates, because of production issues.

Also using backorder status as a benchmark for product popularity makes zero sense. If a company can make 100K units per day of product A and it's backordered for 10 weeks that is 1m units. OTOH if a company can only make 100 units per day of product B and it's backordered for 50 weeks that is 5k units.

Product B is backordered longer than Product A but production is smaller than Product A. Product A is clearly more popular than B despite B being harder to get longer.

So unless we know exactly how many iPhone X's and how many AirPods Apple could make in a day at each products launch and how many were sold/ordered it's a meaningless comparison. Same goes for the Jet Black 7 which Apple said had serious production issues at launch and did not have the inventory levels the other colors initially.
 

psun786

macrumors member
Jul 9, 2013
39
31
Where did Kuo predict 200-300m as an initial shipment? I find that hard to believe as Apple sold 200m iPhones for ALL of 2016. There is no way Kuo was suggesting Apple would sell as many X's in one quarter as it sold ALL iPhone models last year. Kuo's last estimate was that Apple would ship 30m 1Q (Oct-Dec 2017), 10-20m shy of original estimates, because of production issues.

Also using backorder status as a benchmark for product popularity makes zero sense. If a company can make 100K units per day of product A and it's backordered for 10 weeks that is 1m units. OTOH if a company can only make 100 units per day of product B and it's backordered for 50 weeks that is 5k units.

Product B is backordered longer than Product A but production is smaller than Product A. Product A is clearly more popular than B despite B being harder to get longer.

So unless we know exactly how many iPhone X's and how many AirPods Apple could make in a day at each products launch and how many were sold/ordered it's a meaningless comparison. Same goes for the Jet Black 7 which Apple said had serious production issues at launch and did not have the inventory levels the other colors initially.
Sorry, its a typo. what I mean is 2,000,000~3,000,000 units.

No, I said the demand is higher than the supply for Airpods, Apple watch or iPhone 7 jet black than iPhone X during initial launch. Regardless how many Apple is producing (1 or 1000), they can't keep up with the order. My assumption is regarding order fulfill rate, not popularity. All I am saying is people predicted there is going to a huge gap between quantity supplied and demanded during launch for iPhone X which turn out to be not so true base on wait time.
 

saltd

macrumors 6502a
Aug 1, 2010
759
346
Day 1 and the wait has only gone up to 5-6 weeks. I thought there would be more demand than this for a £1000 'phone of the future' with waits until at least the beginning of next year...

Remember the Nintendo Wii? That was a product in demand!! It took three years (https://www.cnet.com/uk/news/nintendo-wii-supply-finally-catches-up-to-demand) for supply to catch up with demand :eek: :D o_O ;) :apple: :p :)
Nintendo is the undisputed king of limited supply issues. Very sadistic company-no one else even comes close.
 

Chupa Chupa

macrumors G5
Jul 16, 2002
14,830
7,369
Sorry, its a typo. what I mean is 2,000,000~3,000,000 units.

No, I said the demand is higher than the supply for Airpods, Apple watch or iPhone 7 jet black than iPhone X during initial launch. Regardless how many Apple is producing (1 or 1000), they can't keep up with the order. My assumption is regarding order fulfill rate, not popularity. All I am saying is people predicted there is going to a huge gap between quantity supplied and demanded during launch for iPhone X which turn out to be not so true base on wait time.
Right but unless you can fill in the variables of production rate and orders (demand) it’s a meaningless comparison. We have no idea how many pairs of AirPods Apple could make last winter and spring or how many orders it received. Same for the X right now.
 

Technarchy

macrumors 604
May 21, 2012
6,747
4,885
I agree with OP. We kept reading/hearing that preorders would slip into 2018 rather quickly.
It’s probably going to be a rolling 5 or 6 weeks from here on out. Christmas shopping season is coming up fast and the X is going to be a big stocking stuffer.
 

DJosche

macrumors regular
Jul 10, 2017
249
146
It’s probably going to be a rolling 5 or 6 weeks from here on out. Christmas shopping season is coming up fast and the X is going to be a big stocking stuffer.
Do you think it will extend further than 6 weeks?
 

kimguroo

macrumors member
Oct 23, 2007
75
6
Factories are fully operating and looks like IPhone 8 and 8 plus line production were dramatically cut and more focused on IPhone X so if more than 6 weeks might be really serious demanding for iPhone X.
I will be very surprised by that much explosive demand for iPhone x because of maturing cellphone business.
If that’s the case, I will be more happy since Apple stock will be skyrocketing haha.
 

bevsb2

macrumors 68000
Nov 23, 2012
1,637
527
Bad news for scalpers. How many will pay exorbitant prices if they can get the phone at retail in a few weeks?
 
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mdawid

macrumors regular
Mar 14, 2011
184
59
Bad news for scalpers. How many will pay exorbitant prices if they can get the phone at retail in a few weeks?
Good. I don’t feel for the scalpers at all. I understand the whole capitalist approach, but it still doesn’t make it right. And people who are willing to pay a substantial premium just to get instant gratification fuel the system. Oh well.
 

saltd

macrumors 6502a
Aug 1, 2010
759
346
If it wasn’t priced so high I would have got it
I guarantee you’re not the only one. I have felt from the announcement onwards, that this would scare a number of prudent folks off. Sadly, I am not that prudent-but I do believe that many were given pause before hitting the submit order button. If the phone were priced at 799-950, then they’d have been pushed wayyyy back by now.
 

Mr.Bigglesworth

macrumors regular
Sep 9, 2016
130
207
I can’t see how Nintendo shareholders can possibly be happy with that.
Because Artificial Scarcity is what sells.

I used to work at Circuit City back in those days with the launch of the Wii and let me tell you that for about 4 years we would never be able to hold stock on them.

Nintendo would only ship us like 6-14 at a time.

But yet we would have 80-150+ people waiting outside in line everytime we would announce in the flyer that we where getting them.

Artificial Scarcity is how you’re guaranteed to NOT have any product sitting on shelves collecting dust. Product will sell. Because as soon as it’s available, the herds will come and take all of it and they will gladly pay top dollar for it. That’s a manufactures dream scenario.

BUT. Only Companies that have the cleverness can Pull this off. A lot try and it fails. Apple/Nintendo creates and offers things to people that they think they need and want. And then go ahead and put a “ extremely limited “ tag on it. That drives people insane.

“ Sorry we are sold out and we don’t know when we will get anymore. This is a hot item and the damand is through the roof “ is music to an investors ears.
[doublepost=1509156573][/doublepost]
the real issue is u all fell for all the shortage hype that was manufactured by bloggers...lol

No, it actually is short.

You and everyone else seem to think that 5-6 weeks is like 5-6 days.

Dude you’re talking about nearly 2 months waiting for this thing.

Get the entire Fûck out of here. No one on their right minds will be okay with waiting that long for something they just dropped $1000+ for.
 

Treyhunna

macrumors regular
Jan 2, 2017
178
93
Because Artificial Scarcity is what sells.

I used to work at Circuit City back in those days with the launch of the Wii and let me tell you that for about 4 years we would never be able to hold stock on them.

Nintendo would only ship us like 6-14 at a time.

But yet we would have 80-150+ people waiting outside in line everytime we would announce in the flyer that we where getting them.

Artificial Scarcity is how you’re guaranteed to NOT have any product sitting on shelves collecting dust. Product will sell. Because as soon as it’s available, the herds will come and take all of it and they will gladly pay top dollar for it. That’s a manufactures dream scenario.

BUT. Only Companies that have the cleverness can Pull this off. A lot try and it fails. Apple/Nintendo creates and offers things to people that they think they need and want. And then go ahead and put a “ extremely limited “ tag on it. That drives people insane.

“ Sorry we are sold out and we don’t know when we will get anymore. This is a hot item and the damand is through the roof “ is music to an investors ears.
[doublepost=1509156573][/doublepost]


No, it actually is short.

You and everyone else seem to think that 5-6 weeks is like 5-6 days.

Dude you’re talking about tharly 2 months waiting for this thing.

Get the entire Fûck out of here. No one on their right minds will be okay with waiting that long for something they just dropped $1000+ for.

the price is irrelevant, if it was half that and still high demand, it makes no difference.

2nd 5-6 weeks isn't 2 months. its a month and some change. hype was saying early 2018...lmao
 

myscrnnm

macrumors 65816
Sep 16, 2014
1,379
792
Seattle, WA
Honestly I was quite surprised as well. I think Ming-Chi Kuo overhyped the scarcity of iPhone X supplies. But I think with deliveries going to December after a day is a good balance of getting the publicity of healthy demand while at the same time having sufficient supply for the holiday season.
 

flat five

macrumors 603
Feb 6, 2007
5,568
2,589
newyorkcity
the price is irrelevant, if it was half that and still high demand, it makes no difference.

2nd 5-6 weeks isn't 2 months. its a month and some change. hype was saying early 2018...lmao
the 2018 Kuo thing is likely true.. i think you may have misunderstood what was said.. he was saying it would be into 2018 prior to the supply/sales stabilizing..

in other words-- until you can readily walk into a store and buy one and/or order one online that's in stock.
 

RtWrecklezX

macrumors member
Apr 13, 2009
90
82
Agree with OP i was expecting 7-8 weeks and 3000 dollar resellers. It's funny Apple killed its super cycle with choice.