Expected longer wait times than 5-6 weeks for the iPhone X

[JPack]

Honestly I was quite surprised as well. I think Ming-Chi Kuo overhyped the scarcity of iPhone X supplies. But I think with deliveries going to December after a day is a good balance of getting the publicity of healthy demand while at the same time having sufficient supply for the holiday season.

The supply of iPhone X is scarce, but the demand is also scarce. Many people overestimate the demand for the X, especially forum posters.

Outside of MacRumors and 9to5Mac, the typical iPhone 6 or 7 Plus owner isn't into the hype. Compared to an existing iPhone, the X performs the same functions differently. But not necessarily better, at least not in the eyes of most consumers.

 

[flat five]

Agree with OP i was expecting 7-8 weeks and 3000 dollar resellers. It's funny Apple killed its super cycle with choice.

the X super cycle has yet to happen.

us early adopters are just going to act as megaphones towards the masses that will be buying this thing over the next year..

probably only 10% of X buyers have already bought.

 

[44267547]

The supply of iPhone X is scarce, but the demand is also scarce. Many people overestimate the demand for the X, especially forum posters.

Outside of MacRumors and 9to5Mac, the typical iPhone 6 or 7 Plus owner isn't into the hype. Compared to an existing iPhone, the X performs the same functions differently. But not necessarily better, at least not in the eyes of most consumers.

Just going off my own consensus, the one feature that most are drawn into would be Face ID. I think it has a lot of unknown factors and it's new technology, which seemingly seems to be more intriguing over anything else. Given that OLED is nice, but most average consumers don't care about that. It's just the fact this is a new iPhone like every year with a lot of hype that overtakes some and can be contagious on a tech forum.

 

[JPack]

the X super cycle has yet to happen.

us early adopters are just going to act as megaphones towards the masses that will be buying this thing over the next year..

probably only 10% of X buyers have already bought.

Quarterly sales performance of a new iPhone decrease as the product ages. Early adopters set the peak sales numbers for Apple. Regardless of what Apple says, $999 is not a mass market price.

 

[flat five]

Quarterly sales performance of a new iPhone decrease as the product ages. Early adopters set the peak sales numbers for Apple. Regardless of what Apple says, $999 is not a mass market price.

i think you should use phrases such as:

"i assume"
"my guess is..."
"in my opinion"
etc.


... a lot more often in your posts.
you speak as if your voice is authoritative.. with the problem being-- i think you start to believe yourself.

 

[RtWrecklezX]

the X super cycle has yet to happen.

us early adopters are just going to act as megaphones towards the masses that will be buying this thing over the next year..

probably only 10% of X buyers have already bought.

I don't believe there will be one. Based on info we have now. Reportedly Apple will stick to the form factor for 3 years. The next projected huge base upgrade would be then. Unless they change that strategy, but based on the trends of recent apple products i don't expect any surprises. 5G next year could be a big selling point.

 

[flat five]

I don't believe there will be one. Based on info we have now. Reportedly Apple will stick to the form factor for 3 years. The next projected huge base upgrade would be then. Unless they change that strategy, but based on the trends of recent apple products i don't expect any surprises. 5G next year could be a big selling point.

yeah, i think there are some weird assumptions going on here.. as if most iPhone owners are pre-orderers..

i know probably 50 iPhone owners.. i know only one who preorders-- myself.
most, by far, iPhone owners don't buy their phones around launch.

 

[redman042]

We don’t have enough information to judge product demand here. We don’t know how many units they made, not which analysts if any have accurate numbers.

 

[meldea]

If I remember correctly, there was a recent article about how Apple would begin shifting production lines after the pre-order. That's probably why there's a firewall at the 5-to-6 week mark — it's telling us that this is when they will be ready to produce millions of X units per week.

 

[JPack]

Just going off my own consensus, the one feature that most are drawn into would be Face ID. I think it has a lot of unknown factors and it's new technology, which seemingly seems to be more intriguing over anything else. Given that OLED is nice, but most average consumers don't care about that. It's just the fact this is a new iPhone like every year with a lot of hype that overtakes some and can be contagious on a tech forum.

I would compare Face ID to wireless charging. Both are new and exciting features, but does it offer a substantially different experience? Most consumers would hesitate, especially for $999.

If there were a substantial user interface change or app design for iPhone X, it would sell much better. Face ID is used almost solely for authentication. After unlocking, the iPhone X and iPhone 6/7/8 have the same experience. After a phone is charged via wireless, the experience is the same. On MacRumors, we can point to OLED, Animoji, AR, but those aren't killer features.

 

[44267547]

We don’t have enough information to judge product demand here. We don’t know how many units they made, not which analysts if any have accurate numbers.

Being this iPhone launch is a staggered , it also is going to change the spectrum of how this new iPhone sells on a different level conspired to the iPhone 8. But since we are Leading into the holidays, it's only going to continue to expand in orders throughout the rest of 2017.
[doublepost=1509169527][/doublepost]

I would compare Face ID to wireless charging. Both are new and exciting features, but does it offer a substantially different experience? Most consumers would hesitate, especially for $999.

If there were a substantial user interface change or app design for iPhone X, it would sell much better. Face ID is used almost solely for authentication. After unlocking, the iPhone X and iPhone 6/7/8 have the same experience. After a phone is charged via wireless, the experience is the same. On MacRumors, we can point to OLED, Animoji, AR, but those aren't killer features.

I don't disagree. But you have those who can only speculate what Face ID is like until they use it, because it's new technology that's offered and it has the euphoria of something "Different" attached. But I do agree that the user interface with the interaction of the dislay would be similar, with the exception of Gesture controls versus having a home button.

As far as augmented reality, that simply in its infancy. I don't have any interest in something like this at this point, but over time, that will continue to expand. But I do think it's interesting technology and how it demos the potential of the iPhone camera.

 

[JPack]

i think you should use phrases such as:

"i assume"
"my guess is..."
"in my opinion"
etc.


... a lot more often in your posts.
you speak as if your voice is authoritative.. with the problem being-- i think you start to believe yourself.

Has there been a substantial change in Apple leadership? Perhaps strategy or investment? Unless you have reason to believe the cyclic nature of iPhone sales has changed abruptly, a decade of past performance is the best predictor.

 

[flat five]

On MacRumors, we can point to OLED, Animoji, AR, but those aren't killer features.

we got into this before but apparently there's no changing your perception so.. i won't get into it again.

i will say this though-- if you think MacRumors readers represent the typical Apple customer.. or that MacRumors readers are more likely to buy an Apple product since they're fanatics (or whatever) while the rest of the population won't be like that then..

then you also think it's us MacRumors users who are contributing to the bulk of Apple becoming a trillion dollar company..
do you believe that to be the case?

or is it more like MacRumors members are likely contributing only a tiny slice to Apple's pie and the rest of the buyers don't post here and don't think like members here?

because, to me, i think it's the latter.. and that this place isn't really a good gauge of reality of who & why people buy iPhones..

---------
Animoji and Front facing portrait modes are killer features of iPhone X.. believe it or not.
[doublepost=1509170362][/doublepost]

Has there been a substantial change in Apple leadership? Perhaps strategy or investment? Unless you have reason to believe the cyclic nature of iPhone sales has changed abruptly, a decade of past performance is the best predictor.

good idea..

CUPERTINO, California—September 22, 2014— Apple® today announced it has sold over 10 million new iPhone® 6 and iPhone 6 Plus models, a new record, just three days after the launch on September 19.

Number of iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 plus pre-orders in the first 24 hours 4,000,000

Total number of iPhone 6 units sold to date 219,750,000
​

----
you see? or still no?

 

[JPack]

Animoji and Front facing portrait modes are killer features of iPhone X.. believe it or not.

Those "killer" features you describe... Apple spent about 3 minutes demonstrating Animoji during their September keynote. And they spent a total of 10 seconds on the iPhone X describing portrait mode and lighting.

Sorry, your assertion doesn't pass the sanity test. Either that or Apple has no idea how to market their "killer" features by sandwiching them towards the middle and end of their presentations.

 

[flat five]

Sorry, your assertion doesn't pass the sanity test. Either that or Apple has no idea how to market their "killer" features by sandwiching them towards the middle and end of their presentations.

i seriously don't think i'm getting through to you.

the people who will find these features desirable ---> do not watch keynotes.

again, try to imagine how much larger Apple is than macRumors/keynote watchers/3AM pre-orderers.
[doublepost=1509173206][/doublepost]

Those "killer" features you describe... Apple spent about 3 minutes demonstrating Animoji during their September keynote. And they spent a total of 10 seconds on the iPhone X describing portrait mode and lighting.

look at the last few ads from Apple:

you see? or still no?

 

[JPack]

i seriously don't think i'm getting through to you.

the people who will find these features desirable ---> do not watch keynotes.

again, try to imagine how much larger Apple is than macRumors/keynote watchers/3AM pre-orderers.

The people invited to the Apple event are conventional media and social media influencers. This includes everyone from USA Today to BGR. They relay the message to typical consumers.

You really have a myopic view of communications in general.

 

[flat five]

The people invited to the Apple event are conventional media and social media influencers. This includes everyone from USA Today to BGR. They relay the message to typical consumers.

You really have a myopic view of communications in general.

ok

 

[JPack]

look at the last few ads from Apple:

Thanks for proving my point. I didn't have time to look up the iPhone X ads.

Ad attention span for millennials is about 8-12 seconds. Where has Apple has focused their marketing attention in that short window? Slim bezel, rear camera, lack of home button, full glass display, and wireless charging.

 

[scaramoosh]

Bad news for scalpers. How many will pay exorbitant prices if they can get the phone at retail in a few weeks?

Lots of us bid stupid amounts and never pay up, it's the only way to beat them.

 

[flat five]

Ad attention span for millennials is about 8-12 seconds. Where has Apple has focused their marketing attention in that short window? Slim bezel, rear camera, lack of home button, full glass display, and wireless charging.

lol..
you're an expert at everything.
awesome.

let's quit talking. ok?
cya

 

[JPack]

lol..
you're an expert at everything.
awesome.

let's quit talking. ok?
cya

It's okay, debate and intelligent discussion requires effort. Not hand-waving arguments and posting YouTube clips without forethought.

Bye!

 

[flat five]

It's okay, debate and intelligent discussion requires effort.

no.. in this case, it requires zero effort.

you will be proven wrong about iPhone X having no killer features.
unarguably proven wrong.

it makes no difference to me if i convince you today or, when it becomes all too obvious to you in 6 months..

 

[JPack]

no.. in this case, it requires zero effort.

you will be proven wrong about iPhone X having no killer features.
unarguably proven wrong.

it makes no difference to me if i convince you today or, when it becomes all too obvious to you in 6 months..

Back so soon with more hand-waving arguments?

Apple should hire you for their marketing team. They've got it all wrong by placing two "killer" features in the second half of their 1 minute iPhone X ad.

 

[Mr.Bigglesworth]

Wait

the price is irrelevant, if it was half that and still high demand, it makes no difference.

2nd 5-6 weeks isn't 2 months. its a month and some change. hype was saying early 2018...lmao

This was just on day 1 for pre orders. There a lot of people out there that want this phone and don’t even know that it’s availble for pre order yet. Day 1 and the damn thing is back ordered into December 6th. Give it a few days and you’ll get a 2018 shipment date.

Especially if the phone will become a hit. Which it will.

Everyone is sleeping on the iPhone X. Man are those people will slow feet going to go absolutely insane when they can’t get their hands on it after playing with yours or mine come next Friday.

That’s when artificial scarcity comes in. “ you can’t get it. It’s sold out world wide and not available until December “ In comes the madness.

 

[NovemberWhiskey]

Despite what all the sensationalist journalists are saying, there was definitely more stock than anticipated. At 12:34 AM you could still get a Verizon 64GB SG model for in store pickup. It was just sitting there. It took at least 15 minutes to slip to 2-3 weeks, and then 30 minutes to slip to 4-5. It took maybe an hour for in store pickup to become unavailable.

From my memory, the Jet Black 7 Plus was much more limited, and shipping estimates slipped within a few minutes with no in store pickup units available.

Now whether it’s higher supply, or lower demand, I don’t know. But the X was a lot easier to get than anticipated. My confirmation emails were 12:04, 06, and 08 and I was still able to get Nov 3 deliveries, albeit the last one was forced to be an in store pickup.

I also think Apple allocated more units to stores for in store pickup this time. I don’t recall this being an option in past years.