TaKashMoney said:
Am I missing critical details here? For all those who say a macmini is way too underpowered for DVR and would have to be much more expensive to function properly, the current 80 gb TiVo costs $220 (without the discount, apparently you can get it for 60 bucks now). How is a full-functioning mac-mini not powerful enough to do what a $200 machine has been doing for years?
Because you're not making a correct comparison.
The Mac is useful without a service contract, but a service contract is required to make the TiVO useful.
For TiVO, you're in for at least $156 ($13 per month with a one year commitment required) or their $299 "lifetime" fee in addition to the "sticker price" of the product, so a "$200 machine" is really a $356 - $499 machine.
High-Def may be an issue but its certainly not a large enough deterrant from such a large market space. I feel this rumor is definitely plausible.
Glad you mentioned this, as what I've not seen mentioned in skimming this thread is any meaningful discussion on the following:
NTSC IS ON ITS WAY OUT. HIGH DEFINITION TV (ATSC) IS HERE.
So for anyone who's looking at getting into the television market, the transition from HDTV to ATSC (digital television) is a huge technology transition that's occurring *right now*.
As such, this is the wrong time to be introducing a new product that is NTSC, because it is a technology that will be 100% obsolete in 35 months from right now.
On February 8th, President Bush signed Congressional legislation that set a hard deadline for transitioning to digital television ("DTV") legislation when the House on February 1 passed budget reconciliation legislation that includes provisions requiring TV broadcasters to relinquish their analog spectrum by February 17, 2009.
This legislation also provides up to $1.5 billion to assist consumers in purchasing DTV converter boxes that will allow their analog TV sets to receive digital signals after the transition is completed.
Now consider how many people out there have standard (NTSC) television sets, which over the next 18 months are going to start to really, really seriously think about getting an "HD Box" (ATSC receiver) to avoid the cost of replacing their TV's.
Note that while they might buy a new Plasma for the Den,
all legacy TV's have to have a converter box, or else they'll head to the landfill.
This is known as a "must buy".
FWIW, I've looked at getting an ATSC receiver box for a legacy TV. Do you have any idea how EXPENSIVE these things are today? The cheap ones are roughly $200 each. For example, Amazon.com has the "HUMAX Digital ATSC TV Tuner for HDTV Reception" for $204, which isn't the latest generation chipset.
Therefore:
Think "next generation High-Definition TiVO with ATSC Receiver built in"
Think $1.5B federal hardware subsidies.
Think Apple looking for their next Killer product.
YMMV, but given the adoption rate curve of the iPod to use as a business model, *right now* is the right time to introduct a convergence device of an ATSC receiver with High Definition TV "TiVO" recording capabilities.
It doesn't even have to perform the "personal computer" role in the conventional scheme of things, but between iTunes music and Front Row & video teleconferencing, it probably would be.
And combined with an upgrade to .MAC to include TiVO-like programming, you then have your monthly revenue stream to help limit hardware costs above and beyond however much the Fed's kick in. The business opportunity here is very, very interesting ... and compelling to bust open the marketplace.
-hh