sushi said:
Not exactly. Go back and listen to his speach.
He mentions, if memory servers, 64-128MB sized flash players.
Okay, I went back and listened to the speech he gave at MWSF 2004 where he introduced the iPod mini. He neither dismisses all flash-based MP3 players for getting put in a drawer and not used, not does he dismiss 64-128 MB flash players.
What he does do is separate the flash-based player market into two portions: the low-end (under $100), and the high-end (between $100 and $200). And he does deride the low-end flash players for getting put in a drawer and not used. He avoids mentioning memory capacity until he starts talking about the 256 MB high-end flash players in preparation for announcing the iPod mini.
Here are the (IMO) pertinent quotes:
"What market share does this give us, in terms of all MP3 players, even the little $50 ones that people buy and never use cuz they only hold, you know, 3 songs..."
"...even including the little $50 jobs..."
"...we look at as the high-end flash market, ... these are flash players that sell between $100 and $200 dollars..."
"...low-end flash market, flash players that sell under $100..."
"...the under $100 flash players get usually put in a drawer and not used because they really only hold 15 songs..."
"...the high-end flash players, if you pay $200, they hold about 60 songs..."
"...if you pay close to $100, they hold 30 songs, and people either do one of two things: they either get a new memory card for it, right?, and spend usually over 200 bucks total to bring it up to 60 songs, or they put it in the drawer and don't use it..."
So, the iPod mini was introduced to go after the high-end flash market. He specifically shows a picture of a Rio and talks about these players with 256 MB, 60 songs, 0.8 - 1.2 inches thickness, $199 price.
His announced market share figures (for entire MP3 player market) were:
31% - iPod
31% - high-end flash players
31% - low-end flash players
7% - other (mostly other HD players that the iPod was in the process of... "eliminating")
Given that the iPod now has 58.6% of the total market, when we last checked, (and note this is less than a year after the iPod mini was introduced), it would seem Apple has been pretty successful in going after that 31% high-end flash-based portion.
If Steve does announce they are now going after the low-end flash player market, it will be quite interesting to hear his argument, and of course what kind of device they'll produce to address it.
There will, of course, be plenty of whiners ("it's too expensive", "it's too big", "it's too small", "it has no card slot", "it has no screen", "it has a screen") (to be fair, plenty of supporters as well) no matter what Steve may (or may not) announce, but let's hope the general buying public does not let the nay-sayers influence their purchasing decision.