They killed ChromeOS and they're going to be using Android for their netbooks. I don't see those devices challenging PCs/Macs anytime soon.
Android and ChromeOS are two birds of the same feather. They are highly modified skinned Linux distributions. There are already decently-running desktop adaptations of Android (ie, Samsung's Dex) that could support a "classic" desktop paradigm without changing anything under the hood. In a sense, ChromeOS is getting killed really in name only - the actual important functionality that it provides different to what Android provides will likely be rolled into Android (if it isn't already there) and Android will become Google's unified platform.
As far as challenging PCs and Macs - that remains to be seen, but do consider a few things:
- The biggest issue facing PC users right now is power consumption. "Desktop" Android could very well bring a very functional ARM-based computing platform to the desktop with support for applications from major software publishers (including Microsoft themselves). ARM-based Windows has continued to stumble (for reasons you yourself have mentioned - legacy stuff).
- Linux has been making gains on the desktop as well, but its biggest weakness continues to be its fragmentation of distros and desktop environments and lack of consumer-facing support. Android could very well be seen by end consumers (whether true or not) as a single unifying alternative PC operating system.
- Many people already use their Android/iOS devices far more than any desktop devices, so the system is familiar and (more importantly) comfortable for users.
I have to disagree with you there. Windows has gotten more bloated, just consider the overhead needed Recall.
Recall and other AI is definitely going to add overhead, so I stand corrected there, however I haven't really found any performance difference between Windows 10 and 11 on my machines. I would expect the same to be the case for any OS that adopts AI tools, however.
Until recently (and it still may be a thing), gamers refused to upgrade because playing games on windows 11 was slower then 10. I understand windows 11 introduced items to improve gaming and so this item may not be relevant, but I remember the complaining on reddit.
Many very vocal gamers did. This is a theme that dates back to the Windows 2000/XP/Vista/7 days though. Gamers always wait to upgrade because they're worried about extra overhead. Whether those worries are warranted has been something that varied over the years. In my experience (as a very casual gamer), the only time an upgrade created a measurable slowdown on the same hardware was when I upgraded from Windows XP to Windows 7.
Windows kernel is based on Windows NT (1993) and its been patched/updated, and new items added on.
Yes, modern Windows is based on a kernel that evolved from the original Windows NT kernel that was released in 1993. Linux and all its variants are based on a kernel that evolved from.. well.. Linux which was first released in 1991. Modern Mac OS and all its descendents is based on a kernel that evolved from the original NeXTSTEP which was first released in 1989 and which itself evolved from Mach and BSD (the latter of which was first developed in the late 1970s).
All modern operating systems are based on "patched/updated" kernels that originated before the mid-1990s.
Considering that that "patched/updated" Windows NT kernel powers everything from the Hypervisor hosting all XBox games to most desktop computers to the same Hypervisor underpinning the entirety of Azure itself, I'd say it does pretty good for itself. As do all the other "old iron" operating systems mentioned above.
Basically changes sitting on changes. I mean look at decades of APIs it needs to support, while backwards compatibility is one of windows advantages it has some disadvantages, like having the kernel using so much old APIs and code.
You are right, though, to some extent. Microsoft's approach has been to continue to support a lot of legacy applications, and there is some compromise involved in that, especially when it comes to trying to move Windows to more modern hardware. This is where Apple has had an advantage - they only have one narrow set of hardware to support and relatively few desktop application vendors to corral, so when they want to change something drastic (like dropping 32-bit support), they can do so with relatively little risk.
Of course, you can see the other side of that compromise, though. Every major change Microsoft tries to make (like dropping support for relateively old hardware) is met with some serious push-back. On top of that, Microsoft has to support some pretty old applications (for instance, the consulting firm I work for still uses Lotus Notes - though we are working our way off of it. 30 years of legacy is very hard to migrate, especially when no direct equivalent actually exists and you have to change an entire set of your company's core business processes to adapt to a new system).
That being said - at least as recently as Windows 10, Microsoft has done quite a good job at walking that tightrope. Windows is a very stable secure operating system that performs well on most relatively modern hardware.
Back when windows NT was a thing, it was using a trusted local computer and not zero-trust and always connected - an issue that Microsoft continually fights with its zero-day patching. ITs a monolithic design, so issues there will shut down the entire system and kernel mode access for applications. If memory serves me, this was the very reasons why Crowdstrike shut the entire PC world down, it had access and there was a bug, so PCs just shutdown
The real issue with Crowdstrike was not so much that the NT kernel is monolithic, but that Microsoft allows software companies to access the kernel for things like EPDR software (Crowdstrike and WatchGuard being two major EPDR systems). There are actually advantages to allowing those systems access to the kernel (and some are very imporant advantages, especially for systems like Crowdstrike), but as Crowdstrike illustrated, there are also some serious disadvantages. Ironically, the outage was not actually a "bug" per se, but was Crowdstrike doing exactly what it was designed to do (stop suspected malware - including possibly compromized kernel-level drivers - from executing at boot-up). It all came about because what was basically a signature update tagged a valid Windows system file as malware and caused it to be blocked, effectively bricking the system.
I do suspect that this is one aspect of Windows we will see changed in the (relatively) near future. Part of the reason why Microsoft is pushing so hard for ending support on older hardware likely stems from some of the security issues that come from supporting older hardware. TPM is part of that puzzle, but also eliminating CPUs that have known security exploits as well (remember Spectre and Meltdown).
As an aside, Windows NT is not as monolithic as you imply here.
It was actually designed as a hybrid kernel and followed some of the same design philosophy as the Mach kernel that Mac OS is based on. It is probably a bit more monolithic than Mac OS, but it is actually less monolithic than Linux, for example.
There's more but suffice to say that the kernel which dates back to Windows NT is showing its age, and sagging under all of the new technology and changes
There is definitely some legacy code in the Windows NT kernel that survives to this day (and has to for compatibility's sake), but it is just that - a compromise - and there are a great many people (myself included) that prefer the enhanced compatibility of modern Windows over the "break it and make the customers live with it" approach that Apple takes.