The drilling incident neatly increases the stake for just about everyone involved. My wild speculations.
These are good takes, but given that the show is more Space Opera than traditional Sci-Fi I would not be surprised if we saw one or more dramatic alternatives:
Ed and Danny: I would be shocked if one of them makes it out. Ed has surprised us in both of the two previous seasons with unsung heroic acts. I suspect he will pull up another heroic act that will wake up Danny.
My money is on a Danny redemption in the form of a surprise sacrifice to save Ed/everyone. He's a character in a lot of pain and I don't see many paths where his emotional crisis wouldn't just continue if Ed died and he had to go back home disgraced and having to face Karen. He's on a tragic hero trajectory. That would also provide a good ending to the storyline with his brother, who would be forced to accept the sacrifices made by their parents in the process adding him to the list of people saved by Danny.
Margo and Aleida: As Aleida contemplates turning in Margo, I think the fate of Sergei will trigger Margo to come clean. But not before doing a major damage to Roscosmos leadership.
I can just as easily see a situation where Margo turns the tables on Aleida by framing her to save her skin and keep herself in a position to continue helping Sergei and his family by going back to sharing info with the Russians. OR Just because she will do anything to keep her job even if it means destroying the closest thing she has to family. I think her firing Molly at the start of the season might have been foreshadowing an overall antagonistic turn in her character and we'll see her take Aleida down to get her way.
Molly: She will be back to replace Margo as the head of NASA.
Not sure about this. See above. Plus Molly is an astronaut and pilot, not an engineer or politician like you'd expect as the either Administrator of NASA or the Director of JSC.
Ellen: It seems increasingly likely for Ellen to come out or exposed. She might throw Margo under the bus as a distraction. But Margo's unfortunate fate might trigger Ellen to reconsider.
Ellen will pick things back up with Pam and, one way or the other, it will trigger this history's version of the Clinton Scandal complete with an impeachment trial and investigation. I suspect the distraction will be the reverse. The scandal will be the cover that allows Margo, and whatever actions she takes to secure her job, to fly under the radar... for now.
Kelly: Kelly will discover life on Mars (with namesake David Bowie song blaring), setting up a conflict for the next season, commercialization (Helios) vs. scientific research (NASA).
Pretty spot on I think, but at the same time as discovering life, or discovering the drill blowout destroyed the life, she is going to find out she is pregnant with more than a year left on Mars.
Karen: Karen will set things in motion to start a coup and take over Helios.
Karen, I predict, is going to be given a high ranking position at NASA, possibly an administrative roll over even Margo, because of her business experience in order to streamline and reduce costs by working with the private industry.
