Though I agree with you that the release will not likely come before the end of June, I have to wonder why you think Apple would be so dead set against releasing it in the Spring. I think the timing is based much more on when the new iPhone will come out than on the Earth's location relative to the Sun.
Only because Apple either meets the deadline or misses the deadline. I don't see them releasing it early unless they are really trying to get at the Palm Pre early on. I would LOVE to eat my words and I hope I do, but I just don't see any releases for another few weeks.