Found M4 and M5 Mac identifiers

[Vincent Hanna]

You are wildly overestimating the demand for dual displays. Especially in laptops that cost under $1000 and only have 256GB of storage.

The corporate buyers that care about dual displays will keep on buying the 16/512 MacBook Airs at the unchanged $1199 price point.

 

[tenthousandthings]

All of this assumes the same day, side-by-side launch of the new A18 MacBook with the spec-bumped M5 MacBook Airs. It's the perfect time to align the pricing tiers […]

I don’t think that assumption will hold. I think you’re leaving out a couple of key factors:

[1] The continuing existence of the downmarket strategy exemplified by (but not exclusive to) the deal with Walmart to sell the M1 MacBook Air new, currently available for $599 (originally $699). Indeed, if you’re looking for evidence of an imminent launch of a replacement on this tier, the fact it is now "low stock" and only available in Space Grey (instead of in stock in three colors as of a few months ago) is a sign that the longest production run of a single model in Apple’s long history has come to an end.

[2] This thread began when Mac17,1 appeared on a list of model identifiers being tested with macOS Sequoia in August 2024, so if we’re right that it is the A18 MacBook, a 2025 launch was being considered, alongside what we now know is the M5 MacBook Pro. If Mac17,1 was originally conceived in the way you suggest, to launch alongside M5 MacBook Air in a sort of realignment, it wouldn’t have been on that list.

I think there’s a decent chance the M4 MacBook Air will live on, much like the M2 MacBook Air did after the M3 MacBook Air launched. This A18 MacBook replaces the M1 MacBook Air’s role in that. That’s why the M3 Air was discontinued when the M4 Air launched, it will be displaced by the A18 MacBook. So if they maintain the three-tier approach, you get something similar to this graphic, provided by Apple as part of the Walmart M1 Air description:

 

[Vincent Hanna]

I think you’re putting way too much stock (pun intended) in the existence of the Walmart M1. That $699/$599 device was sold at one retailer, in one country, and 99% of people have no idea it exists. Apple.com and Apple PR make zero mention of it.

The whole point of the low-cost A18 MacBook is a full-fledged product that gives Apple’s official laptop line a lower entry price point worldwide. This is a mass market device in a way the left over M1s at Walmart could never be.

As far as keeping the M4 MacBook Airs around, you still have the problem of the 256 GB drive. Any M-series laptop with that low storage has to be priced under $1000, so then what’s the point of the A18 device at all?

And don’t say consumer choice. Apple wants very clearly defined $200 tiers between all of their laptop products. The only way to introduce a low-cost, plain MacBook and keep the pricing tiers is to move the MacBook Air upmarket as I have described.

 

[tenthousandthings]

I think you’re putting way too much stock (pun intended) in the existence of the Walmart M1. That $699/$599 device was sold at one retailer, in one country, and 99% of people have no idea it exists. Apple.com and Apple PR make zero mention of it.

The whole point of the low-cost A18 MacBook is a full-fledged product that gives Apple’s official laptop line a lower entry price point worldwide. This is a mass market device in a way the left over M1s at Walmart could never be.

As far as keeping the M4 MacBook Airs around, you still have the problem of the 256 GB drive. Any M-series laptop with that low storage has to be priced under $1000, so then what’s the point of the A18 device at all?

And don’t say consumer choice. Apple wants very clearly defined $200 tiers between all of their laptop products. The only way to introduce a low-cost, plain MacBook and keep the pricing tiers is to move the MacBook Air upmarket as I have described.

We will know soon enough. We don’t know how successful the Walmart experiment was, but we do know they were not selling “left over” stock. That’s just not how it works these days. So let’s not belittle what they were doing there. Reaching people who might never have access to an Apple Store.

I’ll admit we also don’t know how successful the experiment(s) were with selling the previous generation of MacBook Air side-by-side with the current generation. Like Apple did for both M2 and M3. I’m arguing that was likely successful, and we will see it again. I think the A18 MacBook fits neatly into this scheme, better than its predecessor.

Likewise, we can only speculate about how Apple Silicon (and TSMC) fits into this — Apple is not a merchant silicon vendor — they need products to absorb left-over capacity, the A-series fits the bill nicely.

 

[Vincent Hanna]

I’ll admit we also don’t know how successful the experiment(s) were with selling the previous generation of MacBook Air side-by-side with the current generation. Like Apple did for both M2 and M3. I’m arguing that was likely successful, and we will see it again. I think the A18 MacBook fits neatly into this scheme, better than its predecessor.

Emphasis added. I am genuinely interested in how you think this is possible. Please build out a simple chart that lists a graduated tier of specs/pricing that allows Apple to sell three sub-$1K laptops: the new A18 MacBook, the previous generation M4 MacBook Air, and the new M5 MacBook Air. I don't see how you can do it without crippling the A18 with only 8GB of RAM. And even then there isn’t room for the previous-gen fM4 MBA.

 

[tenthousandthings]

Emphasis added. I am genuinely interested in how you think this is possible. Please build out a simple chart that lists a graduated tier of specs/pricing that allows Apple to sell three sub-$1K laptops: the new A18 MacBook, the previous generation M4 MacBook Air, and the new M5 MacBook Air. I don't see how you can do it with crippling the A18 with only 8GB of RAM.

[I presume you mean "... without crippling the A18 ..."]

Let's start with the example I illustrated, March 15, 2024, eleven days after the M3 Air launched. The lineup was as follows:

• M1 MacBook Air 13" -- 8GB/256GB -- $699 [Original launch $999 on November 10, 2020 ($899 edu, $799 edu-only edition available with 128GB)]
• M2 MacBook Air 13" -- 8GB/256GB -- $999 ($899 edu) [Upgrade to 16GB or 24GB] [Original launch $1199 on June 6, 2022, cut to $1099 on June 5, 2023]
• M3 MacBook Air 13" -- 8GB/256GB -- $1099 ($999 edu) [15" = $1299 ($1199 edu)] [Upgrade to 16 GB or 24 GB]

The 15" M2 Air was discontinued, but the 13" M2 Air was kept on as a "sub-$1K laptop." It wasn't limited like the M1, you could still get the full range of BTO options. Both the M2 Air and the M3 Air got the 16GB minimum upgrade in October 30, 2024, and both were discontinued on March 5, 2025 when the M4 Air launched.

I don't recall saying there had to be three sub-$1K laptops. The above example doesn't have that either. That's your own requirement. So, the March 2024-March 2025 example, imagine this, for March 3, 2026:

• A18 Pro MacBook 13" -- 16GB/512GB $799 ($699 edu, $599 edu-only edition available with 256GB) [Original launch January 29, 2026]
• M4 MacBook Air 13" -- 16GB/512GB $999 ($899 edu) [Original launch $999 on March 5, 2025 with 256GB] [Upgrade to 24GB or 32GB]
• M5 MacBook Air 13" -- 16GB/512GB $1199 ($1099 edu) [15" = $1399 ($1299 edu)] [Upgrade to 24GB or 32GB]

The 512GB standard is probably wishful thinking, but maybe Apple will do the right thing. The low-end M4 Air doesn't get a price cut, but it does get a storage-spec bump.

 

[deconstruct60]

I don’t think that assumption will hold. I think you’re leaving out a couple of key factors:

....

I think there’s a decent chance the M4 MacBook Air will live on, much like the M2 MacBook Air did after the M3 MacBook Air launched. This A18 MacBook replaces the M1 MacBook Air’s role in that. That’s why the M3 Air was discontinued when the M4 Air launched, it will be displaced by the A18 MacBook. So if they maintain the three-tier approach, you get something similar to this graphic, provided by Apple as part of the Walmart M1 Air description:

It won't be a A18 MacBook. Either A18 Pro or A19 Pro. At this point Apple is using a different die for the 'Pro' A-series. The 'Pro' iPhone models don't last more than a year. This MacBook product is likely going to be a 'hand me down' product so they can run production on the chip for a longer amount of time to recoup more of the investment.

The 'plain' Mn SoC already has at least one 'hand me down' product in the iPad Air.

In the USA the M1 option was pretty hideen. If Apple turns on a spotlight marketing on those more inexpensive Macbook , that likely is going to take a decent number of folks that are in that 799-899 zone out into even more savings. Especially, if it is 'fast enough for most people'. And Apple's SSD pricing (RAM also if it is in anyway an option) likely will push the the Axx Pro model up into that range. ( If Apple gimps or kneecaps the entry storage then the price won't be $599 like either once have attached a decent drive).

 

[Vincent Hanna]

So, the March 2024-March 2025 example, imagine this, for March 3, 2026:

• A18 Pro MacBook 13" -- 16GB/512GB $799 ($699 edu, $599 edu-only edition available with 256GB) [Original launch January 29, 2026]
• M4 MacBook Air 13" -- 16GB/512GB $999 ($899 edu) [Original launch $999 on March 5, 2025 with 256GB] [Upgrade to 24GB or 32GB]
• M5 MacBook Air 13" -- 16GB/512GB $1199 ($1099 edu) [15" = $1399 ($1299 edu)] [Upgrade to 24GB or 32GB]

The 512GB standard is probably wishful thinking, but maybe Apple will do the right thing. The low-end M4 Air doesn't get a price cut, but it does get a storage-spec bump.

16/512 at the $799 price point is absolutely wishful thinking, as it would represent a $400 price drop for that spec combo. Simply not happening, especially as component prices for RAM and SSD are skyrocketing.

This is the point I keep coming back to: you can’t intro the A18 MacBook with a 16/512 option without pushing the MacBook Air up to $1199. Apple’s sacred $200 pricing tiers simply don’t allow it.

And keeping the M4 MacBook Air at the same overlapping price point makes even less sense.

 

[tenthousandthings]

It won't be a A18 MacBook. Either A18 Pro or A19 Pro.

I can’t speak for @Vincent Hanna but I was just using that as shorthand.

If Apple uses A19 (Pro), then my theory goes out the window, because that’s not a ‘hand me down’ (as you put it) at this point. If they use A19 (Pro), then his assumption that it will launch at the same time as the Air is likely, as well as his pricing structure (with the M4 Air discontinued). My entire premise is that Apple has found a low-cost MacBook to be a good outlet for previous-generation silicon, which is presumably less costly to produce than the current generation.

 

[Vincent Hanna]

I, too, was using A18 as shorthand, and not just for the A18 Pro, but really any A-Series chip.

If this new Macbook gets the A19 or A19 Pro instead, it doesn’t change my theory at all. RAM and SSD capacities and pricing are what will define this product’s placement in Apple’s laptop lineup, and in the buying calculation of customers, not the difference between any two A-series SOCs.

To paraphrase @tenthousandthings, “My entire premise is that Apple has found a low (enough) cost MacBook to allow the MacBook Air to move upmarket, which is the only real goal here.”

 

[tenthousandthings]

~

16/512 at the $799 price point is absolutely wishful thinking, as it would represent a $400 price drop for that spec combo.

It wouldn’t be the same machine as the current M4 Air — it would have a Retina display, not Liquid Retina, for example. There would be other compromises as well.

Simply not happening, especially as component prices for RAM and SSD are skyrocketing.

When Apple accounts for that, it will happen across the board.

And keeping the M4 MacBook Air at the same overlapping price point makes even less sense.

I get it, you’re saying the A18 (Pro) MacBook will replace the M4 Air in my projected scheme. That certainly satisfies my requirement that it be an outlet for A18/M4 (TSMC N3E) silicon. What it doesn’t satisfy, however, is the need for an entry-level product that can stand alone outside of the Apple Store environment. Apple is selling quality in that instance, not specs.

I think we just disagree about the purpose of Mac17,1 and thankfully we should know more soon, by March if not before.

 

[Vincent Hanna]

Agreed. We will know everything in March. Will be very interesting to see how it all plays out.

 

[deconstruct60]

….. My entire premise is that Apple has found a low-cost MacBook to be a good outlet for previous-generation silicon, which is presumably less costly to produce than the current generation.

I suspect that is a bit backwards in motivation . I think Apple is searching for a cheaper SoC for a laptop to hit lower pricing and market with less price elasticity . ( e.g., compete with mainstream chrome which Apple has lost share to in a at least a couple markets like education ) The Ann-Pro chips are newer than the M1, but also smaller ( which makes them cheaper to fab if using same process ) . They are stripped of Thunderbolt and other normal PC laptop I/O. There is a decent chance these will be a ‘one port wonder’ . Less ports also means less parts to provision ports and less logic board routing. It won’t be just the SoC where they will be doing cost shavings.

The M1 is old ( so cheaper process and paid for ) , but it is likely over-provisioned for this new “MacBook”. ‘really old’ will likely be the screen tech , camera , and other aspects.

If Apple wanted to keep the ‘$499’ Mini around that would be another optional outlet for ‘old’ plain Mn SoC . It is easier to keep costs down low if dump screen , battery , and keyboard/mouse . But ar least the ports that SoC provisions are actually being used ( and not dead silicon).