Of course, it's only fitting that some of you say "Bring back manufacturing to the US but I'm not going to pay 2 or 3 times more for an Apple product. Just a little more, maybe..." How much more is little? $100 for an iPhone? $500 for a base iMac? How will Apple compete against Samsung, Sony, LG, Toshiba, etc. who are already based in Asia with manufacturing in China, India, Indonesia and other low-cost labor nations?
Foxconn was already discussing moving some of its manufacturing back to Taiwan and making use of robotics. Final assembly, which is what is actually done in China, is only one part of the total cost. You have R&D, component manufacturing, shipping, advertising, retail space, etc. The real problem for US manufacturing, aside from unions and labor costs, is that our infrastructure is often woefully outdated compared to China, which has obviously been investing heavily in this sector for a while now.
Also, why single out Apple for outsourcing? Where do you suppose HP, IBM, Dell, Cisco, EMC, and Motorola, etc. get most of their gear made? What other American consumer electronics company is out there besides Apple? I doubt a single cell phone, TV, DVD player, Internet wireless router, refrigerator, microwave oven, washer/dryer, home theater audio system, etc. are made in the US. I'm sure some boutique tube hi-fi audio stuff is still made in the States, but in the big picture, that kind of stuff can't even be considered a niche market.
These are low-tech, low value-added jobs with razor-thin profit margins. Do you know how many factories have closed in the Pearl River Delta since the "recession" began? The US needs to focus on maintaining its lead in innovative, high-tech industries where real value is created, and stay several steps ahead of the copycats.
I work in the musical instrument industry (more specifically, electric guitars) and have been in it for 20+ years. Where are the vast majority of electric guitars - one of the most American of all products - made in the world? China and Indonesia, of course. How about clothing? How about furniture? How about the drywalls in your home? Even a lot of the foods you see in mass merchandisers come from Asia. We are just a nation of consumers, remember? Retail makes up 70% of the American economy.
This is where you're wrong. While it may seem like everything is made in Asia, the US is in fact the world's largest manufacturer, with manufacturing output greater than that of China, India, and Brazil combined. You are correct that manufacturing is a
smaller part of the US economy vis a vis other countries.
How many here want to sit on an assembly line and insert parts on a phone or a TV? How many of you want a massive pollution-producing factory near your neighborhood? None of us do. We'd rather drive to a mall or a superstore and just buy and eat stuff. And we'll borrow money to do so. This is essentially what America has become. We're addicted to just consuming stuff, including buying houses and gas-guzzling cars beyond our means. And now we say, "Bring the jobs back but I'm not going to work there for minimum wage and don't build the factory in my neighborhood."
A NIMBY response would prevent a lot of the nastier, polluting industries from coming back to the States, but so what? These are awful jobs anyway. The US should focus on its strengths - innovation, high-tech, start-ups, etc. I don't think most people want to return to a Gilded Age economy of widespread poverty, corruption and horrendous pollution.
I've traveled to China since '93 and still go there on business every 2~3 months. There's no turning back now. The Pandora's Box was opened a long, long time ago when we never heard of Sony or Toyota, let alone Samsung and Foxconn. China will slowly start going through what Japan went through in the 70's and 80's and what Korea went through in the 90's and the past decade. But China is so huge that they still have long, long ways to go before things get expensive there.
I live in China and have for some time. Facile comparisons to Japan and Korea don't really count. They don't have the massive population, 2/3 still living in poverty, etc. Don't forget the Japanese stock market crashed in 1989 and they've been in a recession since. Inflation is already a problem and housing costs are heading for the stratosphere in cities like Shanghai. It's not quite HK yet, but it will be if things stay their course. The rich/poor gap is growing, China is facing a demographic time bomb with their rapidly aging population, and as their competitiveness wanes in cheap labor (lest we forget Vietnam and Indonesia eager to absorb these jobs) real questions arise as to what China's economy will transition to considering the A. lack of innovation and B. lackluster educational system.
It's kind of difficult to appreciate or comprehend the scope and scale of China (as well as of India). China's population is equal to that of two United States and all of Europe combined. And India will overtake China in population in another decade or so. Every one of three human beings on earth is either a Chinese or an Indian. And they are progressing fast - at an exponential rate compared to how things are moving in the West.
And the majority of these people are poor farmers, and will remain so. I've traveled quite a bit in India also, and spent a fair amount of time there. While they seem a lot more innovative than the Chinese, and have a lot of untapped talent, the fundamental issue is that a huge population at some point becomes more of a burden than an asset. Social stability, food, and employment for over a billion becomes a high-wire act with dire consequences in the case of a misstep. China's often horrific past is a testament to this fact. Chinese themselves are painfully aware of this and say "中国人太多!" Of course they're progressing fast compared to the West - the gap was so vast that under Mao virtually all of Chinese were living in extreme poverty... nowhere to go but up!
China's economy will become the largest in the world by 2030 (probably sooner) and be twice the size of that of the US by the middle of the century.
Yeah I read that article too - it's rubbish. Linear extrapolations of past trends projected into the future are always wrong. Without exception. I can find verbatim projections made about Japan in the mid-80s, how they would be the world's biggest economy within 20 years, etc. It's mindless hype. Rapidly industrializing countries always enjoy a huge economic surge, but once it tapers off then inflation and rising living costs set in and the economy slows. More realistically China is developing a huge Latin American style economy, with a wealthy elite of industrialists and politically-connected families, a modest middle class making a few thousand RMB a month living in crowded urban dwellings, and the great masses of peasants who, while not necessarily starving or fomenting revolt, have been mostly left behind.
It doesn't mean we are doomed or anything. We just have to accept the fact that we're not the major dominant power we used to be and never will be. We have to cooperate and compete at the same time - just like Apple does with Samsung, for instance. They both need each other. We need China and China needs us. In fact, all nations need every other nation that has something to sell - oil, natural gas, steel, copper, woods, fish, rice, clothing, and gadgets like the iPhone, etc. We sell high-tech services and software, weapons, Hollywood movies, financial services and consumer goods, etc. - generally speaking... We pushed for a global free market and that's what we've got. We just have to deal with it.
I agree we will need to cooperate far more than we have in the past. Yeah the US is facing a host of problems and we could probably do with a cold dose of realism - its a new, multipolar world and our sense of entitlement and standard of living won't be propped up by the rest of the world for much longer. But it's really not so black-and-white like you make it seem. If we do a sort of fundamental analysis, the US still hosts a lot of unique advantages. We're the world's biggest manufacturer and a leader in high-tech industries and innovation: microprocessors, airplanes and aerospace, telecommunications, chemicals, food processing, etc. We're by far the world's biggest agricultural exporter (hint: we can feed ourselves, China can't). We enjoy cultural diversity and a society and legal framework based on rule of law and basic rights that has proved quite resilient and adaptable. Geographically we're protected on both sides by vast oceans, and just in case we have
by far the world's most absurdly overpowered military. Because of immigration, our age demographic is closer to a developing country, giving us a much more favorable worker/retiree ratio than most countries.