Gartner: Apple To Double Its Market-share By 2011

[MacRumors]

In possibly one of the more ambitious outlooks for Mac market-share increases, Gartner is forecasting that Apple will double its market-share in the US and Western Europe by 2011. The reason for the dramatic increase is said to be two-fold: Apple continues to do well in its Macintosh unit and competitors aren't meeting Apple's competitive pressure.

Apple is challenging its competitors with software integration that provides ease of use and flexibility; continuous and more frequent innovation in hardware and software; and an ecosystem that focuses on interoperability across multiple devices (such as iPod and iMac cross-selling).

Gartner also predicts that by 2012, 50% of traveling workers will use devices other than notebooks. Gartner cites new "Internet-centric pocketable devices at the sub-$400 level" as a primary threat to the notebook in this arena. Notably, the iPhone fits this description.

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[clevin]

12% by 2011?...mmm, dont think so.

 

[MacSawdust]

Gartner Sux

If you consider the 8% stat as "real" people using Macs today, then 12% sounds reasonable 2011. Let's go for the slow and steady. Vista is no threat. We have time.

 

[bondsbw]

I would hope for more, although I know it's unlikely. Not that I'm the biggest Apple fan (although I have a Macbook and iPhone)... it's just that a competitive marketplace is very good for the consumer. Some large companies (who I shall not name, but have 90+% of the market) have played the lock-in game too long. It's time they put the money, that which they all-but-force from the pockets of their customers, to good use. And competitive pressures will force that to happen, and I applaud Apple for continually making a larger dent in the market.

 

[MrT8064]

i think this is a fair assumption, 3 years ago, i knew 2 people who used macs, now, i know 8, still not many but just in my circle of friends thats pretty extreme growth, and 6 of those 8 are in the intel era.

i can see iPod sales tailing off over the next few years, unless people are seeking replacements for damaged/small capacity iPods.

 

[GSMiller]

Who would have thought a few years back that Apple would ever have 12% market share.

 

[futureswitcher]

wouldn't that be nice?

I would absolutely love to see gain more market share...it's good for the competition!

i don't want to hate Micro$oft

i can see iPod sales tailing off over the next few years, unless people are seeking replacements for damaged/small capacity iPods.

i disagree. The market will keep refreshing itself. The iPod buyers of 2 years from now will be graduating from elementary school in June

 

[zirkle2007]

I can't imagine primarily using something on the go such as an iPhone, I love them, but for me there is no replacement for a laptop...I guess I'm just not a huge fan of doing any sort of work on such a small screen. I really don't see that part coming true though. Maybe 12" notebooks, but nothing smaller.

 

[tjcampbell]

Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU like Mac OS X; en) AppleWebKit/420.1 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/3.0 Mobile/4A93 Safari/419.3)

we will see a boom in mac users down the road when the young iPod generation starts buying their own computers they go with what's hip, what's familiar and that's apple.

 

[motulist]

I've said in before and I'll say again...

There's a tipping point.

Once Apple reaches a certain market share, then its adoption rate will suddenly sky rocket. One of the reasons why more people haven't seriously considered Macs in the past is simply because not enough other people were using them either. Personal users didn't use it because they were unfamiliar with it. When new users were set up in the computing world they got a PC because the person setting them up wanted them to easily fit in to the rest of the computing world. Managers in charge of buying decisions always bought MS Windows because that's what everyone else used, and no one every gets fired for buying the dominant technology even if it's not really the best technology for the job. Etc etc.

But once Apple's market share reaches a critical mass, all those factors will cease to be, and then over the span of maybe a year or two you'll see Apple's market share growth explode.

 

[zirkle2007]

I've said in before and I'll say again...

There's a tipping point.

Once Apple reaches a certain market share, then its adoption rate will suddenly sky rocket. One of the reasons why more people haven't seriously considered Macs in the past is simply because not enough other people were using them either. Personal users didn't use it because they were unfamiliar with it. When new users were set up in the computing world they got a PC because the person setting them up wanted them to easily fit in to the rest of the computing world. Managers in charge of buying decisions always bought MS Windows because that's what everyone else used, and no one every gets fired for buying the dominant technology even if it's not really the best technology for the job. Etc etc.

But once Apple's market share reaches a critical mass, all those factors will cease to be, and then over the span of maybe a year or two you'll see Apple's market share growth explode.

Good point. There's a lot of truth in your statement. I can see how that would factor in!

 

[amac4me]

The gain will be broad based and a significant percentage will be the direct result of SWITCHERS.

I've been saying for years (since 2005) that the Mac user base was to embark on a significant growth phase. I've held that position and it is well documented.

Who needs a PC?

 

[geerlingguy]

Who would have thought a few years back that Apple would ever have 12% market share.

Specifically, 12 years ago (1996), when Apple was holding on for dear life (comparatively), and when I almost decided to buy $100 worth of Apple stock at less than $13 (that was two splits and a couple hundred dollars worth of per share increase ago).

I'm glad for Apple, but sad I didn't take that risk. Oh well, better safe than sorry...

 

[czachorski]

12% by 2011?...mmm, dont think so.

Did you ....mmm, not think they were going to go from 1.6% to 8% in the last 5 years?

 

[zirkle2007]

Who needs a PC?

I do agree, but until OS X learns to handle video cards the way Windows does, my games will stay primarily on my PC or Boot Camp...sad thats the only reason I even have Windows anymore.

 

[juanm]

Mac adoption will be exponential, so even this report may fall short if they get a good MacGamer solution and convince Autodesk and the like to join OS X development.
In a mere two years, Apple growth forecast has changed a lot: Intel, iPhone, and the still underestimated TV can mean a new deal at an even higher scale, let alone if Apple surprises us with a new pipeline even only once a year!
People are getting tired of Windows, and most are opening their minds towards the Mac. Europe is still a virgin, concerning Macs. iPods have still to take off (I don't count the UK)... and if you add to that the iPod/iPhone halo.

Three years and 2x look like something feasible, given good conditions (economy, marketing, and "Vista 2.0" mostly)

 

[virduk]

Who needs a PC?

Sadly I do as long as there isn't a upgradable desktop Mac that's affordable.

 

[sdevore]

Gartner is full of malarky

a little over a year ago they thought apple should sell the hardware biz and license os to dell

http://daringfireball.net/2006/10/gartner_jackasses

 

[Ernest]

They will get one more Fo Sho.

 

[ChrisA]

The market will keep refreshing itself. The iPod buyers of 2 years from now will be graduating from elementary school in June

The above is the very definition of a "flat" no-growth market.

 

[rstone3]

Agree - and we're close

I've said in before and I'll say again...

There's a tipping point.

Once Apple reaches a certain market share, then its adoption rate will suddenly sky rocket. One of the reasons why more people haven't seriously considered Macs in the past is simply because not enough other people were using them either. Personal users didn't use it because they were unfamiliar with it. When new users were set up in the computing world they got a PC because the person setting them up wanted them to easily fit in to the rest of the computing world. Managers in charge of buying decisions always bought MS Windows because that's what everyone else used, and no one every gets fired for buying the dominant technology even if it's not really the best technology for the job. Etc etc.

But once Apple's market share reaches a critical mass, all those factors will cease to be, and then over the span of maybe a year or two you'll see Apple's market share growth explode.

This is very well stated - and I suspect that we are close to that critical mass. I also have a lot of people that I know who have recently adopted the Mac as another poster mentioned. I suspect one other crucial thing is the fact that in the Intel era one is not totally committed to Mac software in that for the price of Windows it can be loaded on a Mac.

As another illustration of how far behind Windows is a friend of mine just bragged about how his new version of Word under Vista can create a PDF file whenever he wants one (WOW!). I woke my iMac and showed him how OS X has been able to do that with any application for years.

 

[HornetOSX]

Sadly I do as long as there isn't a upgradable desktop Mac that's affordable.

what exactly can't you up grade in a mac pro ??

sure it will void your warranty ......... but then again .. if you put a new processor in your dell same thing.


mac pro - up to 16GB of ram, MANY articles of people tossing the newest processors in them and workin just fine. , Vid card?? well this may be limited but there ARE upgrades out there.

So I ask again .. what can't you upgrade??? Well I guess mobo.. but it's a mac.. you want a new mobo you buy a new machine.

 

[ChrisA]

Mac adoption will be exponential, so even this report may fall short...

No, by design Apple only goes after the top X percent of the market. In order to have very large market share Apple would need to offer a computer at each price point. Apple ignores the low margin price points.

Apple will remain forever a boutique reseller by choice. Their problem is that should they ever become truly mainstream they loose the ability to charge premium prices and they become Dell or Compaq.

 

[MacFly123]

Well I don't really feel like being politically correct, so let me just say, I HATE MICROSOFT Ahhh.... I feel so much better now lol.

I think the next several years will reveal how absolutely genious the iPod and iPhone really are. They are literally leading a revolution and raising a new computer generation in the world that sees that Apple really is BETTER, EASIER, MORE BEAUTIFUL, COOLER, MORE FUN and so on! We will see that the iPod and iPhone do not just have "HALOS" but are literally the SAVIORS that will convert masses to all things Apple

 

[zirkle2007]

what exactly can't you up grade in a mac pro ??

sure it will void your warranty ......... but then again .. if you put a new processor in your dell same thing.


mac pro - up to 16GB of ram, MANY articles of people tossing the newest processors in them and workin just fine. , Vid card?? well this may be limited but there ARE upgrades out there.

So I ask again .. what can't you upgrade??? Well I guess mobo.. but it's a mac.. you want a new mobo you buy a new machine.

I think you missed the 'affordable' part. Where you might be able to justify the price of the Mac Pro and say its affordable for what you get, most consumers looks at that and say "Whoa!"

Most people want a 400-500 dollar machine they can upgrade over the years and keep awhile. Apple doesn't have this. Sure the iMac is in a sense their solution, but its still not what the majority of consumers want.