You guys aren't counting on paradigm shifting.
Most of the posts in this thread are talking about Apple computers. Apple isn't only in the computer business anymore, and some Apple computer users even think that computer hardware is taking a back seat to media devices and service, where apple has an 80% marketshare in the segments it competes in, with the iPod, and the iPhone is also making serious headway.
The industry isn't going to stay the same. It isn't going to be about people sitting in front of a box on a desk, and "using the computer."
The computer isn't even going to be the computer anymore. The computer is going to be integrated into other things.
The big things on the horizon right now seem to be media center computer controllers, or portable combo devices, like the iPhone, ultra-portable laptops (which can take the place of portable DVD viewers and other single-use devices), and automotive integration technologies, like GPS navigation, hard-drive based, or iPod compatible ICE systems, and the like.
The computer isn't going to be a box on your desk. Or at least not ONLY the box on your desk. It is going to be in your TV/Home entertainment system. It is going to be in your cell phone, and in your car's dashboard, or at least in your car as a portable device. Integration is the name of the new game.
Once these sort of things start hitting critical mass, and if Apple can ride that wave the way it is with iPhone and iPod Touch, and the way it has made stand-alone computers fashionable and easy, with the iMac... it is going to reach critical mass, and grow along with it.
People were amazed at the iPod when it first came out, and considered themselves "cool" to even have one. Now a good number of people have several, and some families have many of them, collectively.
iPods get replaced. older white iPods get traded for smaller Nanos, or bigger capacity classics, and even some nanos, and newer style "classic" iPods are being traded for iPod touches, and iPhones with web connectivity and multitouch. It is a recycling marketshare, which also grows as new technology spreads down the price list.
I think the MacBook Air is just a stepping stone, too. A toe in the water before jumping in to a new class of portable computing that Apple could very well bring to the wider market, like the iPod. it is a stepping stone to smaller footprint computing, in more than just the physical sense. Computing with less optional equipment. Computing with less clutter, less weight, and less cabling. Co-opting other optical drives wirelessly is just the first overture. Time Capsule storage and backup via wireless is another.
I can imagine a day, within 1-3 years, when I have a Home Data Storage and media control server. It would be hardlined to the wired network, taking LAN, Cable/Satellite, land-base or VoIP Telephony, HD radio and TV air broadcasting, and whatever else, into a central home system. That system would of course be accessible by other devices in the home, like Cellular/Wifi/Land-line remote hybrid phones, video monitors, workstation terminal on the desk, whatever you choose.
I wouldn't need a big box on my desk at home. A 10" multi-touch slate-style tablet, as thin as, and lighter than the MBA, with wifi, 3G, and bluetooth, (and corresponding new technology in the future), a pair of USB and/or Firewire ports just in case, power, and a video output port, running the OS from an internal solid state memory array.
On a side note, I think SSDs are going to be a stepping stone to just replaceable memory for both operation (RAM) and storage (SSD-like). Why carry the weight of a hard drive casing with flash chips in it? why not just have the chips in a socket, like RAM? RAM has no encasement around it for more dead weight... and it is still just as replaceable and transferrable. Even a plastic envelope like an SD card has makes more sense than a metal drive case around non-moving, less volatile and sensitive parts.
For less portable use of such a 10" pad, a bigger screen, bluetooth keyboard and mouse, network storage and printing, and that 10" pad becomes dockable as a light-to moderate use workstation and internet terminal, or even presentation driving device. Only PRO grade stuff would need a full power workstation, or a full power mobile laptop workstation, which apple also does build, and likely will continue to do, for those who need that. But, why waste money putting Pro hardware into use as an internet terminal, and word processor, if that is all you really need?
Apple is one of the best companies at changing the paradigm, and integrating hardware into useful and intuitive uses. THAT is where things are going.
And devices are only going to get more disposable/recycleable, turning in technology to be dismantled and regenerated into newer technology. Some upgradeability is good, but you can't upgrade a Powerbook with intel processors. You can't upgrade existing laptops with multi-touch touchpads or screens. You HAVE to buy new for new technology, and mandating a very high level of upgradeability is counter productive to making equipment more affordable for now, and for replacement later.
I like being able to upgrade a bit. more memory, more drive space, replacement battery, etc. But that is different than non-user-serviceable core upgrades, which most people don't do, and most often require major hardware revisions. over-engineering hardware revisions to be extremely backward compatible leads to things like Microsoft's Vista still having aspects of DOS involved, and all the compatibility headaches that come with windows being compatible with new and old hardware from every vendor under the sun.
Make things cheap enough to be replaceable more often, more in the idiom of cell phones, and decades of backward compatability become less of an issue, and new technology takes off without long tethers to the distant past.
). Certainly due to SJ being stubborn not to give the mass what the mass wants (at that time: hard discs, color monitors, today: [fill in what you are missing]) but doing nice products for those who share his view on design, user interface etc., the explosion never happened - and will not happen in the next years, I guess.
