Gartner: Apple To Double Its Market-share By 2011

[brad.c]

Tried patches, logic and hypnotism? And she still is addicted to the clunky old tv?

For only $19.99, cash only please, Dr. Carlgo offers you this guaranteed cure!

Don't read this until you have sent the money.

Read it, but will still send the money anyway. Will PM shortly.

Actually, getting permission is easy. Getting her to pony up her share is another matter.

 

[dwman]

More market share would be great. It would attract more developers.

That's definitely the upside.

It's a bit of a double-edged sword though. More users mean more market share, but that invariably will invite hackers to start going after the OS X platform, ala Windows. Not knowing much about security, I have heard Unix is safer, but that doesn't mean much to a bunch of teenagers with a lot of time on their hands.

 

[IJ Reilly]

Most of the posts in this thread are talking about Apple computers. Apple isn't only in the computer business anymore, and some Apple computer users even think that computer hardware is taking a back seat to media devices and service, where apple has an 80% marketshare in the segments it competes in, with the iPod, and the iPhone is also making serious headway.

One of the best ways to find yourself ignored around here is to write lengthy or complicated posts. I just wanted to let you know, if nobody else does, that you made some good points. Apple takes the longer, more strategic view of the marketplace, and if we care to understand what they are doing, it pays for us to think in those terms as well.

 

[fblack]

That's definitely the upside.

It's a bit of a double-edged sword though. More users mean more market share, but that invariably will invite hackers to start going after the OS X platform, ala Windows. Not knowing much about security, I have heard Unix is safer, but that doesn't mean much to a bunch of teenagers with a lot of time on their hands.

Unfortunately most things have trade-offs. More market share may bring more developers, more software, more innovation as more people bring their talents to the mac side, even (there we hope) a few more hardware options, better interoperability between devices and platforms, but yes also more security risks. However, it may be preferable to the lean times, the dark times when apple users were few, software limited and our choice of OS on the verge of extinction. I personally would rather not go back there.

 

[surferfromuk]

Isn't it 8% now? A doubling would make 16% wouldn't it ?

That's only selling 10 million more macs a year - should be easy (not that I'm downplaying the significance of those numbers)

I think Gartner are seriously way under the mark here.

If Apple keep up their current rate of innovation, and given the huge boost in R&D in the last year I'm guessing innovation is about to get even faster and more incredible, then I would say 20% market share by 2011 is not entirely unrealistic.

Add to that the fact that Microsoft have announced that the successor to Vista will not be out till 2011 I'd say 15-20% is almost guaranteed.

I've seen an explosion in Apple tech in that last year - I go to offices now and 40% of people have 'an Apple product' : be that an Ipod Touch, iPhone, or a Mac, plus everybody has now heard of Apple.

Two years ago 60% of people didn't even know they made computers.

 

[Chimpy]

While I'd love to see Apple make big roads into the desktop market, I take any claims by Gartner with a boulder-sized grain of salt.

 

[avklevens]

Gartner ... Right

The year was I think 1998 or 99. Our friends at Gartner predicted the death of the Macintosh. The quote was something like "Niche market, hobbyist would continue to use the systems, but the computers were done"

I give little credence to Gartner reports concerning Apple or Macs. Some of us knew then what others are just learning now ...

 

[Syrus28]

Isn't it 8% now? A doubling would make 16% wouldn't it ?

That's only selling 10 million more macs a year - should be easy (not that I'm downplaying the significance of those numbers)

I think Gartner are seriously way under the mark here.

If Apple keep up their current rate of innovation, and given the huge boost in R&D in the last year I'm guessing innovation is about to get even faster and more incredible, then I would say 20% market share by 2011 is not entirely unrealistic.

Add to that the fact that Microsoft have announced that the successor to Vista will not be out till 2011 I'd say 15-20% is almost guaranteed.

I've seen an explosion in Apple tech in that last year - I go to offices now and 40% of people have 'an Apple product' : be that an Ipod Touch, iPhone, or a Mac, plus everybody has now heard of Apple.

Two years ago 60% of people didn't even know they made computers.

Not so fast. Remember, the computer industry is not stagnant. Every year, millions of users buy a new computer. However, can you really imagine Mac's market share doubling in 5 years? Lets be real here; Vista left Mac OS X and Linux in the dust last year.

Lets look at some numbers:

Microsoft has sold 100 million copies in 8 months compared to an estimated 50 million mac users total. Now I know "sold" means sold to retailer/OEM, and does not represent users so lets look at market share.

Vista is estimated at a ~10.47% market share while Mac is ~7.31%. Again, Vista, in the period of 8 months, has more market share than the entire Mac OS X Platform which has been out since 2001. XP in comparison, current has ~76.91% market share, compared to ~84.33% in January of 2007. This means XP has experienced a drop in about 8% market share while in that same time frame, Vista has experienced 10.47% market share. This would seem that the large majority of Windows users are going to Vista - Not Mac OS X.

So for Apple to double Mac OS X's market share in as little as 5 years would seem highly unrealistic. While Apple steals a minute amount of users from Windows, Windows will be introduced to nearly all of the new computer users out there. Chances are people who will experience computers in the next 5 years are not going to migrate straight to Mac OS X, which would be necessary for them have that kind of growth. Especially considering their computer hardware business would have to grow at the same rate - also highly unlikely.

Truthfully, I don't think we will ever experience Mac OS X taking over Windows - if both even still exist - in our life time.

So to conclude, Apple gaining 20% market share in Operating Systems by 2011 is highly unlikely in my opinion. I do, however, see them hitting something like 13% max by 2011.

Just think. Vista, and all the controversy and bad publicity it has called, has still hit a market share higher, in 8 months, than Apple has in 7 years. And if Microsoft has its way and releases another critically acclaimed OS like Win 95 or Xp, again, we can say good bye to 20% Mac OS X market share for another 5 years. So I'd say Apple has more worry than ever this time around. What if Windows 7 is actually good? The whole stance Apple has on Leopard is how it "just works" better than Vista. What Will it have in 2011? [Assuming Windows 7 is good] People new to computers just don't go out and buy Macs. Mac Users are probably 75% likely to have migrated to Mac OS X FROM Windows. And if Windows 7 is good enough to satisfy their needs, Microsoft has just cut Mac OS X's main supply line for new users/growth