Apple deserves thanks from all smartphone makers
The iPhone made a whole new smartphone market segment for visually oriented computer phones. Sure there were Blackberrys, Treos and Windows phones that served (and serve) the enterprise market well. But Apple "consumerized" the technology and set the standard for others to copy. They drove the current explosion in smartphone sales, and deserve the gratitude of all smartphone makers. They have my (albeit insignificant) compliments and gratitude.
I suspect that Apple will be, as others have suggested, the BMW to Android's Ford. But I also think that, at least in the US, Android will pass them pretty quickly in terms of unit sales volume. The numbers show that last year's Android phones, like the Motorola Droid and its less powerful cousins, have cut the iPhone's lead substantially. And those 2009 Android phones have some significant deficiencies vs. the iPhone in terms of speed and usability...along with fragmented OS versions. The Android generation that is currently being introduced are much better positioned with better screens, much faster processors, better cameras, and all having at least v2.1. The Evo specs, in many ways, surpass the rumors for the upcoming iPhone release. The HTC Incredible has been on backorder for at least 3 weeks online (Verizon, Amazon and more), via Verizon phone orders, and in Verizon stores (at least those within 500 miles of NYC). Neither of these new phones were part of the NPD report saying that Android had passed iPhone sales in the US. I suspect that Q2 will be monster for Android.
The Android phones won't have the visual grace of the iPhone. And soon enough we're going to hear of bigtime malware reports on Android. But competition among Android phones will, I believe, lead to substantially greater market share (but lower profitability) than iPhone. Much like in the computer market. And better, cheaper phones for all of us.
So thanks again, Apple.