Germany Now Favors Apple-Google Contact Tracing API Over Home-Grown Solution

[throAU]

How many influenza deaths there in the bad flu season a few years ago? 150K flu deaths in Europe across 4 months 2017 - 2018. Were you calling for European lockdowns back then?

For comparison purposes, you've had 1/3 of that in the USA in 1 month. And that was WITH exensive lockdowns basically shutting down large segments of the economy essentially halting international travel, etc.

The whole of Europe is a lot larger than the USA in terms of population buddy (over 2x the size, not including Russia).

So yeah, its quite a bit worse than the flu.

 

[Tor Eckman]

For comparison purposes, you've had 1/3 of that in the USA in 1 month. And that was WITH exensive lockdowns basically shutting down large segments of the economy essentially halting international travel, etc.

The whole of Europe is a lot larger than the USA in terms of population buddy (over 2x the size, not including Russia).

So yeah, its quite a bit worse than the flu.

Except it waste't really shut down. Wal Mart's and Lowes have looked like black Friday every day of the week, and where are all of the Wal Mart and Lowes employee deaths? This is the biggest fraud ever perpetrated on humanity.

1.35 car wreck deaths per year, are you calling for a 10 mph speed limit all the time to save those lives?

How Many People Die in Car Accidents? | Policy Advice

How Many People Die in Car Accidents? That is something that no one likes to think about. Yet, these statistics will inspire you to pay more attention.

policyadvice.net

According to the data coming out form USC, Stanford, New York, Dade County, Pennsylvania, etc., coronavirus infections are much much more prevalent than previously reported, and death rates are being artificially inflated. The actual death rate is likely on par with a bad flu season. We are realistically two years out from a readily available vaccine and therefore, unless one lives in a fallout shelter, we are all going to be exposed to it sooner or later. It is lunacy to destroy our economy by pushing out further exposure a few months (if we are even doing that and according to a recent study of states that have not had shelter in place orders, there is no difference in infection or death rates), merely delaying the inevitable. Does it make more sense to have further exposer now when flu, cold, and other sicknesses are low due to warmer temperatures, and pressure is lower on healthcare systems, than to push this out until fall and winter when pressure is much higher? There is a cost of doing business for merely being alive, and we accept that cost every day. Could we not eliminate car accident injuries and deaths by making the speed limit 10 mph all the time? Could we not prevent death from the flu (60k plus cases 2018-19) by sheltering in place each flu season? We are at a point of no return with the economy and that is going to kill far more people than covid.

 

[throAU]

According to the data coming out form USC, Stanford, New York, Dade County, Pennsylvania, etc., coronavirus infections are much much more prevalent than previously reported, and death rates are being artificially inflated.

Source?

There's also a lot of people dying without getting tested for COVID19 so who knows what the real death rate is. Irrespective of the rate, what matters are the numbers of dead vs. total population.

What we do know is that mass graves are being dug in and around New York, they're storing bodies in refrigerated trucks, etc.

Did they do that last flu season?

 

[Tor Eckman]

Source?

There's also a lot of people dying without getting tested for COVID19 so who knows what the real death rate is. Irrespective of the rate, what matters are the numbers of dead vs. total population.

What we do know is that mass graves are being dug in and around New York, they're storing bodies in refrigerated trucks, etc.

Did they do that last flu season?

Source? Seriously, you haven't seen any of the data coming out? Ok:

Antibody surveys suggesting vast undercount of coronavirus infections may be unreliable

Critics question accuracy of tests and media promotion before full results are published

www.sciencemag.org

Early antibody testing suggests COVID-19 infections in L.A. County greatly exceed documented cases

The early results of USC/Los Angeles County antibody testing show a surprising number of residents have been infected with COVID-19.

news.usc.edu

New York Finds Virus Marker in 13.9%, Suggesting Wide Spread

A New York study seeking to measure the spread of the new coronavirus found that 13.9% of 3,000 people tested across the state had signs of the virus, one of the biggest U.S. reviews to date.

www.bloomberg.com

Iceland lab's testing suggests 50% of coronavirus cases have no symptoms | CNN

There's a lot about Iceland that other countries could envy: Its spectacular natural surroundings, its place among the world's happiest countries, and, now, its large-scale testing for the novel coronavirus, which could influence how the world understands the outbreak.

www.cnn.com

Pa. removes more than 200 deaths from official coronavirus count as questions mount about reporting process, data accuracy

The past five days have been a roller coaster of confusion involving the state health department, marred by retracted statements, reporting lags, and angry coroners.

www.inquirer.com

Up to 650 000 people die of respiratory diseases linked to seasonal flu each year

Up to 650 000 deaths annually are associated with respiratory diseases from seasonal influenza, according to new estimates by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US-CDC), WHO and global health partners.

www.who.int

Miami-Dade has tens of thousands of missed coronavirus infections, UM survey finds

About 6 percent of Miami-Dade’s population — about 165,000 residents — have antibodies indicating a past infection by the novel coronavirus, dwarfing the state health departm…

www.sun-sentinel.com

There is no empirical evidence for these lockdowns

Comparing US states shows there is no relationship between lockdowns and lower Covid-19 deaths.

www.spiked-online.com

Opinion | Do Lockdowns Save Many Lives? In Most Places, the Data Say No

The speed with which officials shuttered the economy appears not to be a factor in Covid deaths.

www.wsj.com

Every death that can possible be attributed to covid is being listed as covid and half the people that have never even know it.

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/50-percent-of-people-with-covid19-not-aware-have-virus

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...ore-covid-19-patients-coronavirus/3000638001/

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/04/03/change-to-death-certificates-could-boost-covid19-counts

If you want to count "numbers of dead vs. total population," that percentage is about .01 percent -- about the same as the flu and the flu is mitigated with vaccine every year for the most vulnerable. Unmitigated, flu would be worse.

 

[ericwn]

How many influenza deaths there in the bad flu season a few years ago? 150K flu deaths in Europe across 4 months 2017 - 2018. Were you calling for European lockdowns back then?

Oh so with over 200000 deaths already and going on, you think we should just call it a day and get out there again.

What sort of bleach do you drink these days? Recommendations on the brand maybe?

 

[chucker23n1]

How many influenza deaths there in the bad flu season a few years ago? 150K flu deaths in Europe across 4 months 2017 - 2018. Were you calling for European lockdowns back then?

No, because there's a flu vaccine.

 

[DoctorTech]

I don't see what's "promising" about Sweden's death rate.

I also don't see what makes you believe that there is herd immunity against this virus, when it's actually unclear so far if people get immune at all. (There appear to be have been cases where they get infected yet again.)

Also… "problem gone"? Really? Not for at least another year. Problem reduced, at best.

The question of herd immunity is difficult to answer because our current tests seem very prone to both false positives and false negatives. Mammograms are only 87% accurate in identifying breast cancer.

False Positives, False Negatives in Breast Cancer

Despite advanced screening tools and procedures, sometimes a cancer is missed or misdiagnosed.

health.usnews.com

I've read estimates from different sources that COVID-19 tests have anywhere from a 10% to 30% false negative rate (I'm sure part of that variation depends on exactly which test is performed). However, it is harder to find estimates on false positive rate. Generally speaking, false negatives are considered a more serious problem because a person with a false negative will not get treatment whereas a person with a false positive will get treatment they don't need.

 

[alecgold]

It won't - but the idea is that you get tested or make sure you aren't infected - and that's a better/safer option that just ignoring those situations where you MIGHT have been in direct contact with an infected person.

No solution is 100% accurate, but it's better to err on the side of caution.

But the point is that there is just enough test capacity to test seriously sick patients, doctor and nurses sometimes and care workers when they get really sick.
Testing 5-10% of the population (which is what you are doing every week/2 weeks) is not on the horizon for another 6 months to 2 years.

So what happens is that every contact that might have been in range is ordered to quarantine. And then a high number of false positives are wrecking havoc with the trust of the public in the system.
Even worse are a few false negatives because they will spread the disease like wild fire if people trust on the app.

It’s not that there is no 100% solution, there isn’t even a 50% solution.

 

[alecgold]

If you want to count "numbers of dead vs. total population," that percentage is about .01 percent -- about the same as the flu and the flu is mitigated with vaccine every year for the most vulnerable. Unmitigated, flu would be worse.

That is a very misleading number.
First number of deaths by flu for infected people are estimated at 0.1%-0.15%. (source: CDC, 45mln infected, 61k died 2018).

So the number of deaths must be set off to the people that have been infected.

One of the problems in this pandemic is that there is no 100% testing with reliable technology, so we don’t know how many people have antibodies.
Swab testing is reliable but done very limited and specific to only people that are seriously sick, have had proven contact with a corona patient or have been working in hospitals/care homes etc.
Serological testing is done at blood banks where an atypical section of the society comes. So that isn’t a good source as well.
That leaves mathematical modeling and profiling, which is as good as the data it gets.

Best guesses are that between 3 and 20% of the population in the US has had Corona.
In New York City it is believed to be as high as 20%. With 12976 deaths and ±8.359.401 inhabitants that brings the deaths per infected to 0.77%. If the percentage of infected people is much higher or lower, or deaths in care homes, people that die at home, or on the streets have been misdiagnosed on a large scale (and there are signs that this has been the case, certainly in the early weeks of the pandemic) the number might chance significantly.


TL;DR we have no clue how deadly corona really is.

 

[Tor Eckman]

That is a very misleading number.
First number of deaths by flu for infected people are estimated at 0.1%-0.15%. (source: CDC, 45mln infected, 61k died 2018).

So the number of deaths must be set off to the people that have been infected.

One of the problems in this pandemic is that there is no 100% testing with reliable technology, so we don’t know how many people have antibodies.
Swab testing is reliable but done very limited and specific to only people that are seriously sick, have had proven contact with a corona patient or have been working in hospitals/care homes etc.
Serological testing is done at blood banks where an atypical section of the society comes. So that isn’t a good source as well.
That leaves mathematical modeling and profiling, which is as good as the data it gets.

Best guesses are that between 3 and 20% of the population in the US has had Corona.
In New York City it is believed to be as high as 20%. With 12976 deaths and ±8.359.401 inhabitants that brings the deaths per infected to 0.77%. If the percentage of infected people is much higher or lower, or deaths in care homes, people that die at home, or on the streets have been misdiagnosed on a large scale (and there are signs that this has been the case, certainly in the early weeks of the pandemic) the number might chance significantly.


TL;DR we have no clue how deadly corona really is.

Well we know it's not about to go away, we are not about to get a vaccine, and its highly contagious. We also know we cannot hide in our homes forever and that all of us will likely be exposed eventually.

Expert report predicts up to two more years of pandemic misery | CNN

Covid-19 is not going away, a new report on the coronavirus pandemic says. The report from CIDRAP predicts 18 months to two more years of Covid-19 cases and deaths.

www.cnn.com

Opinion | How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take? (Published 2020)

Experts say at least 18 months. Here’s how to shorten the timeline.

www.nytimes.com

Antibody tests support what’s been obvious: Covid-19 is much more lethal than the flu

New data suggest coronavirus infections greatly outnumber confirmed cases — potentially by a factor of 10 or more.

www.washingtonpost.com

 

[throAU]

Well we know it's not about to go away,

Well not in the USA, no.

Here in Australia we have two states now tentatively Coronavirus free (we have border controls/quarantine between states) and others with active case numbers in the low teens. Because we did what had to be done, when we needed to do it.

Given we have roughly 10% of the USA population, if we were doing "as well" as the USA, we'd have had 100,000 cases, in reality we had about 6500.

We're down to about 950 active cases across the country now with daily growth numbers averaging below 5 per state.