Again, 2% will not hold up as the denominator rises. This isn’t killing young people or healthy people at anywhere near that rate.
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Google Cancels May I/O Developer Conference Due to Coronavirus
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Interesting. Microsoft and Google events we were going to was just cancelled. each had booked over 1,000 people into 2 or 3 hotels. I assumed they would get their money back. Maybe not?
But perhaps since each the books 10,000s of rooms a year with these places they have a large hammer.
Even 2% of people over 60 is a big number and would have a large effect on businesses since these people have a lot of money to spend.
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It's pretty obvious one would think. Many with minor symptoms would never get tested for this or didn't even have that option. Heck, they probably wouldn't even see a doctor about it as it's simply like having a bad cold. And so the denominator will always be much lower than it should be.
It's basically the flu. Much ado about nothing.
Doctors are not statisticians. Medical error fatalities due to bad statistical judgements of risks are way too common.
Another rookie statistical error (often fatal). The variance of the auto fatality rate is quite known. A +2 sigma year doesn't double that auto accident rate from the previous year. We have enough hospitals to handle the current auto accident rates. But a 2+ sigma event in a new pandemic can easily increase the effect rate by orders of magnitude.
Same mistake. You have just reported the known variation in seasonal flu fatality rate. But pandemics have a much wider variance. Or maybe a completely unknown variance. Completely different things.
And that's the most intelligent statement of all.
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The overriding panic is probably nonsense. I’m not saying to be reckless, but it’s been covered in a very panicky way.
Australia has had 1 confirmed death from a population for 25 million, believe it or not, people are clearing out the shelves of tolet paper... the public have lot their mind over this. https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...w/news-story/53de5794a49274c44558651d6712df71
The issue isn’t how many people haven’t caught it yet., The issue is what happens if it is not contained.
All these ‘Covid19 has only killed x people‘ type of responses show a profound misunderstanding of growth rates. Spanish Flu only killed one person on the entire planet - at the point when the first ever casualty of the virus died - but from there the number of deaths grew.
I’m not an epidemiologist so right now the best way that I can inform myself is by listening to the opinions of experts in the field and at least the ones that I am seeing interviewed tend to be cautious with their words- emphasising that worst case scenarios are just that, worst case, and might never happen (indeed some experts I have heard say “should never happen” provided that effective early interventions are taken) but I do detect an underlying current of genuine concern from pretty much all of the experts that I’ve seen interviewed so I will go with their expertise rather than “it’s no big deal, car crashes kill more people” sorts of comments.
I’m not an epidemiologist so right now the best way that I can inform myself is by listening to the opinions of experts in the field and at least the ones that I am seeing interviewed tend to be cautious with their words- emphasising that worst case scenarios are just that, worst case, and might never happen (indeed some experts I have heard say “should never happen” provided that effective early interventions are taken) but I do detect an underlying current of genuine concern from pretty much all of the experts that I’ve seen interviewed so I will go with their expertise rather than “it’s no big deal, car crashes kill more people” sorts of comments.
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It might as well end up like this. Here in Switzerland, events with more than 1000 people are currently forbidden, events with more than 150 people need approval by the local government. These measures are in place until March 15th currently, but I could image they will stay in place much much longer.
I don't think it is going to happen. People all around the world watch those events on TV, just play the games in empty stadiums. Athletes and trainers are only a few thousands, they can be monitored and they need to stay in the olympic village for the entire time to avoid contacts with sick people outside.
I don’t think any of the professional athletes would be willing to perform in an empty stadium, it’s better to cancel it all together no matter how big the occasion or the event.
Attending an Olympics for some athletes is once in a life time achievement. If they postpone it for a few weeks I think they'll be happy, if they cancel the event I bet most of the athletes would rather have empty stadiums than missing the opportunity. They train for months, if not years, for the event.
Football is different, players are professional and work for a team during the year so even if Euro 2020 is postponed to next year it wouldn't make a huge difference. Here in Italy they are going to play in empty stadiums for a few weeks, they say is different but they don't refuse to play.
What do you mean by that? No cases where? In Disney parks themselves? Because there are several cases in the same Orange county that Disneyland is in. And I know there are now cases in Florida too. And while not enough cases to close a theme park yet (thankfully since my husband works in one), if things were to get worse that could happen. Disney parks in China have been closed for 3 or 4 weeks. In Japan, one week.
The metric has primarily changed twice, once because the number and speed of nucleic acid tests couldn’t keep up in Hubei so they switched to clinical diagnosis with CT scans for lung infections without checking for the existence of the virus (this counted all patients with signs of pneumonia), the second time the criteria was switched back to nucleic acid tests as number of cases became more manageable. Asymptomatic patients are not very common and most eventually develop symptoms and added to the main listings. Regardless, all of the metrics has been showing signs of significant decrease from the height of infections in early February.
Japan and China are completely different because
A) the virus originated in China,
B) Has far more cases, and
C) is basically the government's decision to close parks in those markets.
I just simply don't think 10 or 20 cases in a state or county means you close Disney or anything. You have to ask more questions. Like I said, tons of stuff remains open despite the states having a few cases.
So much for all comments downplaying the virus. Now we’re in a deep trouble.
8 April 2020 worldwide stats
source
8 April 2020 worldwide stats
| Confirmed 1,426,096 | Recovered 300,054 | Deaths 81,259 |
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