It is not a horse race. I repeat, it is not a horse race.
Nearly everyone, disappointingly, frames the competition between Apple and Google as something that is by necessity the same as the '80s, in which Windows "won" and all other platforms "lost." Maybe Apple and Google are thinking of it exactly that way, maybe they're just talking about it that way, but even if that's true, it's not the reality.
This is not the '80s. It would be entirely possible for both sides to "lose," depending on their definition of loss. Or, phrased differently, for both sides could win.
Apple could very easily end up with a solid 25% market share, Google with 40%, and another company or companies with 35%. If that 25% of the market is made up of higher end devices purchased by people who like a curated, vertically integrated system, then Apple might consider that a resounding success. 25% of the future's mobile computing market is massive, and could sustain a large company.
Google, likewise, could have 40% or more and consider that a loss, because it's not 100%, if they're playing for all the marbles. Or they could consider that a resounding success.
I'm not saying there's no chance the world will go 100% in one direction and one company will "win", but I am saying that I find that unlikely. The world has steadily crept toward a platform agnostic core with a lot of platform-specific add-ons depending on user preference. It is, frankly, quite likely that no company will ever be able to leverage themselves into the monopoly position MS managed to, and if that artificial constraint on progress and diversity doesn't happen there's no reason for a device or OS monoculture to exist.
Again, if Apple had 20% market share and a strictly curated, tightly integrated system with less features and freedom than Android, I might well still buy such a device.
It's almost exactly the same as the video game space--I can spend a pile of money on a fancy Windows gaming rig for the flashiest and newest, with a lean toward online and FPS gaming, or I can buy a PS3 for a tightly integrated system with more software constraints but that is in exchange easier to keep running, cheaper, and more stable. Or I can buy a Wii for an entirely different sort of gaming and an even more heavily curated and tightly-integrated experience. Or I can buy all three.
And that's before you even toss much of the web into the mix.
There have been between 3-4 gaming "cultures," and an even larger number of "platforms" when you count handhelds, for the past 30 years. While Sega "lost" neither MS, Sony, nor Nintendo has "won" during that time, and it's unlikely a single player will.
Or try pre-iPhone cell phones. Leaving aside carrier-forced stupidity and crappy web experience and only looking at them as phones, you have many devices from many companies, and no "winner" in the war. 95% of all phones are not and haven't really ever been made by Motorola, Sony-Ericson, or any other single company. All make somewhat compatible products with different features for different preferences, and nobody expects a single device maker to "win". Or cars--it's not like Ford "won", nor does anyone expect there to eventually only be one car company.
Sure, Google wants to have android on 100% of devices, whoever makes them, but I don't think that's going to happen. I could be wrong, but there's hardly a guarantee.
It's called competition, it's good to have it back, and I'm looking forward to it.