Yes you are.
Kindly provide some DATA to support all (heck, any!) of your "I think," or "I believe," etc., statements. For instance, your claim that "techies" make up the bulk of Android purchasers--kindly provide a citation to evidence of that. What you've written is your opinion, which doesn't even rise to the level of speculation.
If you'd done even a cursory search, you'd see that market, analyst, and public opinion is that MS-Nokia is a desperate play to become relevant that is unlikely to succeed, since it is based on two companies currently losing in the marketplace. Rather like Sears and K-Mart merging--as many said, "Great--two losers combining!"
See, this is why i said writing it up would be a waste of time. Thanks for proving me right. What data are you after? What evidence must i provide to get you to understand simple concepts related to adoption of technology? What data do i need to provide for the fact that my (and probably your) mom and dad are not tech-savvy early-adopters (but more likely late adopters, or even laggards)?
Of course not everyone using a smart-phone is a techie, far from it (for the record i dont remember stating that either, what i might have said is that Androids core following - which is not the same as anyone purchasing an Android product - at large consist of techies. Why? Simple, they are the ones that truly feel for their offering visavi iOS, webOS, xOS, whateverOS).
Thing is, smart-phones as an industry is very young, and adoption up to this point is nothing compared to what it will be in the years to come (read any analyst projection out there, what market segments do
you think will make up for the hundreds of millions of devices to be sold really?).
Second, of course it is my opinion, or belief. Like earlier stated magic crystal balls do not exist. When Gartner makes their forecast they are presenting us with their opinion. When i make my forecast i am presenting you with mine. You see, thats how these things work. We take what is currently known, we try to weed out current trends (both in consumer markets and in technology), we try to understand why these trends are the way they are, what could change or disrupt them, i.e. we try to understand what the future will hold.
Third, ive done more than a "cursory search". Like stated earlier on these boards i study mobile platforms for a living. I, unlike you, perform actual research on these issues. I, unlike you, write scientific articles on matters related to these things. For someone calling for arguments, it would be nice to see anything but random bs. How bout some real arguments to why i am wrong? Arguments beyond "MSFT sucks. Nokia sucks. They will fail. (All hail Steve Jobs!)".
Fourth, if you havent gotten the concept of "convergence of platforms" this far, read up. These matters go well beyond smart-phones. In the totality of things MSFT is hardly a losing company. Yes, Nokia has issues. Serious issues. But those issues have nothing to do with the (soon to be) Windows multi-device platform.
Fifth, even looking at the level of the mobile market MSFT is not really losing. the Wp platform is gaining ground, albeit very slow. Why? Well, its hardly just in the hands of MSFT is it? However, if one thing is certain it is that OEM:s will follow the money. With Mango around the corner, and Nokia gearing up to push volumes (which they will succeed in doing, just like they managed to sell 30 million devices with Symbian last year despite its short comings), the Wp platform will gain more attention, not only from consumers but also from OEMs and developers (i could reiterate basic economic arguments as to why new entrants are more attractive to develop for even if the user base is smaller; similarly, i could point to the turn to HTML5 as a factor that will leverage the playing field - in fact, i could point to a handful of factors that make it likely that Apps will largely become an industry asset in the years to come, but i wont).
Thing is, even if it fails, and MSFT doesn't gain support now - they will later. W8 is around the corner too. Do you think all OEM:s are going to give up on Windows? Really? If not, and MSFT ends up getting full backing for their new platform - which runs on tablets - do you not think they will snag a significant market there? If not, why? (No historical arguments, as W8 is developed with the new form factor - something we really havent seen before from MSFT). Do you think businesses will just give up on their investments in MSFT? Do you think they will NOT take advantage of the fact that they can roll in W8-pads without significant hassle? That all software will run? That they can enjoy the enterprise functionality MSFT supports? (An area where competition surely lack in their respective offerings).
And say they do manage to snag a significant market share here. How far off do you think it is before people also pick up on their mobile offering of the same platform (Wp will integrate, its just a matter of time)? If MSFT offering was crap, i could see your point - at least in the mobile segment - but it is not. Sure, its behind in some respects, i already acknowledged that. But will they be in 1 year? In 2 years? If you really think so, explain why, and how. Also explain why Average Joe (or Jane) will care (or know) enough to not buy their products. After all, that is what will matter in the end.
Now, once again, i find myself throwing pearls at pigs. Ill leave it at that for now.
p.s.
According to economic and innovation research, being the biggest loser may actually be a "good" thing in markets that were recently disrupted. Reason is that drastic situations call for drastic solutions. As such, one may be able to free oneself from the chains that made one sink in first place (put
very simply: out with the old, in with the new). If i remember it correctly Teece (who is bound to get a Nobel prize btw), refers to this as (Schumpterian) creative destruction within the firm. I can pull up some articles for you to read if youd like. After all, i got them at home an arms length away.
Disclaimer:
I really dont give a rats ass "who wins" in the end. Well, actually, i'd like the consumers to win but im not that naive (and, to be frank, consumers are stupid anyway so who cares).
