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1) Yet another post that says.... yeah "....". Nothing. Kind of cute at first, by now its old though.

2) As for my writing, i am not used to having to spell everything out. My general audience is intelligent enough to fill in the blanks.

3) I have no intentions of outing myself on these boards, or any other boards for that matter. I could provide you with some interesting work on the matter though (its not like im on top of the field anyway)... or you can just use google scholar: Yoo, Lyytinen, Cusamano and Gawer has written some nice stuff on the topic, to name a few).

(call me a fraud all you want. my university paycheck says differently).

4) In the last post i asked you what data you were interested in. You failed to respond. Trolls usually do.

Ciao!

ROFLMAO!

Working in the cafeteria with delusions of grandeur, are we? If you were for real, you'd have no problem sharing some of your work. Since you won't we will simply assume you're a fraud.

You might also check your writing--it's rife with grammatical, spelling, and usage errors that underline that you don't write for a living. Some of us do have to research and write coherently for a living--thank you for admitting you're not one of us.

I used empirical data that showed MS and Nokia were losing large amounts of market (and, thus, wallet) share. You then claimed those periods didn't matter and completely ignored the accelerating downward trend, claiming that sometimes it's good to be the loser. I've asked, and you refused to provide, data that supports ANY of your assertions beyond "trust me, I study this." That's not how it works.

Hope you graduate from dishwasher to line cook soon . . . but I won't hold my breath, given your inability to write a coherent sentence, let alone paragraph. Hence, the "Ignore" list.

:rolleyes:
 
ROFLMAO!

Working in the cafeteria with delusions of grandeur, are we?

No, but if you swing by ICIS in Shanghai in December, or HICCS* in january (Hawaii) ill buy you a coffee in one. Deal? (* Have to wait another few weeks for confirmation on that though).

If you were for real, you'd have no problem sharing some of your work.

My work is already shared, some of it is even open access. I have no problem sharing it, it kind of goes hand in hand with publishing you know.

Since you won't we will simply assume you're a fraud.

We? Who is having delusions of grandeur now? You mean "I", unless you want to pull a "me, myself and i" stunt on me (in which case id advise you to seek professional help from a different type of doctor).
You might also check your writing--it's rife with grammatical, spelling, and usage errors that underline that you don't write for a living.

English is not my native language. Second, i really dont make an effort writing properly on internet boards. I write as i think, and rarely look back. Sometimes it comes out a bit awkward, but im quite sure its comprehendible in the end. For those that actually bother to read that is.

Some of us do have to research and write coherently for a living--thank you for admitting you're not one of us.

Good for you. Somehow i doubt that you are a researcher in my field though. But, once again, good for you.

I used empirical data that showed MS and Nokia were losing large amounts of market (and, thus, wallet) share.

1) WM and WP are two different platforms. Second, the decline in total share (altough i fail to see the relevance) was quite expected. They did not only shift platforms, in doing so they changed customer segment and (which is unusual for MSFT) scrapped backwards compatibility.

2) Nokias figures has been covered extensively enough as is. Read up on earlier posts.

Ergo: Even though you are right in that Nokia had a major drop in Q2 (and Q3), and that total MSFT share is smaller post WP than pre WP, these facts have quite straight-forward explanations. Second, they are poor indications of what WP will be, which is what matters here. After all, by your logic Apple should've been bankrupt years ago. Are they?
You then claimed those periods didn't matter and completely ignored the accelerating downward trend, claiming that sometimes it's good to be the loser. I've asked, and you refused to provide, data that supports ANY of your assertions beyond "trust me, I study this." That's not how it works.

See above. I provided clear-cut, easy-to-understand, explanations for the rapid decline. I also provided you with data (awesome, huh!) indicating that Nokia was in fact doing quite fine volume wise, keeping up with Apple (in absolute numbers)

As for the post-script parenthesis "good to be the biggest loser" (or, big enough - just being a loser is not enough) i already stated that i would happily provide you with articles covering this. Further, I already pointed you towards Teece, and the Schumpterian creative destruction concept.

So far, you dont seem very interested in learning though.

Hope you graduate from dishwasher to line cook soon . . . but I won't hold my breath, given your inability to write a coherent sentence, let alone paragraph. Hence, the "Ignore" list.

Awww. How sad. Not (high five!)




Keep rolling. Coffee offer still stands. My treat!

p.s.

The interwebs are never as funny as when a guy asking for "real arguments" resorts to ad hominems when he, in turn, is asked to provide more than useless barks.
 
From what I've read, it looks as though the deal will go through,

For the STB business, I agree. I think there will be all kinds of regulatory approvals necessary for this to work out. Not to mention, the cable providers' input on Google muscling its way into living rooms. I don't think Comcast is 'happy' about this new development. This kind of litigation could possibly take years to overcome.

The problem is that until the STB issues are worked out, the deal won't/can't go through, and they are liable to be fairly large, Motorola has over 40% of the US market for Cable boxes, Google is on record as wanting to destroy the cable market with Google TV during one of their fairly frequent crazy rants. I wouldn't be surprised if the STBs design and code end up having to be given to Comcast/Knowlogy/etc for a nominal fee to get this done. As Comcast etc, arent likely to want someone who has professed to want to put them out of business to be the key manufacturer of those Digital Cable boxes and DVRs that keep them in business.
 
No, they have nothing coming in if this doesnt happen. Google only needs to pay if they back out. Not being allowed to buy != backing out.

No, Google may decide to pull out of the deal if regulation approval has too many rules, or if its too costly for it to occur, thus Google with have to pay the cancellation fee. At this point, 1 of 3 things happens, MMI gets bought by Google, Google pays cancellation fee or MMI pays cancellation fee and MMI has no interest in the deal not going through so they arent going to cancel the deal. There is no scenario where neither team pays a cancellation fee unless the deal goes through. This is very similar to the AT&T buying Tmobile currently being worked on which it looks quite possible that it may not occur now and Tmobile is going to pick up $3B in cash for the cancellation fee.
 
The problem is that until the STB issues are worked out, the deal won't/can't go through, and they are liable to be fairly large, Motorola has over 40% of the US market for Cable boxes, Google is on record as wanting to destroy the cable market with Google TV during one of their fairly frequent crazy rants. I wouldn't be surprised if the STBs design and code end up having to be given to Comcast/Knowlogy/etc for a nominal fee to get this done. As Comcast etc, arent likely to want someone who has professed to want to put them out of business to be the key manufacturer of those Digital Cable boxes and DVRs that keep them in business.

Not sure if Google ever went on record to say they want to 'destroy the cable market.' As with other companies, they have to work out a deal with content providers. From this Reuters report, the main beef cable operators have is when Google "used its muscle to get regulators to back 'net neutrality' rules that would prevent Internet service providers from rationing access to their networks," and thank God Google did this, because "the cable and ISPs wanted to be able to manage congestion by blocking certain traffic or charging for passing through their pipes, for example."

Additionally, Comcast would merely go to Motorola's existing competitor in the STB business, Cisco, if they want to do it their own way.

Hopefully Google and Comcast will find middle ground on this, as there could be potential for growth for both companies.

On a side note, I found this article from the Harvard Business Review a very fascinating, compelling read. He essentially says that a series of mistakes lead to the acquisition of Motorola Mobility
 
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Hopefully Google and Comcast will find middle ground on this, as there could be potential for growth for both companies.

I think you're right.

STBs have always been a very customer (i.e. cable company) driven product.

If Google does plan to get into STBs, I'd bet that Comcast will figure out a way to make some app money / shared search revenues from such a deal.

On a side note, I found this article from the Harvard Business Review a very fascinating, compelling read. He essentially says that a series of mistakes lead to the acquisition of Motorola Mobility

That article relies on some very basic misconceptions about Android, starting with the bogus idea that Google requires their services to be installed.
 
That article relies on some very basic misconceptions about Android, starting with the bogus idea that Google requires their services to be installed.

That's not true. He specifically mentioned vendors choosing not to install Google services.
 
IThat article relies on some very basic misconceptions about Android, starting with the bogus idea that Google requires their services to be installed.

You manage to consistently miss the point.

Google needs their services to be installed (and used) in order to make money. No mobile searches via Google = No revenue for the boys out in Mountain View.

And thats (one of many) problems with Android: They simply haven't been able to monetize its adoption. According to Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, each Android user brings in about $6 per year in search revenue for Google.

Doubt that $6 figure? How much do you think the couple of dozen click-thrus and few hundred display-ad views you generate on your Android phone are worth?

Side note: The silly thing is, of course, that each iOS user probably brings in as much - or more - revenue for Google. See the $100 million a year Google pays to Apple....

How much is each iOS user worth to Apple: The best estimate I've read suggests about $150 per year.

Google just spent two years worth of profits for the entire company "doubling down" on Android.
 
correct me if i'm wrong, but i think its mandatory that the core google products are installed on said smartphone if they want to be a legitimate licensee of Android.

If you're a legitimate licensee of Android, and removing google's core apps (android marketplace, gmail for instance) the handset maker/carrier would be breaking the ToS.
 
Interesting read.

Google's Strategic Mistakes Drove Motorola Buy

Google's $12.5 billion purchase of Motorola Mobility has set the technology and investing worlds aflutter, with much of the commentary positioning it as a play by Google for Motorola's strong IP portfolio. But a single point of focus is incorrect and misses a bigger point: The MMI purchase is the result of Google's miscalculations about the way value is captured in mobile computing. These strategic missteps placed Google in a position of weakness and forced it into a costly and desperate move.

To understand why that's the situation Google is in, first we should look at the company's mobile Android software in the context of Google's product portfolio. There's a great consistency with Google's products: they are services "in the cloud." All except for one: Android. It's a peculiar Google product for two reasons.

1) Android is not an end-user application or service. It's system software; the customer for Android is not the end-user but a system builder or integrator. Typically a phone or device vendor needs to license Android and then build a product which must then be accepted by another intermediary — usually a mobile operator — before sale to the end-user. System software is "plumbing" which, like Windows, enables applications that "run on top" of it. It's a platform.

2) Android is one of many enablers for other Google services. Google offers the same services on other system software. For example, Gmail and Google Search and Google Maps work very well on iPhones (or Windows). So Google's own platform is not the only venue through which Google's money makers can reach the market. Although Google services can run on any platform, mobile platforms are not as open as traditional computer platforms. This means that a platform owner (e.g. Apple or Microsoft) can "turn off" Google services on a whim. By distributing its own platform, Google can thus ensure that its services will have unhindered access to users. In other words, they gain distribution. By being a plumber, Google can ensure that its services will flow freely.

It's an innovative, if not convoluted, business model: Building and giving away the plumbing so that homes are granted unhindered access to free Google utility services (whose meter readings are sold to the highest bidder). But it comes with more complications.

When it took its approach to mobile software, Google made a big bet that smartphones and tablets were sufficiently mature and thus could be built in a way that didn't require Google owning all points of the value chain. For the last year it seemed that Google bet right. Android was very quickly adopted by licensees to the point that it achieved nearly 50% share in smartphone shipments last quarter.

However, lately, cracks began to appear in the strategy. Issues with intellectual property in Android caused some licensees to have to pay royalties to patent holders, increasing the cost. Fragmentation took hold where some versions of the software were used by some licensees on some products without the option or incentive to upgrade. Finally, some vendors modified the software resulting in missing features or inconsistent user experiences — even to the extent that Google's own services were omitted.

All of these problems are a direct result of the approach Google chose with its big bet on Android. As a consequence, it has become increasingly difficult to ensure that Google's revenue-generating services are properly "flowing" to the end users. The smartphone as we know it today is not good enough or mature enough to support Google's initial strategic approach with Android. The big bet may have been lost.

Instead, with Motorola, Google got a hold of the vehicle through which it can create and sell integrated products. The company is thus no longer just a plumber but also a house builder and real estate developer. It can now build showcases that demonstrate the value of its services. The challenge then is how it will sell plumbing to contractors while it also competes with them by building houses. Android's big bet has yet to pay off and Google just doubled down.
 
correct me if i'm wrong, but i think its mandatory that the core google products are installed on said smartphone if they want to be a legitimate licensee of Android.

If you're a legitimate licensee of Android, and removing google's core apps (android marketplace, gmail for instance) the handset maker/carrier would be breaking the ToS.

Nope. You are only required to conform to the Compatibility Definition Document as interpreted by Google to use the name Android. Google services are not required.
 
You manage to consistently miss the point.

Oh, I know his point. I just think he started from a poor basis :)

The way he wrote it, it sounded breathtakingly dramatic and unexpected:

"Finally, some vendors modified the software resulting in missing features or inconsistent user experiences — even to the extent that Google's own services were omitted." - Harvard article

In real life, it's no surprise to Google or anyone that a lot of third world device makers didn't sign up to license Google services. Quite a few of those still include a Google search widget, though.

What counts is that all the major handset and tablet makers are members of the OHA (Open Handset Alliance) and most do license Google services.

And thats (one of many) problems with Android: They simply haven't been able to monetize its adoption. According to Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, each Android user brings in about $6 per year in search revenue for Google.

And rising to $10 per year by 2012.

Yep, that's believable, and falls in line with other estimates I've seen that puts current Android revenue at close to a billion dollars in 2011. Not bad considering the Android team is probably still fairly small and they don't manufacture anything.

Side note: The silly thing is, of course, that each iOS user probably brings in as much - or more - revenue for Google. See the $100 million a year Google pays to Apple....

Nothing silly about that. Sounds like a good deal for everyone involved, especially for Google to be making money from Apple iOS sales.

It's like the way that Microsoft and Nokia make money from iOS and Android sales. The hardware manufacturers do the work and Google, MS and Nokia make money no matter whose phones sell. Nice position to be in, eh?

Nope. You are only required to conform to the Compatibility Definition Document as interpreted by Google to use the name Android. Google services are not required.

Yep. A little more info here.
 
correct me if i'm wrong, but i think its mandatory that the core google products are installed on said smartphone if they want to be a legitimate licensee of Android.

If you're a legitimate licensee of Android, and removing google's core apps (android marketplace, gmail for instance) the handset maker/carrier would be breaking the ToS.

It can't be branded as an Android unless it meets those specific licensing requirements.

Amazon can get around this by forking the Android OS, and installing their own suite of apps that mimic Google's, but either developed in house or licensed from third parties. Only it can't be called Android.

There are good odds that Amazon does this.
 
And rising to $10 per year by 2012.

Yep, that's believable, and falls in line with other estimates I've seen that puts current Android revenue at close to a billion dollars in 2011. Not bad considering the Android team is probably still fairly small and they don't manufacture anything.

At that rate, it's going to be a long time before they can break even on this purchase. (Unless they can find another way to make significant profits for MMI, of course.) :D
 
Nothing silly about that. Sounds like a good deal for everyone involved, especially for Google to be making money from Apple iOS sales.

Again, I think you need to think carefully about the "Android Revenue" figure.

As the iOS experience suggests, Google's mobile revenue is largely platform agnostic. Google gets paid for display ads regardless of whether someone searches using an iPhone, a Blackberry, or a Samsung (running Android). As long as Google is the search provider.

To that extent, I think you would have to admit that "revenue generated by Android users" isn't necessarily the same thing as "pure Android revenue" - for the simple reason that they'd still get a lot of it if Android had never existed.

Now, you certainly can argue that Android's existence accelerated a) the rate at which smartphones were adopted and b) the amount of mobile search that got done. But it certainly isn't "one to one." Plus you'd also have to consider the fact that some "mobile search" is simply a replacement for "desktop search": You look for a restaurant on your phone in the car, rather than on your laptop before you leave the house. Google needs to be careful it isn't simply trading dollars.

In my opinion, Google's business plan for Android was fatally flawed from the start. As a profitable multi-billion advertising company, it could afford to toss a few hundred million into developing and giving away Android, hoping that they'd build enough marketshare to control the mobile Operating system business the way Microsoft did with PCs.

But there were some problems:

1) The more marketshare Google got - the more it drew patent lawsuits to the carriers and manufacturers using it. Google's "open source" gambit was a cute way of absolving themselves of any responsibility for patent infringement.

2) The "open source" idea worked - up to a point. But it also meant that there were dozens of different versions, working on different phones. PLUS, Android was cobbled (prematurely) into a Tablet operating system - with the result that early iPad competitors met with tepid (or worse) response.

As far as MacRumors are concerned, its fair to say opinion falls into two camps:

The "Android-believers" think that Android is succesful (in terms of marketshare) because it is superior to iOS. This, they feel, justifies their opinions regarding Flash, Hierarchical File Systems, "Openness", etc.

The "Apple-believers" think that Android achieved the marketshare it did, not because it was "better" than Apple, but rather because it was both "good enough" and "not Apple." That while Apple was limited to a few carriers and models, selling at a premium price - there were enough people who simply wanted a smartphone on whatever their preferred carrier was, to allow Android to get the marketshare edge.

I believe Google's MMI purchase argues that the "Apple-believers" were right. That Android isn't working for Google (at terms of revenue and profit). That the "open source" gambit made it a liability for a company with no patent portfolio to speak for. And that Google's lack of hardware capability, meant that they - and their Android partners - were at least one product cycle behind the iPhone.

In the big scheme of things, most consumers really couldn't care less about Flash running on Android, and not at all about hierarchical file systems.
 
Again, I think you need to think carefully about the "Android Revenue" figure.

As the iOS experience suggests, Google's mobile revenue is largely platform agnostic. Google gets paid for display ads regardless of whether someone searches using an iPhone, a Blackberry, or a Samsung (running Android). As long as Google is the search provider.

To that extent, I think you would have to admit that "revenue generated by Android users" isn't necessarily the same thing as "pure Android revenue" - for the simple reason that they'd still get a lot of it if Android had never existed.

Now, you certainly can argue that Android's existence accelerated a) the rate at which smartphones were adopted and b) the amount of mobile search that got done. But it certainly isn't "one to one." Plus you'd also have to consider the fact that some "mobile search" is simply a replacement for "desktop search": You look for a restaurant on your phone in the car, rather than on your laptop before you leave the house. Google needs to be careful it isn't simply trading dollars.

In my opinion, Google's business plan for Android was fatally flawed from the start. As a profitable multi-billion advertising company, it could afford to toss a few hundred million into developing and giving away Android, hoping that they'd build enough marketshare to control the mobile Operating system business the way Microsoft did with PCs.

But there were some problems:

1) The more marketshare Google got - the more it drew patent lawsuits to the carriers and manufacturers using it. Google's "open source" gambit was a cute way of absolving themselves of any responsibility for patent infringement.

2) The "open source" idea worked - up to a point. But it also meant that there were dozens of different versions, working on different phones. PLUS, Android was cobbled (prematurely) into a Tablet operating system - with the result that early iPad competitors met with tepid (or worse) response.

As far as MacRumors are concerned, its fair to say opinion falls into two camps:

The "Android-believers" think that Android is succesful (in terms of marketshare) because it is superior to iOS. This, they feel, justifies their opinions regarding Flash, Hierarchical File Systems, "Openness", etc.

The "Apple-believers" think that Android achieved the marketshare it did, not because it was "better" than Apple, but rather because it was both "good enough" and "not Apple." That while Apple was limited to a few carriers and models, selling at a premium price - there were enough people who simply wanted a smartphone on whatever their preferred carrier was, to allow Android to get the marketshare edge.

I believe Google's MMI purchase argues that the "Apple-believers" were right. That Android isn't working for Google (at terms of revenue and profit). That the "open source" gambit made it a liability for a company with no patent portfolio to speak for. And that Google's lack of hardware capability, meant that they - and their Android partners - were at least one product cycle behind the iPhone.

In the big scheme of things, most consumers really couldn't care less about Flash running on Android, and not at all about hierarchical file systems.

Quite thoughtful, and I have to agree with you.

I would also add that Google's gambit of flooding the market with Android phones is and was a tactical success for marketshare, but I can not see that it will be the strategic success that justifies the expense that Google and it's OEM's have and will have to absorb.

If anything, Android filled a short term supply imbalance that arguably it can not sustain. Apple is continuing to ramp its supply chain, and current users will continue in the Apple ecosystem at over a 95% rate, something that Android has not and will not be able to match.

Meanwhile, Nokia and MS have not really shown themselves to be players, but considering the churn in the marketplace, and the Windows ecosystem, it would be unlikely that Windows Phone licensees would not be able to obtain a solid third place marketshare, most likely at Androids expense.

My prediction is that Android peaks mid 2012 and begins to see marketshare losses in the First World and the BRIC countries.
 
isnt 12 billion a little much?

don't they understand the only reason most consumers have android is because it's "free" with a 2 year contract? You don't have to an analyst to figure that one out :p
 
isnt 12 billion a little much?

don't they understand the only reason most consumers have android is because it's "free" with a 2 year contract? You don't have to an analyst to figure that one out :p

Taken from The Economist

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but how is the 12.5 billion acquisition a bad deal?

Lets consider past patent deals.

Novell patents
# of patents: 882
cost of patents: $450,000,000

450,000,000 ÷ 882 = $510,204.08 per patent


Motorola patents
# of patents: 24,500 (17k patents, 7k pending)
cost of patents: $12,500,000,000

12,500,000,000 ÷ 24,500 = $510,204.08 per patent


Nortel patents
# of patents: 6,000
cost of patents: $4,500,000,000

4,500,000,000 ÷ 6,000 = $750,000

Also bear in mind that Google gets sole ownership of Motorola patents, whereas the Nortel deal was done through a consortium of Apple, Microsoft, RIM, and others.

Add to that Google now just gained access to millions of peoples' homes by acquiring Motorola's existing Set Top Box business.

Did this shake the tech industry to the core? HECK YES

I'll bet you money that Apple will be acquiring a company for its patents or even more soon.
 
isnt 12 billion a little much?

don't they understand the only reason most consumers have android is because it's "free" with a 2 year contract? You don't have to an analyst to figure that one out :p
Free???
Many high end Android phones costs as much as, if not more than an iPhone.
 
Add to that Google now just gained access to millions of peoples' homes by acquiring Motorola's existing Set Top Box business.

What makes you think Google can do any better than Motorola on a set-top box? Google failed at GoogleTV. And even if Google did some whiz bang ****, what makes you think cable providers (the customer of the set-top box) will want or buy them? Why would they want Google anywhere near their customers?
 
What makes you think Google can do any better than Motorola on a set-top box? Google failed at GoogleTV. And even if Google did some whiz bang ****, what makes you think cable providers (the customer of the set-top box) will want or buy them? Why would they want Google anywhere near their customers?

we'll see how it plays out. Yes, there is no doubt that Comcast and other content providers are extremely wary that Google now has one foot through the door of millions of cable subscribers.

AT&T, Comcast, Charter, all use Moto boxes. I'm optimistic some kind of deal will be made, maybe a cross-revenue sharing deal like what another poster said earlier. We shall see :)
 
http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/08/17/google.motorola.to.make.integrated.phones.too/

Looks like Google wants to throw in the towel on open and free, and go with Apple's vertical market strategy, for itself and the new Mrs.

Some OEM's might have reason to believe that they were lied to.

What's next? Walled garden?

Pathetic.

What exactly is this alleged "leak" that electronista is referring to? The WSJ article is behind a paywall and the electronista gives little information on the alleged leak.

You sound quite sure this is Goole's intention in your post so the WSJ article must have some juicy info. Any other sources have info on the leak?
 
we'll see how it plays out. Yes, there is no doubt that Comcast and other content providers are extremely wary that Google now has one foot through the door of millions of cable subscribers.

AT&T, Comcast, Charter, all use Moto boxes. I'm optimistic some kind of deal will be made, maybe a cross-revenue sharing deal like what another poster said earlier. We shall see :)

The don't have any foot in the door. Motorola doesn't produce or control the UI for any of those cable company boxes, do they? I know Time Warner has there own software for use on Samsung and Cisco boxes. Why would the cable companies do a deal with Google for the UI now when the wouldn't before?
 
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