Google: The Web, Not App Stores, is the Future Of Mobile Development

[sjo]

Hmmm. Buying trends would suggest otherwise.

do we have any information about these "buying trends"? apple haven't published anything but the total amount of apps downloaded, have they? vast majority of those are freeware and demos.

and even then most of the apps on app store could just as well be implemented in the cloud.

 

[Golf Tango]

Google are simply wrong here, native applications will always be faster and more easier to work with than web apps, the web may be huge but the vast majority of people will only visit a tiny part of it. As the storage capacity of devices like the iPhone grows it will make more and more sense to have applications on these devices, it will simply mean faster and easier access to the information that we want to access. The web will always be important but the need for applications to make regularly accessed sites faster is the future

 

[kamiboy]

This won't happen due to one fact, people are bickersome greedy bastards. Everyone has their own agenda and EVERYONE wants to do things their way so no one can come to an agreement on anything and instead of one powerful fully supported standard for the web you have about billions different that each fall short.

Those HTML5 guys couldnt even come to an agreement over a videocodec, talk about selling the hide before the bear is shot. When the web is inherently inferior to native for obvious reasons and then you add into the mix that the web is a far cry from a standartized wonderlad you come to one conclusion, nope, we're going to need apps for a long time to come, and thank god for it.

Who wants to constantly be at the whim of a functioning always present cheap internet connection on ones mobile for ones apps to function? I say let the mobile internet connections mature as much as the desktops are now and then we can talk.

 

[str1f3]

This would mean for everyone to have super fast internet connections wherever they are, can't see that happening to be honest.

Look how far we've come in ten years. We were using 28.8 Kbps. Now we're using broadband. Ten years from now I wouldn't be surprised if we could edit HD through an online app.

I think Google for the most part is correct. Look at the Pre. It can do 90% of what the iPhone can do with the main exception being gaming. With HTML 5 we'll have pseudo native apps that will sync with web apps. Onlive is already trying to do this with gaming.

Native apps won't go away but they'll be used by the hardcore user which may be 5%-10%. They average user will be happy with web app that seems on the surface to be native.

This won't happen due to one fact, people are bickersome greedy bastards. Everyone has their own agenda and EVERYONE wants to do things their way so no one can come to an agreement on anything and instead of one powerful fully supported standard for the web you have about billions different that each fall short.

Those HTML5 guys couldnt even come to an agreement over a videocodec, talk about selling the hide before the bear is shot. When the web is inherently inferior to native for obvious reasons and then you add into the mix that the web is a far cry from a standartized wonderlad you come to one conclusion, nope, we're going to need apps for a long time to come, and thank god for it.

The W3C doesn't have to set a standard. If a standard were set tomorrow there would be no difference. It's up to the websites if and when they support. It's not that hard to support h.264 and Theora. h.264 will win out anyway.

Who wants to constantly be at the whim of a functioning always present cheap internet connection on ones mobile for ones apps to function? I say let the mobile internet connections mature as much as the desktops are now and then we can talk.

Bandwidth is always increasing with new technologies. Five years ago I had a 3Mbps connection. Now I have a 15Mbps connection. Eventually we will get to a point (I'm sure within 15 years) there will be high speed everywhere. Cablevision just introduced a 100Mbps connection. I'm in the middle of a competition between them and Verizon. Competition like this will eventually lower prices of the high end connections.

 

[davidbrummy]

Sun always touted this. Someday the network will not matter. This maybe true but not probably for quite a few years. Let's face it even in San Francisco WI-FI is often not available, 3G is sporadic and Edge is very slow.

The iPhone has shown that hosted applications rule and what people want to do is exchange information over the cloud. It really is that simple.

 

[Prenvo]

Web applications for mobile devices suck, even Google's own "mobile" version for iPhone OS is awful in terms of usability in my opinion.

Native apps (or web-based, but "native" packaged, webOS apps) are more more usable, responsive and intuative - again; in my opinion.

Unless mobile browsers suddenly become super responsive and some sort of unified/standard UI system is created, I highly doubt web applications on mobile devices will be anywhere near as popular as natives.

Meh.

 

[Anuba]

I'll make my own prediction 20 years from now Google will be making toasters and sofas LOL.

Everything critics have said about Apple they have become the most successful in LOL

Yes LOL. Apple are always right LOL.

The Newton was a monster hit LOL.
The Cube and the anniversary Mac LOL are in every home LOL.
They really hit the jackpot with Lisa sales LOL.
Apple TV is a smash hit LOL. Especially after the launch of "Apple TV take two" LOL.
Apple's Cyberdog is the most popular browser ever LOL.
I love hanging out in Apple's community Eworld LOL.
Now I'm going to play some games on my Apple Pippin LOL.
Just gonna make some calls on my ROKR first LOL.

 

[ThomasJL]

Back to dumb terminals?

Does Google think the future will see us going back to early 1980s-style dumb terminals?

 

[Westside guy]

Web apps are present-day reality. Businesses are moving to services like Google Docs. Microsoft just announced Office 2010 with web versions of Word, Excel and PowerPoint.

Problem is, you're not talking about mobile apps at all, which is the main subject of the current discussion. Web-based office apps are taking advantage of the web mainly as a money-saving measure (in terms of deployment and upgrading). They're being deployed in offices, and to some degree people are using them at home - but people aren't using them on the go all that much, except maybe for gmail.

I suspect the future situation is going to be more of a hybrid than the "either-or" version presented in this story. There will always be applications that require more horsepower or a more complicated processing model than is easily offered by a web app - but the dividing line will continue to move. Also, apps that don't benefit much from collaboration or from offering multiple points of access won't have as much impetus to shift over to a web-based solution.

 

[SydneyDev]

Is Apple supposed to be worried about that? They have the best mobile browser as well as the best app store.

 

[Undecided]

Screw cloud computing

Cloud computing is utter junk and I'm afraid that at some point I'll have no alternative because too many dumbasses will buy into it.

No way I want to expose my data to (a) hackers (crackers) breaking into systems or (b) not being able to get to my data because of some bug in the hosting of it.

I want it local, and in a package small enough for me to tote everywhere (tablet?!?).

 

[Frontlinefodder]

Yes,,, but no

IMHO
Locally installed apps, done right will be the future for the majority of apps.

no developer of commercial apps will want to use this, why ?
The first thing a develepor will want to do is look at the platform they are developing for, take android for example, is any data / application really safe on that platform ? I don't think so. As for the iPhone aside from those who have jailbroken their device, each app is sandboxed from each other, each app is safe from being copied.

If it were a web app, the developer puts all his sourcecode there for all to see.
Do you really think tomtom wants their gps app exploitable like that ?

Even so, the developer will still need to 'tweak' thier app for each platform so the app is rendered correctly, safari, chrome, iexplorer Vx, iexplorer Vy, palm. They will all render differently. Screen size ? Does the app need to work on different screen sizes how doesnit lay out on 640x800 ?

So I predict the free and open source apps will go to web apps everything else will remain sdk. Good it will thin out the app store a little bit

 

[SydneyDev]

Cloud computing is utter junk and I'm afraid that at some point I'll have no alternative because too many dumbasses will buy into it.

Storage prices are dropping faster than network prices so that's on your side at least.

 

[Rot'nApple]

Given how long it takes to access my files and pictures via Mobile Me ... I should hope the technology is improved (at least for Apple) before this future is realized.

How fast was that first dial up internet connection? The point being, give it time. Just because technology is light years from what first came out... computers, internet, mobile phones, etc., doesn't mean there still isn't work to do to improve service and increase speed and functionality of the products we enjoy today.

Still I'd rather have native apps from an app store because like Mel Brooks said in his movie "Space Balls", "even in the future, nothing works!!!".

 

[Howmanoid]

Horse feathers

Google should put it's money where it's mouth is and port Super Monkey Ball as a webapp. Rather than arm wave and make grandiose predictions, so us what can be done. FAIL

 

[TodVader]

I'd rather have an app that I can use offline than an app that I need to connect to the internet to use.

For the moment, those apps are way more powerful anyways.

 

[MacCheetah3]

Hi

To this and other comments that ask "what about off-line". The answer is that HTML based "web stuff" can be stored on the local handheld device.

The technology used to develop the app and the place the app is stored after it is released do not have to be related.

As a simple example haven't yu ever saved a flash anamation to you local hard drive? Same thing here. Thisis what Google is talking about.

One browers can do hardware accerated OpenGL graphics there will be little advantage to "native" apps. Why not use HTML5?

We are not talking about "cloud computing" all he was sayiong was that developers will build cross platform apps. Write onec run anyplace.

I see where you're going with this and it is still a good but not feasible idea. Break it down to simplicity and we're just talking a single ( standardized ) platform / OS. In an overly general aspect that sounds like a great idea but there are a lot of reasons it is a bad idea. While we're on the subject anyway, why not just nominate Mac OS X? It has fared well on handhelds, laptops, desktops, and servers. Seems like a great start, no?

Let's face it. This idea has certainly been tried before. Not that it will never succeed but there are a lot of variables involved.

In conclusion, there are several stories of success from App Store developers of porting titles and without some unimaginable effort. Obviously, current OS developers can certainly entice app developers if they want. As pointed out, something like a successful App Store is a great place for developers as it lowers their non-developing costs ( marketing, distribution, ... )

 

[sushi]

What if you are not connected to the Web?

Need to have stand alone applications.

Granted that Cloud computing and storage is going to play a bigger role in the future. I don't see dedicated stand alone applications going away any time soon.

 

[wizard]

Absolutely silly.

If this guy is actually a VP at Google, Google might as well bend over and kiss it's ass good bye. All this is to me is an attempt to pull developers into a failing platform.

Don't get me wrong I believe web apps have a place but frankly a mobile device is the worst place for them. There are many problems but number one is that you don't always have a net connection. Sometimes it is important to have those apps functional away from the cloud. Second cloud based apps are a security risk. Third performance and resource usage is a huge problem. Fourth related to resource usage is access to hardware beyound the limited API of HTML & Javascript. Fifth HTML and Javascript are no place for games or other processor intensive apps.

Really I'm not sure what this guy was thinking. My current iPhone is more powerful than at least half the computers I've ever owned and this guy wants to waste all that capability on an extremely limited interpetted environment. Not this guy folks. I don't have a lot of apps intalled on my iPhone but to think that some of them would be implementable in Javascript is just to much of a joke.

Hey maybe the will open up a VP slot at Google real soon now. Obviously they have low standards so maybe I could get in with my two year degree.
Dave

 

[twoodcc]

i think the app store has already answered this question

 

[DMann]

Native apps will always run better than web apps. I DO NOT want Apple going in that direction (not that they are), not to mention there are plenty of areas where 3g/EDGE access is either poor or not around at all.

Web apps have their uses, like MobileMe and iWork.com (which will hopefully expand like Office 2010 is), but Native apps are here to stay.

There is no way JavaScript can compare to compiled Objective-C. JavaScript is terrible as a "real" language. Sure, you can do cool things with it, but ultimately it's a giant hack. Objective-C on the other hand is a thing of beauty, as far as languages go.

Further, big companies and even small developers will want to protect their intellectual property rather than release it as pure JavaScript source for the world to inspect and copy.

Cliff
10 years Java, 8 years JavaScript, 2 years Objective-C.

Didn't Apple already try web apps and it failed woefully, who even uses them on their iphones anymore now with native apps.

Totally agree. Also, web apps are not very useful while flying on international flights which do not provide Wi-Fi. Same applies to most smaller craft, lear jets, and Cessnas. Native apps keep the phone more consistently functional, more responsive, and richer in content. - there is no substitute.

 

[SydneyDev]

Search is a natural app for the server side, because the index has to cross multiple sites. But many other apps are a better fit for the client side. Google just wishes everything was best on the server because that's where their skills lie. If only wishes were horses I should buy some Google shares.

 

[mdriftmeyer]

I'm thinking in the future when speed is not a issue. I don't think its ready now, but the idea of storing files online, or for a example "google docs" using the the web browser to access, create documents online is a benefit to the user because they can access them anywhere. Another example that is online mail (gmail, yahoo mail, hotmail) most of use it & no one complains about it, I think most prefer it. I don't have to install gmail or update a gmail app its all done by google or whoever you use for mail...

When speed is not an issue? What year? 2035?

 

[aussie.damo]

Web apps are present-day reality. Businesses are moving to services like Google Docs. Microsoft just announced Office 2010 with web versions of Word, Excel and PowerPoint.

Which businesses do you think are making this shift? I work in the enterprise space doing desktop transformations, and never once has anyone even requested something like Google Docs. It's a myth. Google is trying to leverage their web search "platform" to increase the share of the desktop, but it's just not a logical link.

Microsoft may find some success with Office 2010 web edition, but only because it complements an already very successful thick client.

So whilst web apps have a future, it won't be this year, or next.

Damo

 

[Mjmar]

Of course Google's gonna say that... It doesn't mean that it's right.