The level of expectations is different I guess. The design choices of the iPad was a collection of big question marks. They gave us USB-C but kept the Lightning Pencil. They gave the iPad side FaceID and the better keyboard but not the iPad Pros.
We are all expecting these Macs to be an incremental update with not much changes. What would really surprise us is if they somehow disappoint us again like they did with the iPad.
The answer for this was pretty nonsurprising, even if disappointing. Apple never updates more than one item in any particular lineup per year (they consider the MBP 14 and 16 to be the same). After updating the iPad Pros in 2018 followed by the iPad Air and then the iPad mini, it was finally time for the iPad base model to be updated to the latest design language. This is why the base iPad went USB-C and got square, and why the iPad Pros got spec bumps.
Apple sometimes experiments with items that get left out of more advanced models, creating an inconsistency in their lineup. I’ll use Center Stage as an example. The base iPad got Center Stage before the iPad Air because the Air had been the most recently released before Apple made a decision to put Center Stage on all. That left the Air as a distorted product missing features the base iPad had. It was a no-brainer that the next iPad Air would have Center Stage and it did, correcting the inconsistency.
This time around, Apple finally made a decision to move the camera, but the next one up was the base iPad, so that distorts the rest of the lineup temporarily. It’s a no-brainer the next iPad Pro will get the landscape camera. But also keep in mind you can’t just move that camera without consequences. The camera eats up all the space where the charger for the Apple Pencil 2 would be. This meant the base iPad could not use the Apple Pencil 2 without moving it elsewhere (can’t think of a good place to go without blocking ports or speakers) or redesigning the charger and pencil. As a stopgap measure, Apple created the dongle. As a side effect, it made it cheaper for older iPad owners with Pencil 1’s to upgrade. The camera move makes it inevitable that the next iPad Pro will have a new Apple Pencil 3 with magnets in different positions to allow it to attach to an iPad with different magnet positions as well, probably straddling the camera. They are not going to introduce a brand new Apple Pencil with the base model and will save that for the Pros. Shorter Apple Pencil rumors, anyone? That’s been out there for a while now. My prediction is an Apple Pencil 3 on the top (or left side if landscape) that is short enough to not block slightly widened speaker grills.
The iPad Pro rumors had no set target, so it was unsurprising none of them panned out because it’s not the iPad Pro’s turn yet to be redesigned. With the cycle now complete, it is the Pros up next for a new design language. I’m going to guess those features like camera movement, new PIN layout, reverse wireless charging with MagSafe, and double stacked OLED screens will appear in the next iPad. With a date for the OLED screens rumored for 2024, that tells me that there will be no iPad Pros in 2023 and that it will still be on an 18-month schedule putting the release of the redesigned iPad Pros in March of 2024.
If you look at it from the viewpoint that Apple only redesigns one product at a time, every rumor and inconsistency falls into place.