Gurman: Apple to Launch New Macs Next Month, With More to Come Around May or June

[deconstruct60]

and while it's not entirely clear which new Mac will be unveiled next month, Gurman speculates it's likely to be a high-end Mac mini and a refreshed low-end 13-inch MacBook Pro.

Given that two of the oldest Apple Silicon Macs in the lineup today are the entry-level MacBook Pro and Mac mini, I'd guess that those models will be next to be upgraded.

That does not make much sense. Why would it be narrowed down to just oldest 'Apple Silicon' Macs and not 'oldest Macs' ? Apple is trying to sell as many Intel CPU as possible over 2022? In June 2022 Apple got up and said "going to be done with transition in 2 years" and two years later they are actively trying to miss that deadline? The 'lower half' M1 Mini probably isn't top priority.

It seems far, far, more likely that at least one of these March Mac roll outs is removing at least one of the remaining Intel Macs. Going to "round 2" on a the ones you already transitioned when still asleep at the wheel on remaining set is a head scratcher.

The easiest thing to do is just put a M1 Pro/Max into the existing Mac Mini chassis. Call it new "Mini Pro". No new gyrations on chassis design needed. The "upper end" Mini is from. 2018! If you look at the current leading edge competing desktop processors on the Windows for a smaller "mini sized" computer , the Mini is way past stale. This is like the four year gap between the 2014 and 2018 Mini. Time to snap out of Rip van Winkle mode.


The 27" iMac Pro is probably entangled in some miniLED supply chain drama. That could be announced at WWDC 2022 so as to not add it to the "dog ate my homework" excuse pile, but doesn't ship until closer to July. The multi-die Mac Pro SoCs might need some new macOS feature to demo on WWDC 2022 and release in October with new macOS 13. They claim "finished" on transition with some future targeted timeframe promises. They'll need some June 2022 isn't actually 'two years' relative to June 2020 explanation.


The other largely by-pass industrial design options for March are just to bump iMac 24" and (mostly misnamed) MBP 13" to M2. ( If go to website there are no supply chain delays on ordering these. ). That would give Apple three over $1,200 systems to sell which should be good for goosing Mac revenues for Q2.

The M2 Mini likely is getting a case redesign. So is the MBA (which could also be entangled in miniLED supply chain drama). The industrial design folks also have iMac 27" , maybe discrete monitor/thunderbolt docking station, and half sized Mac Pro also to do. Also probably distractions of VR/AR goggles , money pit Car project, ever present iPhone iterations , iPad Pro updates, etc.

The smaller Mini (M2) slides into the Fall because was de-prioritized behind iMac 27" and "half sized" Mac Pro for design resources. MBA slides while Apple ponders how much to raise the base price. The M1 MBA was likely the highest selling M1 and so probably the last one off . They will probably use it to suck up the dregs of the M1 supply at the end. (and it happens to force folks to higher priced Macs if want to get to M2 'early'; so more profits too ).

 

[Realityck]

It’s a developers conference. Having a truly pro chip should get attention for developers that the M1 is not good enough to handle. You know the Xeons and desktop class performance. Developers should know these things to start developing or enhancing their product. It’s why the Arm test kit was discussed at WWDC since it’s a developer conference. It’s why Apple announced the Mac Pro and Display at WWDC too.

Given how the industry has changed, the last 2 WWDC had no hardware announcements, Apple can in week notice do a digital presentation. Monopolizing a WWDC keynote that is now a digital presentation doesn’t draw the attention of developers anymore then a separate dedicated products event.

 

[Ethosik]

Given how the industry has changed, the last 2 WWDC had no hardware announcements, Apple can in week notice do a digital presentation. Monopolizing a WWDC keynote that is now a digital presentation doesn’t draw the attention of developers anymore then a separate dedicated products event.

M1 wasnt ready at WWDC 2020. They did announce the DTK hardware. I’m sure last year the M1 Pro and M1 Max weren’t ready yet to talk about it.

I’m not saying they need to announce hardware every year. But they did in 2017, 2019 and 2020 with the DTK. And an Apple Silicon Mac Pro if it’s ready for announcement but available this fall is perfect for WWDC, just like in 2019. We probably won’t get any more at WWDC after everything is transitioned. But it’s still relevant now for developers.

 

[Realityck]

Writing in his latest Power On newsletter, Gurman said, "Apple is already gearing up for another round of Mac releases around May or June," following its Mac announcement next month. Apple has several new Apple silicon Macs in the pipeline set to be released this year, and while it's not entirely clear which new Mac will be unveiled next month, Gurman speculates it's likely to be a high-end Mac mini and a refreshed low-end 13-inch MacBook Pro.

What a copycat. We all know the AS product releases have occurred approximately November and May, so duh about the May prediction.
This guy is running on empty with his predictions.

 

[Realityck]

M1 wasnt ready at WWDC 2020. They did announce the DTK hardware. I’m sure last year the M1 Pro and M1 Max weren’t ready yet to talk about it.

DTK was a Mac Mini with a A12x used only for testing Big Sur with developers Software for universal or native compatibility. It was not a product. The release of the M1 and mini, air, and MRB13 was to greatly grow the feedback of software development of universal or native ARM applications. All those products were reasonable.

 

[BanjoDudeAhoy]

I personally think that’s going to be launched in October/November 2022 ?

Yeah, I think you’re probably right.
I don’t desperately need a new one, though, so it’s fine.
It’s just the possibility of a new design and colors… ?

 

[Ethosik]

DTK was a Mac Mini with a A12x used only for testing Big Sur with developers Software for universal or native compatibility. It was not a product. The release of the M1 and mini, air, and MRB13 was to greatly grow the feedback of software development of universal or native ARM applications. All those products were reasonable.

You said they didn’t release hardware but they did. And it was a product for…..developers. Not for the consumer. And I thought you said devs don’t care about WWDC then why announce it? What does the D mean in WWDC? Why have they announced iMac Pro, Mac Pro, swift updates, developer betas, new APIs and other things if WWDC is not for developers?

 

[Realityck]

You said they didn’t release hardware but they did. And it was a product for…..developers. Not for the consumer. And I thought you said devs don’t care about WWDC then why announce it? What does the D mean in WWDC?

I don’t consider the DTK releasing hardware.
Apple required the return of all DTKs, at least all developers got their $499 back.

 

[Realityck]

That does not make much sense. Why would it be narrowed down to just oldest 'Apple Silicon' Macs and not 'oldest Macs' ? Apple is trying to sell as many Intel CPU as possible over 2022? In June 2022 Apple got up and said "going to be done with transition in 2 years" and two years later they are actively trying to miss that deadline? The 'lower half' M1 Mini probably isn't top priority.

It seems far, far, more likely that at least one of these March Mac roll outs is removing at least one of the remaining Intel Macs. Going to "round 2" on a the ones you already transitioned when still asleep at the wheel on remaining set is a head scratcher.

Bloomberg should fire Gurman and hire you. A Intel Mac upgrade makes a lot more sense then some out of phase M2 speculation. The Mac mini would be a logical suspect for that as it still uses Intel.

 

[Ethosik]

I don’t consider the DTK releasing hardware.
Apple required the return of all DTKs, at least all developers got their $499 back.

Well technically it was new hardware that was released. It was just for developers.

 

[deconstruct60]

It’s a developers conference. Having a truly pro chip should get attention for developers that the M1 is not good enough to handle. You know the Xeons and desktop class performance. Developers should know these things to start developing or enhancing their product. It’s why the Arm test kit was discussed at WWDC since it’s a developer conference. It’s why Apple announced the Mac Pro and Display at WWDC 2019 too. And why Apple announced not only normal iMacs but iMac Pro in 2017 WWDC.

Apple announced the Mac Pro 2019 at WWDC 2019 primarily because the then current Mac Pro model was 6 years old at that point. In April 2017, Apple held a "dog ate my homework" meeting and said they were working on something. That was in part driven by the rising tide of tech articles about the Mac Pro passing the 1,000 days old marker and how soon until we get to 2000. Apple reset the entry level configuration (and defacto the price) of the Mac Pro so some sites like macumors re-set the "days since update" timers to get it off of > 1,000.

In WWDC 2017 no Mac Pro ( just like 2014 , 2015 , 2016 ... no Mac Pro). WWDC 2018 .. no Mac Pro It was embarrassingly old as dirt and they needed to say something. It did not ship until December. And not in quantity until 2020.

Similar with iMac Pro 2017 as the MP 2013 was 4 years old at that point. Another ... "it is so old we have to say something" moment. [ besides the embedded screen the iMP was a similar "minimal literal desktop footprint , 400W cap , limited internal expansion solution for Pros as the MP 2013 was. Had the single bigger default option that Apple mentioned in their April 2017 session as well as "doing something in Pro space with iMac". ]


There is a "Mac Pro WWDC " broken analog clock club. Every Jan-March there is an upswell of "Mac Pro is extra ordinarily important so Apple going to be a big dog and pony show at WWDC this year for it". And it typically doesn't happen. But then as an broken analogy clock is the current time twice a day, the Mac Pro lands on WWDC and the "theory" is proven.

The Mac Pro is likely going to be the last system to do the transition. WWDC 2022 will talk about the closure of the transition so it will probably get mentioned. Probably as yet another "Just you wait , sometime before the end of Fall, we will ship".

The only "developer" factor for the WWDC 2019 was the addition to Metal to handle data communication through AMD Infinity Fabric for the Pro Vega II Duo card. That's was mainly it. Plus folks who had beta Mac Pro's didn't have to tip-toe through quite as dense NDA minefields until the Fall release.

That NUMA GPU memory may slightly pop back up again with the multi-die GPUs that the 2-4 chip packages present to the low level graphics developer and new/updated Metal APIs to deal with that. Once again the previewed system would pragmatically need upcoming Fall new macOS release to work well.



P.S. Appears to be a "iPod Touch is 1,000 days old" article out today on macrumors. Maybe Apple will do something in 2023 after there is a rash of publicity clowning their inaction.

 

[Realityck]

I personally think that’s going to be launched in October/November 2022 ?

2 years later, same 6 months interval, after the next iPhone releases using a A16. Easy odds.

 

[theluggage]

High end professionals don't necessarily follow WWDC.

Anybody who bothers to follow any Apple events/launches follows the annual WWDC Keynote presentation which kicks off the developer conference, even if they are not developers and have no interest in the developers' sessions that follow. It has frequently been used to launch hardware - and sometimes to tease new hardware that won't launch. Most notably the Mac Pro Trashcan, the iMac Pro and the 2019 Mac Pro were announced at WWDC keynotes.

Also, upcoming hardware sometimes has implications for developers, so the keynote is a good time to announce them before the actual developers sessions let the cat out of the bag. That could be the case with the rumoured 2x and 4x SoCs for the Mac Pro/high-end iMac, maybe even the M2 if it has any special new tricks.

What is true is that there are nearly always enough software announcements (usually announcements of new MacOS and iOS versions) that the WWDC Keynote doesn't depend on having new hardware announcements.

WWDC is a developers conference, not a professionals conference.

I think a lot of professional developers just unfriended you

 

[theluggage]

In April 2017, Apple held a "dog ate my homework" meeting and said they were working on something.

WWDC 2022 will be two years after the announcement of the "about two years" transition period to Apple Silicon and while they didn't promise exactly two years, people will remember that the "two year" transition to Intel was done in one, and will be getting impatient... if they haven't said something about replacement Mac Pro, high-end Mini and 27" iMac replacements by WWDC, they'll have another pile of damp, chewed-up homework to deal with.

In particular, Apple have yet to demonstrate how they're going to match the highest-spec Mac Pro CPU, GPU and RAM configurations of the Mac Pro with Apple Silicon.

 

[deconstruct60]

Bloomberg should fire Gurman and hire you. A Intel Mac upgrade makes a lot more sense then some out of phase M2 speculation. The Mac mini would be a logical suspect for that as it still uses Intel.

I haven't read the actual newsletter but 9to5mac reported that it said there were seven items ( not the 5 that macrumors said was there. How you mix up the count I'm not sure. )

"...
But how will those processors be spread across the Mac lineup? Gurman writes that he is expecting at least seven new Macs with Apple Silicon the inside across 2022:

• A new Mac mini with an M1 Pro chip
• A 13-inch MacBook Pro with an M2 chip, to succeed the 2020 model and sit below the 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro in the line
• A Mac mini with an M2 chip
• A 24-inch iMac with an M2 chip
• A redesigned MacBook Air with an M2 chip
• A larger iMac Pro with M1 Pro and M1 Max chip options
• A half-sized Mac Pro, the first with Apple Silicon, with the equivalent of either two or four M1 Max chips

..."

Gurman: Apple to launch new Macs in March, followed by even more in May/June - 9to5Mac

The Apple Silicon transition is expected to gain even more momentum this year with the launch of a slew of...

9to5mac.com

Overall, Apple is expected to launch five new Macs this year:



[ versus ...

"... Overall, Apple is expected to launch five new Macs this year: ... "

Which New Mac Will Apple Release at Its March Event?

Apple is widely expected to unveil a new Mac next month, but with the high-end Mac mini, the 27-inch iMac, and the Mac Pro all still featuring Intel...

www.macrumors.com

...]

He appears to just being sloppy by ignoring the old as dirt Macs.


Gurman appears to be one of the 'unofficial' mouthpieces that Apple uses to do deliberate, directed leaks when the messaging and rumors get too off track from Apple's desired path , but they are constrained from officially talking about future products by rigid corporate policy. To keep the deliberate leaker status probably can't mention when the emperor has no clothes or other embarrassing things too often least you get your status taken away. So pointing at refreshed Apple Silicon is a timely responsive Apple. Pointing at "about to miss their two year deadline" is point at where they are stumbling in the Mac product evolution ( as has repetitively done on various products off and on over the last decade. ) In attention to detail is "bad Apple".

If the buzz around no Intel updates while going to 2nd gen on other products becomes an irritant for Apple then they made dump info on him to do rumor course correction. There is gap between when Gurman says "I wish, I think Apple should do X, Y . Z " and this being "anonymous direct quote from someone at Apple says A, B. C. ". Perhaps he is trying to protect sources by sometimes doing the former when it is the latter. However, now that on a weekly newsletter content generation demand cycle ... taking a page from old MacRumors contributing article person of throwing out slanted front page articles that stir the vigorous rumor debate pot and generate ad views.

 

[Realityck]

WWDC 2022 will be two years after the announcement of the "about two years" transition period to Apple Silicon and while they didn't promise exactly two years, people will remember that the "two year" transition to Intel was done in one, and will be getting impatient... if they haven't said something about replacement Mac Pro, high-end Mini and 27" iMac replacements by WWDC, they'll have another pile of damp, chewed-up homework to deal with.

In particular, Apple have yet to demonstrate how they're going to match the highest-spec Mac Pro CPU, GPU and RAM configurations of the Mac Pro with Apple Silicon.

The announcement of a two year product transition can be interpreted as you said, but also using the M1 announcement in Nov 2020. Apple being one of first companies to sell consumer based ARM computers is not the same as making a Intel based Mac.

Mon 6 Jun 2005

Steve Jobs has committed Apple Computer to an aggressive timetable for porting the Mac architecture to Intel, while promising a smooth transition for developers and ISVs already building applications and services for PowerPC machines.

Apple will roll out Intel-based Macs during the next two years with machines available by next June and a phased introduction to be "mostly" complete by the end of 2007. Apple announced the rollout at the World Wide Developer Conference (WWDC) in San Francisco on Monday.

Back then he gave Apple more than two years since that announcement.

 

[noone]

Or worse.

Arguably the 24" iMac was better than the old 21" model. I can deal with white bezels, but personally I can't get past the washed out pastel colours on the front.

This is my big problem too. I love the colors on the back (the green & blue especially) but I don't like the pastel stand/chin.

 

[Realityck]

This is my big problem too. I love the colors on the back (the green & blue especially) but I don't like the pastel stand/chin.

How much you guys forget. Apple as well as many vendors used pastel colored plastics to surround computers and monitors in the past. The front of the 24" is mean to be not staring at bright or darker colors, compared to the back of the 24" was a lot more pronounced to accent the iMacs present in a room decorated with these colors. The most conservative color choice was silver which is what I use, its a lot less distracting when used in a room where the wall colors literally blend leaving the screen to be a lot more pronounced. I was never a fan of the darker displays or all in one computers. They for the most part were too visible and distracted one to the charm of a room. Just like I hated black and reflective bezels surrounding 4K TVs. Now its all about minimizing the frame around 4K TVs and making the TV blend in with the room. The 24" iMac succeeded compared to the older black surrounding the older 21" and 27" models. I know some like that, but it makes the computer more visible than the display.

 

[Tagbert]

Well, they're clearly not doing a yearly schedule, at least for now — if they release an M2 in March, that'll be 17 months after the M1.

I think they should eventually settle for 18 months, skipping an Ax every other time. But right now, it's looking more like 24 months.

I don't think that we are seeing Apple's ongoing update schedule, yet. Between the transition and COVID, this schedule is likely much more chaotic and delayed that they want. After this all shakes out, I think some models will settle into an 18 month SOC update cycle and others may get annual updates.

 

[theluggage]

The announcement of a two year product transition can be interpreted as you said, but also using the M1 announcement in Nov 2020.

If you take that definition, then the PPC to Intel transition was done and dusted in about 6 months, from the first MacBook Pro release to the final Mac Pro/XServe release.

Mon 6 Jun 2005
Back then he gave Apple more than two years since that announcement.

...but the reality:
6 Jun 2005: Transition announced:
10 Jan 2006: First Intel product launched - MacBook Pro
7 August 2006: Mac Pro and XServe Xeon announced, completing the range.

Apple being one of first companies to sell consumer based ARM computers is not the same as making a Intel based Mac.

I'm not saying anything was trivial but Apple were already making ARM-based phones and iPads, including the iPad Pro which was already more powerful than the MacBook Air.

Anyway - the "about two years" was their figure - their problem if they over-promised.

 

[Tagbert]

When MacRumors folk mention WWDC what they really mean is “The WWDC keynote presentation“ which has long been a publicity beano. The developer conference happens after that (and used to be a relatively expensive paid event before it went all-virtual). It’s pretty common for conference keynotes to be publicity-focussed events partly aimed at the press.

Yes, and usually the hardware that is announced at the WWDC is not the consumer line but the professional and developer focused hardware like the Mac Pro.

 

[Tagbert]

I’m sure the hardware leaking is solid but gurman is completely guessing which is happening when. Educated guesses but still.

It is much easier to get leaked information about hardware as that involved multiple companies. Announcement and release dates are much harder as that is all controlled within a small group in Apple who are much less likely to leak information. Also those plans can change quickly. I'm not surprised that Gurman's rumors about launch dates are so vague.

 

[cwwilson]

The best thing about a new 24” M2 iMac is that it will bring down the prices on the M1’s so I’m pretty excited for that to happen. Looking to snatch me a mid range M1 iMac to replace my 2017 4K!

 

[deconstruct60]

1. High end professionals don't necessarily follow WWDC. WWDC is a developers conference, not a professionals conference.

Apple has stated on some occasions that developers are one of their biggest classes of "Pros". For example:

"...
Craig Federighi: I think if you use Xcode downloads as a metric, it’s possible software developers are actually our largest pro audience. It’s growing very quickly, its been fantastic. ..."
https://techcrunch.com/2017/04/06/t...-john-ternus-on-the-state-of-apples-pro-macs/

When Apple says "Pros" it far closer to "anyone using a Mac that has a high amount of equipment budget allocation to buy a computer" as oppose to some professional certificate/certification gated entry, profession. Software developers is one of the major targets. ( Often can use "other people's money" (expense account, purchase order , etc.) to buy equipment. People are much more willing to spend other people's money than their own. )


It is a mixed bag. The WWDC Keynote is increasingly bad from a developer details perspective. It is largely a dog and pony show far more than a overview information session for developers. There are a huge block of external tech porn journalists invited to the Keynote (not just developers). A sizable Apple employee cheering section too ( in part as a reward for hard work but also to provide positive atmosphere).

The Keynote typically starts off with a Carl Sagan "Billions and Billions " segment. (i.e., buy Apple stock .. it is going up. We/us make megabucks . ) [ as they are not a trillion dollar enterprise there is now some softening segment of self deprecating humor that precedes that to make the company seem more human. ]

The bulk of the keynote is how to use the visually cool, nifty, new features of the beta version of the multiple OS systems and apps they are about to unleash. Telling some small set of developers they have just been "Sherlocked". Telling some others they are on thin ice. Helping a larger block prioritize sessions on the list . Also getting around the problems when thousands of folks download and use new software when haven't read any directions or manuals.

The "State of the Union " session is closer to be a real opening for issues at the developer level. Although that too is also starting to slide into dog and pony show land. In part, because it is being stretched too thin as there are going to be six operating systems to cover six operating systems. ( macOS , iPadOs , iOS , tvOS (stretched over homePod) , watchOS , and soon to be realityOS . Maybe eventually carOS, streamingOS , etc. etc. etc. ).

2. It makes even more sense for developers to have the machines available in-stores BEFORE WWDC, than to get an announcement at WWDC with availability weeks later.

Usually not. In normal times most folks travel to WWDC and back. So basically restricting them to brings laptops. Many developer do primarily work on laptops, but some do not. And the small subset that need a high end desktop to get their work down are not going to bring it with them.

May not want to push your "this is my job" laptop onto a "dripping wet, paint not dry" beta version of MacOS. That would be better for the backup laptop. Or at least "alternative world" external drive. What dealing with is software not ready for prime time. A bleeding edge machine matched with bleeding edge beta software probably isn't the most stable educational tool.

3. M1 Pro/Max devices are already available anyway. By all accounts the M1 Pro/Max MacBook Pros are extremely popular with developers and high end professionals.

The WWDC convention typically happens after Computek in Taiwan (last week in May). Before intel's product roll out schedule get SNAFU'ed by their lack of execution, late May was a common place for Intel (and AMD somewhat) to roll out new laptop processors. When Apple was in synch with that rollout focus there would be new Mac laptop(s) at WWDC because that was a somewhat common time of year that new laptop processors rolled out.

There are external factors that push some things into the WWDC launch windows. At one point iPhones were in but pragmatically Apple has pushed themselves into a quagmire of every September no matter what window for that product ( at least the top end variants).

4. High end equipment isn't exclusively sold to high end professional software users. For example, I'm a business application user and would consider a M1 Pro Mac mini simply to get additional ports vs. the consumer models. If say the base M1 Pro Mac mini is "only" $300 or so more than the regular M1 Mac mini,

That is highly doubtful. M1 Pro means can't sink any lower than 16GB of memory. The current 16GB Intel model starts at $1,299. That is $600 more than the starting M1 version. M1 Pro has more performance so probably looking at another $100-200 on top of that. ( it is a bigger die (2x the size) and four stacks of RAM in two more customized packages that is more expensive to make so Apple is likely to charge more than a simple Intel RAM upgrade for it).
Apple isn't about lowering prices with Apple Silicon. Probably even less so with substantive inflation kicking in.

 

[Tagbert]

Given how the industry has changed, the last 2 WWDC had no hardware announcements, Apple can in week notice do a digital presentation. Monopolizing a WWDC keynote that is now a digital presentation doesn’t draw the attention of developers anymore then a separate dedicated products event.

The 2020 WWDC keynote was mainly about Apple Silicon hardware. There were strong indicators that the new MBPs were originally planned to be announced at the 2021 WWDC but production delays bumped them into the fall. The 2017 WWDC keynote even announced the HomePod. that was a little odd as it was a consumer product but Apple probably hoped that it would get devs more interested in HomeKit.

that WWDC keynote is often used to talk to the larger professional community and to the press. The actual WWDC conference is much more dev focused. It would not be a surprised if Apple announced some new professional-focused computers in the keynote.