Gurman: Redesigned MacBook Air Delayed to Second Half of 2022, No New High-End MacBook Pro Likely Until Next Year

[ValO]

I’m betting on Mac Pro at WWDC.

As for my desired M1 Pro Mac mini, even if they do release it soon, I’m a little concerned it won’t show up in the edu promo. Apple has not always consistently included the Mac mini in the promo every year, whereas the iMac is always included.

The MacBook Air usually is included but not necessarily all models. For example in 2019 they included the brand new just released 2019 MacBook Air as well as the 2018 MacBook Air, but excluded the 2017 model. (Both the 2017 and the 2018 were discontinued on the day the promotion started, but only the 2017 model was excluded from the promotion.)

WWDC: macpro with m2 ultra/xtreme (2xm2 ultra) announcement (available fall 2022)
Later this year/fall: mac mini m2, MacBook Air m2(and old model
MacBook Pro with m2?)
2023:
Next year match event: Mac mini m2 pro, iMac m2
Next year wwdc: MacBook Pro m2 pro and m2 max.
Fall: Mac studio m2 max and m2 ultra .

I think we’ ll get a 2 year cycle with updates of the m-chips, with different mac form factors released throughout those 2 years.

Macpro will now be the first to get the new m2 based architecture, but will be last to be updated in the next product cycles, so in 2024 we’ ll get the next update for the macpro with m3 ultra/extreme.

 

[Mr. Dee]

Agree with these sentiments - has been said many times, but I don't think it's delayed, was just the plan all along. I never understood the rationale of rumors saying Apple would release an M2 MBA when they hadn't even rolled out the rest of the M1 line (M1/Pro/Max/Ultra). Would just make for such weird marketing messages, and would be done completely unnecessarily.

Makes way more sense this way to get the full M1 lineup out, and then come out with the M2, in order of low>high-end.

The Mac Pro is the one thing that's a bit tricky, since it's truly a professional / non-consumer facing device, and it's coming at the end of this 2yr transition. I would not be surprised if they release this post-M2 MBA release, and jump directly to the M2 Ultra+. If they kept the Mac Pro with M1 Ultra+, I think there's a chance for potential buyers to be a bit miffed that despite number of cores, it would be based on the original M1 architecture...




Yes, I really think Apple will continue to keep the "need to pay up to get large size" philosophy, and keep the 15/16" laptop size only for the MBP line-up. A larger MBA might "sell like hotcakes", but it would also cannibalize potential 16" MBP buyers.

I'm thinking the Mac Pro is gonna be an M2 Ultra product. Yes, it would mean going back on their word of completing the entire line within 2 years. But considering they updated components for the existing Intel Mac Pro alongside the Mac Studio, it would make sense to not have to rush it out just to meet some self imposed dead line.

Besides, the reviews are saying it, the Mac Studio definitely is fast for target audience. Hey, if you can keep and support your Intel Mac Pro a little longer, why not? June 2023 for a Mac Pro with 4 fused together M2 Ultra chips would be insane! On top of being based on the 4 NM would give it a significant reason to wait and a standout for the first generation of the M series. Also, it would be 5 years since the Intel Mac Pro was launched, providing a justifiable time for those who first bought it to consider upgrading if they so choose.

 

[Tagbert]

Seems like the chip shortages have gotten to Apple.
To be honest I was surprised Apple could meet the demand in 2021 anyway.

Not sure about that.

The original rumors had the M2 Air coming out in the second half of 2022.

It wasn't until this spring that the rumors shifted to a spring launch of the M2 Air. Everyone was surprised thinking it was too soon. Evidently it was too soon. Instead we got the Mac Studio and an M1 Ultra. Now we get a rumor of M2 Air in the second half of 2022.

Back to the same place.

 

[Tagbert]

Yeah, it’s going to be a very meh year if that’s all they have to offer until September…

An iPad which is basically the same as the last gen, and an iPhone which is basically the same as last gen… oh and don’t forget two new colours of the iPhone 13… all pretty meh IMO…

Don’t get me wrong the studio display and Mac studio are both nice products but they’re expensive and they don’t appeal to the general consumer.

This makes me think there has got to be something before September coming surely…

Mac Pro in June perhaps?

 

[Tagbert]

my girlfriend has the MacBook Air nov 2017 13"

she is looking to upgrade as her battery life is really bad on her MacBook Air

her work mainly is with excel / sending emails / web based stuff

is it worth waiting for the newest MacBook Air later this year ? will she be missing out on anything big? she is not a power user by any means.

or just go ahead and pull the trigger on current m1 air ?

thanks

The current M1 Air will seem both familiar and amazingly fast to her. It has everything that 2017 had but with much more performance and much longer battery life. If you can, spring for the 16GB version. You might be OK with the 8GB in the short term but it's a good way to hedge your bet for longer life out of it.

The expected Air is likely to feature an M2 process which will be incrementally faster than the M1 but more like each iPhone process is faster. It is unlikely to be life changing. They are expected to redesign the case to be flatter than the current design but overall maybe a little thinner but without the wedge shape. Likely will get the same notch as the MBP. It will probably get a version of MagSafe like the MBP. Beyond that, no one know much else. might be a little more expensive.

If you can hold out until October/November and really want the new design, then do so. Otherwise, if you need it now, you won't really miss out on much and will have a fantastic laptop in your hands now.

 

[Think creative]

The current M1 Air will seem both familiar and amazingly fast to her. It has everything that 2017 had but with much more performance and much longer battery life. If you can, spring for the 16GB version. You might be OK with the 8GB in the short term but it's a good way to hedge your bet for longer life out of it.

The expected Air is likely to feature an M2 process which will be incrementally faster than the M1 but more like each iPhone process is faster. It is unlikely to be life changing. They are expected to redesign the case to be flatter than the current design but overall maybe a little thinner but without the wedge shape. Likely will get the same notch as the MBP. It will probably get a version of MagSafe like the MBP. Beyond that, no one know much else. might be a little more expensive.

If you can hold out until October/November and really want the new design, then do so. Otherwise, if you need it now, you won't really miss out on much and will have a fantastic laptop in your hands now.

Yeah. I'm waiting because I can hold onto my (2015 13 inch MBP) for the summer since it's my personal/backup machine, not my main machine. Battery isn't what it once was, but with only one or two trips this summer, it's not worth the upgrade if we have new machines with MagSafe again. Glad I waited this long, six more months I can handle. The truth is, the air's with M1's (and soon to be M2's) are well beyond fast enough for most standard computer tasks. I know you tubers who are successful running their business on these machines. They edit and upload no problem with them. For not insanely heavy photo shop work (think less than I don't know? 50 layers?) and writing, editing, that sort of thing, these machines are great.

 

[Velli]

WWDC: macpro with m2 ultra/xtreme (2xm2 ultra) announcement (available fall 2022)
Later this year/fall: mac mini m2, MacBook Air m2(and old model
MacBook Pro with m2?)
2023:
Next year match event: Mac mini m2 pro, iMac m2
Next year wwdc: MacBook Pro m2 pro and m2 max.
Fall: Mac studio m2 max and m2 ultra .

I think we’ ll get a 2 year cycle with updates of the m-chips, with different mac form factors released throughout those 2 years.

Macpro will now be the first to get the new m2 based architecture, but will be last to be updated in the next product cycles, so in 2024 we’ ll get the next update for the macpro with m3 ultra/extreme.

No way the M2 will start at the top, and also no way it will come out before A16. People saying the Mac Pro will have M2 chips need to get real. Whatever Apple is going to do with Mac Pro, it will be M1 based. That’s the nature of “workhorse” chips, they are brute force versions of existing tech, not state-of-the-art tech. Apple may label them differently, but it will in essence be M1.

Keep in mind A15 is just an optimized A14, with no mind-blowing speed increase. Higher clock speed and better power efficiency, no major gains that would benefit the Mac significantly.

First next-gen chip will be A16, followed by M2 in the new Air, and then essentially rolling out over the next two years, just like we have just seen with A14/M1. Having iOS on a one year cycle and Mac on a two year cycle makes complete sense. And because of the nature of chip development, the simplest version of a given core generation - the iPhone version - will be ready first. Not the Mac Pro version.

 

[Velli]

I'm thinking the Mac Pro is gonna be an M2 Ultra product. Yes, it would mean going back on their word of completing the entire line within 2 years. But considering they updated components for the existing Intel Mac Pro alongside the Mac Studio, it would make sense to not have to rush it out just to meet some self imposed dead line.

Besides, the reviews are saying it, the Mac Studio definitely is fast for target audience. Hey, if you can keep and support your Intel Mac Pro a little longer, why not? June 2023 for a Mac Pro with 4 fused together M2 Ultra chips would be insane! On top of being based on the 4 NM would give it a significant reason to wait and a standout for the first generation of the M series. Also, it would be 5 years since the Intel Mac Pro was launched, providing a justifiable time for those who first bought it to consider upgrading if they so choose.

In some ways I can follow this. An M2 Pro and Max in the spring 2023 is a little early for Studio, but on the money for Macbook Pro. Followed by M2 Extreme in June 2023. I could see that, although it basically puts them in a one year cycle going forward from there, which I think is aggressive.

 

[James Godfrey]

Mac Pro in June perhaps?

Yeah I think that’s a given, but again that’s going to be a very niche product, which 99.9% of us won’t be buying… I think more general consumer friendly products are probably going to come during the summer without a doubt.

 

[ric22]

The current M1 MacBook Air is nearly perfect in design as it is- the wedge shape is comfortable to type on, much more so than the unergonomic Pros, the keyboard is good, there's no notch, the surround around the screen is black and not white (shudder), the speakers are ok, the screen looks great (without the edge shadow of the mini-led pros it looks better than their screens), and the battery life is brilliant.

The only drawback to the M1 Air is the webcam, which would have been abysmal 7 years ago. It is unbelievably, unusably, crap. Why does anyone want a new design? They've nailed it here. The new design you guys are discussing sounds like a car crash.

Actually, I'll add a second drawback, which could be easily remedied: repairability. Make the process of replacing the battery (which will need replacing if you keep the device for a few years) quick and easy, with no glue and a few screws, and don't solder the damn SSD! My God, that's an awful thing to do. When the RAM or something else inevitably dies, how are you supposed to get your files off the SSD? Even if you back up daily you could still lose a day's work. Those two "features" probably save Apple about $1 a Mac, and show contempt for their customers.

 

[EugW]

No way the M2 will start at the top, and also no way it will come out before A16. People saying the Mac Pro will have M2 chips need to get real. Whatever Apple is going to do with Mac Pro, it will be M1 based. That’s the nature of “workhorse” chips, they are brute force versions of existing tech, not state-of-the-art tech. Apple may label them differently, but it will in essence be M1.

1. Apple said that M1 Ultra is the last chip of the M1 family.

2. Some people including the guy who is porting Linux to M1 state that macOS and the M1 Ultra SoC cannot support a configuration with 2 x M1 Ultra in one machine.

So, all signs point to Mac Pro being M2 based, or else something entirely different.

 

[michaelsviews]

The current M1 MacBook Air is nearly perfect in design as it is- the wedge shape is comfortable to type on, much more so than the unergonomic Pros, the keyboard is good, there's no notch, the surround around the screen is black and not white (shudder), the speakers are ok, the screen looks great (without the edge shadow of the mini-led pros it looks better than their screens), and the battery life is brilliant.

The only drawback to the M1 Air is the webcam, which would have been abysmal 7 years ago. It is unbelievably, unusably, crap. Why does anyone want a new design? They've nailed it here. The new design you guys are discussing sounds like a car crash.

Actually, I'll add a second drawback, which could be easily remedied: repairability. Make the process of replacing the battery (which will need replacing if you keep the device for a few years) quick and easy, with no glue and a few screws, and don't solder the damn SSD! My God, that's an awful thing to do. When the RAM or something else inevitably dies, how are you supposed to get your files off the SSD? Even if you back up daily you could still lose a day's work. Those two "features" probably save Apple about $1 a Mac, and show contempt for their customers.

What are the chances that they'll change the design? Will they give it more ports and the better screen?
The old style / screen is still used by many, the screen is not the best but it works for allot of people. Just have to sit back and wait. When its released there will be the supply chain issues and come the holiday season shortages of this and that.

 

[ric22]

What are the chances that they'll change the design? Will they give it more ports and the better screen?
The old style / screen is still used by many, the screen is not the best but it works for allot of people. Just have to sit back and wait. When its released there will be the supply chain issues and come the holiday season shortages of this and that.

I can imagine them producing a thinner/flatter, more colourful/childish looking Air, with a white surround and a notch. Can't imagine we'll see any more ports, though, sadly!

For the price point, the screen remains excellent, I think. With the edge shadow issue of the 14 and 16" Pros, I'd rather have it to them.

 

[darngooddesign]

Personally I think the market for a giant Air is similar to the market for a 12" MacBook. It certainly exists, but it's probably not big enough for Apple to consider it a way to generate a lot of profit, at least in the context of the current product line.

Considering the 16" MBP is only $200 more than the 14", if the 16" Air were produced as part of the redesign it probably wouldn't cost Apple too much to consider doing. The 12" MacBook was different because it was a completely different laptop, and making a laptop smaller and thinner is much more expensive than making a larger laptop.

 

[darngooddesign]

No way the M2 will start at the top, and also no way it will come out before A16. People saying the Mac Pro will have M2 chips need to get real...

What if the A16 design is complete and Apple decides to announce it first as the M2 Ultra Duo or Quad MacPro at WWDC this summer.

 

[EugW]

Considering the 16" MBP is only $200 more than the 14", if the 16" Air were produced as part of the redesign it probably wouldn't cost Apple too much to consider doing. The 12" MacBook was different because it was a completely different laptop, and making a laptop smaller and thinner is much more expensive than making a larger laptop.

Actually that is not correct. The 12" MacBook wouldn't cost more to make. It would cost less if spec'd similarly. Remember, these are not tiny devices where miniaturization is important. The 12" requires less materials, less battery, and less screen, so overall cost is less. And in fact, if were going to talk about really small devices, the iPhone 12 mini cost less to make than the iPhone 12 too for the same reasons.

The issue here is that the 16" Air would cannibalize MBP sales more than a 12" MacBook would. The problem with the 12" MacBook is that the market is small but the good news is it would not cannibalize MacBook Pro sales. IMO the market for a 16" might be a bit bigger, but it would be at the expense of the MacBook Pro.

 

[tweaknmod]

Yes, I really think Apple will continue to keep the "need to pay up to get large size" philosophy, and keep the 15/16" laptop size only for the MBP line-up. A larger MBA might "sell like hotcakes", but it would also cannibalize potential 16" MBP buyers.

I respectfully disagree. Not trying rot be argumentative here, I would just like to lay out my thinking more clearly than my earlier post. I also just enjoy respectful debate

There are, no doubt, those who can afford to pick up a base 16" MBP over a MBA for the screen alone, but I would think those people are in the minority.

Base MBA = $1,299.00 CAD
Base MBP 16" = $3,149.00 CAD
Difference = $1,850.00 CAD <- How many people, outside of the tech world (by that I mean people like us who visit tech forums regularly) would be happy with that price difference for the sake of a bigger screen?

Even assuming Apple would increase the price of any new MBA (or whatever they call it), the jump in price would be about double. The average consumer who wants to use spreadsheets, documents, web browsing, and emails would be hard pressed to swallow that pill.

That said, ask those same people if they would be interested in an Apple laptop that's around as light in weight, but has a larger screen. I'm betting many would show interest - but their interest would only go so far, when considering price.

Again, I am sure there are many who can afford that jump; there are even more people who can't really afford it, but would get it on credit 'cause they love tech so much.

Let's say the new MBA 13" is $1,500.00 CAD, and a 15/16" model is $2,000.00 CAD, then it's still over $1,000.000 CAD cheaper than getting a heavier MBP 16".

For Apple, the calculation might look something like:

M = People who want an Apple laptop with a bigger screen, can afford, and want, a 16" MBP.
S = People who want an Apple laptop with a bigger screen, can afford a 16" MBP, and are willing to compromise on price and weight.
E = People who want an Apple laptop with a bigger screen, and can afford a 16" MBP but want thin and light.
P = People who want an Apple laptop with a bigger screen, can't afford a 16" MBP, but could afford around $500 more.
R = People who want an Apple laptop with a bigger screen, but are unwilling to pay over $1k more for a few inches.

If the below is true, then they would not be cannibalizing their 16" MBPs.
M + S < E + P + R

Now, I completely understand that it's far more complicated than this - and that I'm no math wizard - but I still think the number of people who want a larger laptop for carrying around the house, on campus, or to and from work, is significant. And of those people, I think the number who are willing/able/interested in a MBP 16" is far less than half.

P.S. Please remember this is all pure speculation and fun debate... and more than a little of me justifying my hope for a 16" MBA this year...

Edit: clarity

 

[Marshall73]

?? Aside from the screen, it has the same specs as the mini.

Exactly. And it’s not getting an M1 Pro either 😂

 

[EugW]

What if the A16 design is complete and Apple decides to announce it first as the M2 Ultra Duo or Quad MacPro at WWDC this summer.

What people forget is that Apple is perfectly capable of doing more than one thing at a time. What people also forget is that just because Apple has done something one way before doesn't mean they will necessarily do it the same way going forward.

Will the Mac Pro be introduced in 2022, with a non-M1-based SoC? I dunno for sure, but I'm guessing yes, perhaps even at WWDC, based on the other factors. Those other factors include the fact that Apple said the transition will take two years (from mid to late 2020, Apple said that there are no more M1 series chips, and others in the know said that for technical design reasons you can't put two M1 Ultras in the same machine. This is despite the fact that no other M2 based machines are available yet, or that A16 iPhones aren't out yet either.

Also, there is no guarantee that the Mac Pro SoC would be built on A16 anyway. While M1 is largely based on A14 cores, it's possible the Mac Pro is based on A15 cores instead of A16.

Exactly. And it’s not getting an M1 Pro either 😂

Nice. Great deflection, to avoid addressing the actual point made.

 

[SactoGuy18]

I have this feeling that the M2 SoC will be based on the A16 SoC for the iPhone 14 Pro models. Taht's why we won't see the MacBook Air replacement until October 2022.

 

[darngooddesign]

What people forget is that Apple is perfectly capable of doing more than one thing at a time. What people also forget is that just because Apple has done something one way before doesn't mean they will necessarily do it the same way going forward.

Will the Mac Pro be introduced in 2022, with a non-M1-based SoC? I dunno for sure, but I'm guessing yes, perhaps even at WWDC, based on the other factors. Those other factors include the fact that Apple said the transition will take two years (from mid to late 2020, Apple said that there are no more M1 series chips, and others in the know said that for technical design reasons you can't put two M1 Ultras in the same machine. This is despite the fact that no other M2 based machines are available yet, or that A16 iPhones aren't out yet either.

Also, there is no guarantee that the Mac Pro SoC would be built on A16 anyway. While M1 is largely based on A14 cores, it's possible the Mac Pro is based on A15 cores instead of A16.

Exactly. I think Apple knows it would be dumb to release an M1-based MacPro only to have the M2 Mac Mini have better single-core scores.

 

[Eggtastic]

I might just have to bite the bullet and pick up a base 14" mbp. I currently have a rMB and am looking at a significant upgrade if I go this route. I considered a 13 mbp M1 as it is cheaper but looking to future proof (I did mention I liked the touch bar but after more thought it seems it will get less support as the years go by).

 

[ric22]

Exactly. I think Apple knows it would be dumb to release an M1-based MacPro only to have the M2 Mac Mini have better single-core scores.

In the same way Intel would never create a line of workstation chips called Xeon with larger core counts, but which often have slower single core speeds than their consumer chips.... 🧐 Hold on a minute, I think they've actually done that! 😱

 

[boak]

Exactly. I think Apple knows it would be dumb to release an M1-based MacPro only to have the M2 Mac Mini have better single-core scores.

Not dumb at all. See iPad Pro vs iPad Air chips lol

Mac Pro users' workloads typically are highly parallelizable, multi-core performance trumps single-core in most cases.

 

[Tagbert]

The current M1 MacBook Air is nearly perfect in design as it is- the wedge shape is comfortable to type on, much more so than the unergonomic Pros, the keyboard is good, there's no notch, the surround around the screen is black and not white (shudder), the speakers are ok, the screen looks great (without the edge shadow of the mini-led pros it looks better than their screens), and the battery life is brilliant.

The only drawback to the M1 Air is the webcam, which would have been abysmal 7 years ago. It is unbelievably, unusably, crap. Why does anyone want a new design? They've nailed it here. The new design you guys are discussing sounds like a car crash.

Actually, I'll add a second drawback, which could be easily remedied: repairability. Make the process of replacing the battery (which will need replacing if you keep the device for a few years) quick and easy, with no glue and a few screws, and don't solder the damn SSD! My God, that's an awful thing to do. When the RAM or something else inevitably dies, how are you supposed to get your files off the SSD? Even if you back up daily you could still lose a day's work. Those two "features" probably save Apple about $1 a Mac, and show contempt for their customers.

The wedge shape is the less ergonomic shape for a keyboard. A keyboard that tilts up will cause your wrists to bend and that can lead to RSI problems. A flat keyboard is the better choice for ergonomics. If you like the wedge shape that is fine, but don’t use ergonomics as the excuse.