Gurman: Refreshed High-End MacBook Pro and Mac Mini With M3 Chips to Launch Next Year

[CWallace]

^^^

And when you consider how popular the MacBook Air is (which is why it is upgraded every generation), demand for M3 production will be high from launch so whatever M3s they can make, will all be earmarked for the Air first, which leaves whatever is left over for the MacBook Pro 13.3" and the iMac 24".

 

[icanhazapple]

If any M3 series Mac is released in 2023, I’ll be pleasantly surprised.

I’m not expecting M3 to be manufactured on TSMC N3B, but on N3E instead. N3E is coming this fall, but it may be too late for a release of M3 Macs this fall.

That's not correct. Apple is essentially saving TSMC's investment in N3B - otherwise the initial N3 family tooling would have been a total waste/disaster. Everyone else in the industry (AMD, Nvidia, Qualcomm, etc) is waiting for N3E, because its cheaper.

Apple will eventually release N3E products as well (starting in Fall 2024 with A18, 2025 for M4), but TSMC has given them a decent deal on N3B wafer pricing, because without it, N3B is basically irrelevant and would have yielded a financial loss for TSMC.

N3B Products -
iPhone 15 Pro + Max (September 2023)
Apple iMac (October 2023) + Macbook Air (October 2023) + Macbook 14/16 Pro (early 2024)
Mac Mini (Mid/Late 2024)
Mac Studio / Pro (Mid/Late 2024)
iPhone 16 - (September 2024)

N3E Products -
iPhone 16 Pro + Max (September 2024)
Apple iMac (early 2025) + Macbook Air (early 2025) + Macbook 14/16 Pro (Summer/Fall 2025)
Mac Mini (Late 2025 or early 2026)
Mac Studio / Pro (Mid/Late 2025 or early 2026)


N3B uses 26 EUV layers while N3E uses 19, from what I recall. Google Dylan Patel / Semi Analysis, he has done all the work on this.

 

[Lounge vibes 05]

No love for the Mini for MANY years, how things have changed! Nice Apple! Bring it back with a faster SSD.

For many years? It was literally updated in January.

 

[SW3029]

Apple is also releasing a 15" MacBook Air with an M3 chip in November. They will keep the M2 15MBA on sale at its current price point and the M3 version will start at $200 more.

 

[Surrylic]

I’m pretty sure they were accounting for that in their enthusiastic “how things have changed!” comment.

Exactly lol. Amazing how many people in this thread saw the original comment as a complaint when it was more of a celebration.

 

[Siliconguy]

For many years? It was literally updated in January.

He means historically. The 2014 mini was unchanged for 4 full years. Even worse, the 2012 mini had a quad-core option, but the 2014 did not. Even worse yet, the base 2014 mini had a pathetic 1.4 GHz processor while the 2012 started at 2.5 GHz.

That and work requirements forced me to go to Windows for several wretched years. Linux wasn't quite there yet.

 

[Kylo83]

They need to remove that notch I hate it in my MacBook Pro

 

[CyclingHermit]

Quick question - what's the expected refresh interval for Mac Studio? Yearly or every two years? Or in other words, is next MacStudio using M3s be expected more likely in 2024 or 2025?

 

[Will Co]

I’ve seen his videos and nowhere do I recall him saying that. He said the performances gains might be somewhat disappointing and not as high as earlier expected, but they could still be respectable. Thats far from saying they’d be lousy. He thinks it’s more likely M3 Macs won’t be until 2024, but he doesn’t rule out them coming earlier.

Maybe I've misunderstood your comment, but you seem to be conflating yield and performance. They're not the same thing. Yield is the number of good chips vs bad chips produced from a line, usually expressed as a %. If yield is low, the faulty chips are often discarded/recycled back into production, depending on fault, and this has two effects: overall per-unit cost of the chips increases, line efficiency decreases, so there can be insufficient devices to meet demand.

 

[NewUsername]

It would be weird to sell the M3 Mac mini alongside the M2 Pro Mac mini.

If Apple does launch M3 Macs later this year, it will be the iMac, MacBook Air and, if they don’t finally discontinue it, the 13" MacBook Pro.

 

[CWallace]

Quick question - what's the expected refresh interval for Mac Studio? Yearly or every two years? Or in other words, is next MacStudio using M3s be expected more likely in 2024 or 2025?

My guess is the Mac Studio and Mac Pro will be on a generational upgrade cycle (so they will get each generation of Max and Ultra SoCs), but they will be the last models updated each generation.

Right now it looks like the iMac is only on the "every other generation" cycle, but even that might have been a one-time fluke due to COVID and supply chain issues considering...

 

[CarAnalogy]

Anyone know if Gurman has success in the lottery? His predictions blow my mind.

Seems to take the same strategy everyone does of playing the same numbers until they become right.

 

[CarAnalogy]

They can take their time. In no rush for my M1 Pro MacBook to be considered old.

 

[CyclingHermit]

My guess is the Mac Studio and Mac Pro will be on a generational upgrade cycle (so they will get each generation of Max and Ultra SoCs), but they will be the last models updated each generation.

Thanks. So "late", irrespective of the exact year, which tells me another 12 months at least. I'm wondering whether to keep using Lightroom on my win10 / older Ryzen machine for another year, or switch to MacStudio. From what I've read, Lightroom classic is working like a dream on the Mac + M2 Ultra, so probably it would already be a significant upgrade…

 

[CWallace]

They can take their time. In no rush for my M1 Pro MacBook to be considered old.

It is time to replace my 2020 Intel iMac 5K and while I was considering buying a Mac Studio, I am going to give it a go with my M1 Pro 14" MacBook Pro because I think it will work for me and it saves me $2000.

 

[EugW]

That's not correct.

Based on what? Besides TSMC, nobody has made any formal announcements as to what N3B will be used for. And what TSMC said was that N3B will be used for smart phone and HPC chips, with nothing about PCs or tablets.

OTOH, there have been some rumours that Macs will wait for N3E.

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Gurman claims new M3 Macs will come in the fall, but that doesn't jive with the above rumours, and I personally don't believe they will be based off N3B either as there isn't really a great advantage for Apple to use it for Macs, esp. since these Macs get made for several years.. So that leaves N4P, which I don't think the M3 Macs will use either.

Apple is essentially saving TSMC's investment in N3B - otherwise the initial N3 family tooling would have been a total waste/disaster. Everyone else in the industry (AMD, Nvidia, Qualcomm, etc) is waiting for N3E, because its cheaper.

Apple will eventually release N3E products as well (starting in Fall 2024 with A18, 2025 for M4), but TSMC has given them a decent deal on N3B wafer pricing, because without it, N3B is basically irrelevant and would have yielded a financial loss for TSMC.

N3B Products -
iPhone 15 Pro + Max (September 2023)
Apple iMac (October 2023) + Macbook Air (October 2023) + Macbook 14/16 Pro (early 2024)
Mac Mini (Mid/Late 2024)
Mac Studio / Pro (Mid/Late 2024)
iPhone 16 - (September 2024)

N3E Products -
iPhone 16 Pro + Max (September 2024)
Apple iMac (early 2025) + Macbook Air (early 2025) + Macbook 14/16 Pro (Summer/Fall 2025)
Mac Mini (Late 2025 or early 2026)
Mac Studio / Pro (Mid/Late 2025 or early 2026)


N3B uses 26 EUV layers while N3E uses 19, from what I recall. Google Dylan Patel / Semi Analysis, he has done all the work on this.

N3E being cheaper makes sense for Macs, but it isn't just cheaper. It's also better. It also arrives in the fall in volume, which means Apple will begin receiving N3E chips in late 2023, with new Mac releases in early 2024.

The way I envision it:

N3B: A17 - iPhone 15 Pro in 2023, early 2024

N3E: A17 - iPhone 15 Pro in 2024, iPhone 16, iPads
N3E: A18 - iPhone 16 Pro, iPads
N3E: M3 series - Macs, iPads

N3B is basically just used to cover the initial batch of iPhones, and after that it is killed off.

I could very well be wrong, but I'll believe it when I see it. I'm just don't think people should count on new M3 Macs in fall 2023. It could happen, but I'm not at all optimistic.

Maybe I've misunderstood your comment, but you seem to be conflating yield and performance. They're not the same thing. Yield is the number of good chips vs bad chips produced from a line, usually expressed as a %. If yield is low, the faulty chips are often discarded/recycled back into production, depending on fault, and this has two effects: overall per-unit cost of the chips increases, line efficiency decreases, so there can be insufficient devices to meet demand.

Yeah but you can mitigate yield issues to a certain extent by decreasing required performance thresholds. So it can affect performance in that regard.

 

[Abazigal]

If the vision pro due next year is getting the M2 chip, then we really can’t expect the M3 before April or June 2024. It’s not a difficult prediction to make.

 

[ikramerica]

I’m with you, I’d love to know how many people are actually picking up the 13” MBP w/Touchbar. Apple was pretty quick to get rid of the “mini” iPhone because of sales. Is this laptop really selling that many, or does it actually fill a particular segment of customers that it’s worth keeping around?

As some using a mini to type this and someone who has used 13” pro laptops in the past, neither has much of a place but the 13” MBP is at least marginally useful. The mini is just a constant compromise for the sake of size.

 

[ikramerica]

They need to remove that notch I hate it in my MacBook Pro

It doesn’t bother me much in the MBP because I mostly use it as the second monitor to the larger attached screen, and on the road it’s not a big deal.

But phone notch sucks mucho.

 

[CWallace]

Gurman claims new M3 Macs will come in the fall, but that doesn't jive with the above rumours, and I personally don't believe they will be based off N3B either as there isn't really a great advantage for Apple to use it for Macs, esp. since these Macs get made for several years.

Apple can easily move M3 production from N3B to N3E once N3E is fully ready and available.

 

[EugW]

Apple can easily move M3 production from N3B to N3E once N3E is fully ready and available.

Not really. N3B and N3E are not design compatible. It's very expensive to move from N3B to N3E. Doing that makes perfect sense for the A series chips which ship in uber high volumes and which have to meet specific yearly deadlines, but it makes much less sense for the much lower volume M series chips especially considering they have no fixed deadlines to meet.

 

[CWallace]

Fair enough. Then I guess it will be N3E for M3.

 

[deconstruct60]

The Phoenix, AZ TSMC fabrication plant lacks qualified installers, so TSMC stated the plant will not come on line in 2024 and is hoping for 2025.

That may significantly shift Apple's plans because if the chips are not in the pipeline, electronic devices don't get build or sold. Remember the huge parking lots of cars built but lacked key chips. I have no clue as to where those partially built vehicles are now.

Extremely unlikely that is true. The AZ plant was only going to make trailing edge fab process dies. It was never scheduled to make N3 in 2025 or 2025 in the first place. So the slide in the production timeline really does nothing for Apple's leading edge wafer purchases. Nothing.

The plant was set to make N4. That best match ability to the M-series would be making more M2's; not M3's (using N4 eqipment to make N5 stuff).. Most likely it was going to get tasked with making 'hand me down' SoCs so things like the "n-1" iPhone 15 ( the non-Pro models this year should pick up the older A16 which is N4) in 2025 and/or one of the lower end iPads that consumes A-series after it drops out of the lead iPhone models.

There is a new Watch SoC coming this Fall. Pretty good chance it will be N4 (to control costs ). That too will be dribbled into other products over time ( HomePod ) and over long term good match to the AZ plant's output.

The leading edge iPhones and Macs were quite unlikely going to get serviced by that AZ plant ( barring something like a China invasion of Taiwan where Apple and TSMC just didn't have any choice. ). It is for 'older' and lower volume products.

I am not holding my breath for M3 in the non-iPhone product line this year. It will be interesting to watch and see if the next generation iPhones actually come out on the usual time.

TSMC N3 or an Apple M3? The Apple M3 wasn't going into any iPhone product ever. So no happening this year isn't saying much. The M3 going into the iMac on its 25th anniversary is entirely plausible. If Apple built a stockpile of A17 dies from March to August it wouldn't be a high hurdle at all to throw a relative small number of wafers at getting M3's for the iMac. it is far , far , far from being the highest volume selling Mac at this point. The context is completely different from 25 years ago.

For Apple to trot almost 3 YEARS with no iMac update is ridiculous. Pretty good chance they skipped doing a M2 version of the iMac so that they could sprinkle "special sauce' on the iMac in its anniverary year. Which all went a bit sideways when TSMC N3 rolled out a bit more bumpy than planned.

But the spin that yield are so terrible that Apple can barely cobble together any A17's for iPhone launch are likely wrong. If there is an iPhone shortage it is likely something other than the SoCs. Even at reduced yields N3B has been in HVM far too long not to have something more than substantive at this point for a relatively small die like the A17 probably is.

 

[EugW]

Besides TSMC, nobody has made any formal announcements as to what N3B will be used for. And what TSMC said was that N3B will be used for smart phone and HPC chips, with nothing about PCs or tablets.

Hmmm... I will have to admit, I did not understand the nuance from TSMC's statement here.

After some investigation, I have learned that TSMC's term "HPC" doesn't actually mean high performance computing. It's just a vague catch all term can refer to anything that isn't specifically smartphone, communications, or automotive. So it could very well be chips that go into PCs or tablets, although the term is too vague for us to know one way or another.

Hmmm...

 

[anthogag]

Mac mini is the perfect device to be one of the 1st for new chips.