Gurman: Refreshed High-End MacBook Pro and Mac Mini With M3 Chips to Launch Next Year

[MoXoM]

Exactly lol. Amazing how many people in this thread saw the original comment as a complaint when it was more of a celebration.

Yeah I was confused as to why the comment was seen as negative…

 

[EugW]

If TSMC's statement is literally true, actually it says quite the opposite. Making N3 class chips isn't like making microwave popcorn. One of the 'problems' that most customers don't like about N3B is that it takes about 4 months to make. (**) N3E is incrementally better (~3months. ) . However, both are worse than the old N5-family ( that includes N4).

if N3E high volume production doesn't actually start until October (Q4) , then it will be about about January until actually could accumulate any useful substantive inventory of working packages for a substantive demand surge launch.

If TSMC means that it wasn't 'production start' , but that they would recognizing N3E revenue (i.e., for delivered working chips) then that would make it viable. TSMC has said for almost two years that N3E was going to come about 1 year after N3 (N3B) went into high volume. [ There was some statements that N3E was going very well can maybe less than a year; maybe substantively ramp in Q3 sometime. ]

Yes, I was thinking 3 months, but 4 months could still mean Macs on store shelves in spring 2024. Supply chain analysts have stated that it takes about 3 months from chip availability to laptop retail availability. January plus 3 months = April, and spring ends in June.

As for N3B, TSMC had already stated that they began volume production in 2022 Q4. However, that's presumably for A17, a chip which has a fixed release date of September/October 2023, for a product that ships much, much, much higher volumes.

The M3 MBA makes really very little sense since they just did the MBA 15". If the Mini is 'hobbled' by being coupled to the Mn Pro why wouldn't the MBA 13" get hobbled by being coupled to the MBA 15" ???? They could do either decoupled if really wanted to, but it would be awkward.

Because the MBA 15" is a new separate product and the MBA 13" is a very high volume seller. The Mac mini isn't a high volume seller so they can afford to wait with it if desired. But yes, they could theoretically stagger those releases too if they wanted.

A roll out on M3 of iMac in Oct/Nov , (then wait a gap time) MBP 13", , then (wait a gap time ) finally MBA 13" ( and maybe by that time iPad Pro ) would be trackable on N3B and not so track

The M2 MBP 13" and MBA 13" didn't actually roll out at exactly the same time either. Apple could do the same thing here. Do lower volumes first and build to production.

For all we know, Apple could release an M2 iMac. 🤪

Clamoring for N3E is really cheerleading for products not to ship in substantive volume in 2023. Might get some relatively (to overall Mac volumes) product out the door , but it would be risky.

It's not about clamouring for N3E. It's about managing expectations. New M3 Macs in October just seems really optimistic.

 

[Warped9]

I think they’ll pop an M2 in the iMac and that'll be it until mid / late next year.

No. It’s been said repeatedly the iMac is not getting M2. If it was it could have been updated by now, but it didn’t happen. And M3 in iMac has been reported repeatedly.

 

[EugW]

No. It’s been said repeatedly the iMac is not getting M2. If it was it could have been updated by now, but it didn’t happen. And M3 in iMac has been reported repeatedly.

Like everything else in these threads, until we see otherwise, they're all just rumours. I mean it was reported for years including from even Apple that the Mac Pro would come within 2 years, in 2022. It didn't.

 

[multipasser]

Great the development. But why not make a Pro mac studio with like 8 core or 16 core M1's, as they are now 'cheap' to produce. Give us PRO back!

 

[AppleTO]

I’m pretty sure they were accounting for that in their enthusiastic “how things have changed!” comment.

Ah, I definitely misinterpreted that comment.

 

[Warped9]

Like everything else in these threads, until we see otherwise, they're all just rumours. I mean it was reported for years including from even Apple that the Mac Pro would come within 2 years, in 2022. It didn't.

Then where are the rumours of M2 in iMac? We might have seen that maybe once quite sometime ago and then never again.

 

[EugW]

Then where are the rumours of M2 in iMac? We might have seen that maybe once quite sometime ago and then never again.

Don't mistake Mark Gurman's repeats of the same rumour and getting repeated by other sites as multiple rumour sources.

And don't forget, this is the same guy that said we were getting a 7K pro display in 2022 from Apple.

 

[sleven]

As some using a mini to type this and someone who has used 13” pro laptops in the past, neither has much of a place but the 13” MBP is at least marginally useful. The mini is just a constant compromise for the sake of size.

I agree with your assessment. I too, have a 13 mini. I appreciate the size in my pocket, but absolutely am jealous of my wife’s battery life and typing experience - she has a 13.

 

[poematik13]

My 2019 16" is still going strong, was gonna upgrade to the 2023's this year but this thing still handles all my editing projects without any lag. Battery life could be better though, and for some reason after upgrading macOS to 12.X the integrated GPU just lags really hard doing basic stuff like opening and closing windows etc. So Im basically running the AMD gpu 24/7

 

[staypuftforums]

Intel and AMD are going to eat Apple’s lunch.

You simply can’t put off upgrading your processors to every 2 years.

Apple is already learning this the hard way.

The M3 Mini is going to be so far behind the pack by late 2024, it will be ridiculous.

 

[zakarhino]

My reaction when Gurman says an Apple product will be updated next year as per its usual yearly upgrade cycle

 

[Warped9]

I am going to seriously laugh my ass off if we get M3 Macs by the end of the year.

 

[Sir_Macs_A_Lot]

^^^

And when you consider how popular the MacBook Air is (which is why it is upgraded every generation), demand for M3 production will be high from launch so whatever M3s they can make, will all be earmarked for the Air first, which leaves whatever is left over for the MacBook Pro 13.3" and the iMac 24".

MacBook Air would be the most popular selling Mac if it weren't for the budget priced 13" MacBook Pro. It would seem logical that Apple would want to upgrade the MBA first with the M3 (hopefully by the end of 2023), then upgrade the MBP with the M3 Pro chip next year.

 

[megascott]

Maybe I’m way off, but I just can’t see them releasing an M3 13-inch MacBook Air and not refreshing the 15-inch MacBook Air. And the 15 JUST came out so I don’t see that being refreshed any time soon. But I also don’t see them only refreshing the 13-inch MacBook Pro (which, by most accounts, no one really wants) without refreshing the Air. So….no, I don’t think any M3 laptops are coming this year. Maybe the iMac because that’s so far behind.

 

[David1964]

I’m ready for a M3 16” MacBook Pro but I would like it to be in different colors besides silver and space gray, please.

Not gonna happen on a Pro model.

 

[yeahnope]

MacBook Pro M1->M2->M3 refreshes being just percentage point performance gains means I'll be sticking with my M1 Pro for quite some time. They will need some new form or functionality (Face ID in the screen notch? Touch screen? Etc?) to get me to upgrade.

 

[hovscorpion12]

I'm 100% fully expecting the M3 to be announced in October. Released with the 13" M3 Air/ 13" M3 Macbook Pro.

As for iMac's, Mac Mini or the 14/16" Macbook Pros I see them getting a scattered release in 2024.

 

[Mr. Dee]

Maybe I’m way off, but I just can’t see them releasing an M3 13-inch MacBook Air and not refreshing the 15-inch MacBook Air. And the 15 JUST came out so I don’t see that being refreshed any time soon. But I also don’t see them only refreshing the 13-inch MacBook Pro (which, by most accounts, no one really wants) without refreshing the Air. So….no, I don’t think any M3 laptops are coming this year. Maybe the iMac because that’s so far behind.

Because the 13 inch MacBook Air and Pro would be over a year since they launched with M2, they could first be updated to M3 along with the iMac. The 15 inch Air, Mac Mini and iPad Pro's with M3 and refreshed colors for iPhone in spring.

Apple could then update the MacBook Pro's in October with M3 Pro/Max. The 15 inch Air is not really about the SoC, its more about the screen more than anything. If performance is what you are after, Apple has the MacBook Pro for that. Apple also doesn't care, if they can get you to trade in an M2 15 inch Air for the M3 13 inch Air, they will happily accept it to resell it on the refurbish store for a tidy profit.

 

[hovscorpion12]

MacBook Pro M1->M2->M3 refreshes being just percentage point performance gains means I'll be sticking with my M1 Pro for quite some time. They will need some new form or functionality (Face ID in the screen notch? Touch screen? Etc?) to get me to upgrade.

As far as the M3 Pro/M3 Max, I'm expecting the 14"/16" Macbook Pro's to reach full mobile workstation status.

- 3.7Ghz CPU Clock rate.
- Up to 16 Core CPU on M3 Max. [8 Performance/8 Efficiency]
- Up to 60 Core GPU on M3 Max.
- Up to 128GB RAM on M3 Max
- Four ProRes Encoders/Decoders on M3 Max.
- Four Video encode engines on M3 Max.

 

[Bobbuilds69]

No ****, ain’t it obvious?

 

[SFjohn]

I’m with you, I’d love to know how many people are actually picking up the 13” MBP w/Touchbar. Apple was pretty quick to get rid of the “mini” iPhone because of sales. Is this laptop really selling that many, or does it actually fill a particular segment of customers that it’s worth keeping around?

I bought an M2 13” MBP w/TouchBar, because of the design and the TouchBar and I love it. It’s perfect.

 

[name99]

He also noted that the M2 Mac mini launched more than two years after the M1 version was introduced, suggesting that Apple does not see the Mac mini as a device that requires annual refreshes.

I think his analysis is wrong.
The issue is not that Mac mini is considered a "slow updater", it's the schedule for the Pro (and Max/Ultra).
The basic M3 is a fairly easy mod to the A17. But the Max/Ultra are still at the point where a lot of new design is happening to improve scalability along every dimension. The Pro is somewhat hostage to that insofar as it's basically a Max design stripped of some stuff.

Which all means that it's easy enough to ship M3 machines (like MBA and iMac) early, but the schedule for the most advanced machines is still somewhat hard to predict (even by Apple) as development remains on-going. In a sense this will probably improve after M3 as all the significant pain points related to scalability based on two dies now seem to be have been addressed. Of course that likely means a four-die machine, a discovery of new pain points driven by 4 dies, so also a delay in the M4 Pro/Max/Ultra! So it always goes with the highest end.

The important point is that people now expect (and lots of people want to buy) a Pro-based mini, hell that's what I bought (and am very happy with).
Apple can't just announce an M3 based mini without a matching Pro mini; it will look dumb and disorganized.

 

[MacMikePro]

It makes sense, Apple is going to want to refresh the entire Mac mini line at the same time as it would be weird to sell an M3 Mac mini and a more expensive M2 Pro Mac mini at the same time. Therefore the M3 Mac mini needs to wait for the introduction of the M3 Pro.

 

[name99]

Max Tech said that the yield on M3 chips is lousy so that to make enough iPhone chips there won't be any 2023 Macs with M3.

And TSMC have said, two days ago, in an official earnings call, that everything is going as planned, and that N3 will make up a non-negligible fraction of revenue next year.

So we can trust random internet publications with terrible track records, or the people who actually run the company. Decisions, decisions...