I'm typically fine going with 1st generation Apple products, but I'm really on the fence about the Watch. I will probably end up getting one of the cheaper models because I'm impulsive about this stuff, but I can't help but think even more than the iPad to iPad 2, this is going to be a product that gets dramatically better when the next generation hits. That really makes some of these price points hard to stomach.
I could also see this going the way of the iPhone where they start the price high and then bring it down quickly, at least on the non-Edition models. As nice as it looks and as great as the design is, I still believe that $349 as a starting point is going to be a very tough sale to majority of iPhone users. Unless they debut some more killer functionality in the coming months or show off exciting 3rd party apps, I think initial sales will be descent with all the hardcore Apple nerds sweeping this up, but I wouldn't be shocked to see it drop fast after that until a price drop.
And for the record, I'm generally pretty optimistic about the debut of Apple products, and I'm generally a day-one early adopter. Be it new Macs, the iPod, iPhone, Apple TV, and the iPad, I've had positive reactions to all the launches and always saw the potential and the benefits. I'm not saying I don't see the benefits of the Watch, and I am somewhat excited, but it's a significantly more tempered excitement when compared to past new products, and again, I'm skeptical for the first time about anything close to mass adoption at these price points.
I'd love to see Watch succeed, and I think there's a ton of potential for that to happen over time, but I think it's going to take another generation or two, better battery life, and a $199 price point before this thing really takes off.
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Not a chance. Mechanical watch makers--even the really high end ones--release new designs with new technology on a regular basis. There's not a chance that Apple won't do the same thing.
This is an interesting product line because it makes the upgrade cycle less relevant. Watch wearers generally have more than one watch. Jewelry wearers have more than one piece of jewelry. It's entirely likely that many people will purchase multiple

Watches.
As for keeping them useful over time? There are a few options.
It does appear that Apple has placed all of the computer components inside a single sealed chip. It's entirely possible that they anticipate people wanting to upgrade the internal components of their watches. As such, they likely have a plan in place for those chips to be upgradable at Apple stores--for a fee of course.
This isn't without precedent. High end (and low-mid grade) watch owners often take them to watchmakers/repair facilities to have parts replaced, upgraded or maintained. It's a perfectly normal and expected part of owning a quality watch.
My guess though, is that Apple isn't particularly concerned with the

Watch being a family heirloom. I haven't worn a watch in 15 years. People younger than me probably never have. The watch as an heirloom isn't something that is going to happen anymore.
Apple is paying homage to mechanical watch design in its new product, but make no mistake, the watch is dead and gone. Outside of watch enthusiasts, no one buys them. To Apple, this is a new product entirely.
This would be interesting, but I find it extremely unlikely considering we're talking about Apple here. And given that future upgrades will likely have as much to do with sensors as battery tech and processing, I have to imagine that we'll see the body style change rather quickly, and again, knowing Apple, no doubt it will get thinner as soon as they can. They'll likely make it thinner before they improve the battery life for that matter, though in this case, I'd be okay with it. I'd rather have a smaller watch that I have to charge everyday than a thick watch I only have to charge every two days. I'm fine with that.
I'd love a slightly thicker iPhone though with better battery life...
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That's not the point.
The point is that today people buy
- jewelry-like things (which they assume they'll use forever)
- technology type things (where most of the cost of the more expensive version translates into higher capabilities).
The proper analogy here is to buying something like a $2000 haute couture dress that will be out of fashion next year. There ARE, of course, people who buy such items, but they know what they are getting into.
Apple is treading in dangerous waters here, psychologically. On the one hand they are promising the "eternal value you can pass on to your grandkids" crap that jewelers use to sell these expensive watches; on the other hand "eternal value"is NOT what they are delivering.
Exactly. This is very much where my concerns lie, and why I expected/hoped for a $99-199 sensor-heavy band more than something that's more like jewelry. Don't get me wrong, I think the Watch is gorgeous, and I'm sure it'll be cool, and I'm pretty sure I'll be buying one the day they're available. But I know for certain I'll be swapping it out for a next-gen model because there's no way this product won't improve dramatically with time, and I get all that I accept it. As you said, I know what I'm getting into.
Most people don't, and that's why I don't think this is going to go over well at first. Time will tell, but again, this is the first time I've been really skeptical about an Apple launch, and as someone who tends to be optimistic, that worries me.