How difficult will it be for me to get the new phone on release day?

[akdj]

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You're totally within your rights to disagree, and have your own opinion, and to be honest, I respect that.

But, I disagree with you. I am confident in my opinons, the sales will not be what everyone is hoping for, and from that, the stock will drop.

Will it be the next day? Nah... but a year from now? Yes sir.

In just one years time, the entire mobile market has changed.

I think your thinking is a bit short sited. The mobile market has actually changed in the last 5 years...not just one. Samsung has finally found a product that is selling well (SIII @ 20mil and GNote @ 10mil)...but Windows has yet to make any sort of dent. In my opinion, it will still take them well over a 'year' to impact the market, solely because of the transition to W8 in the desktop/laptop OS arena. From there, the ability to use the Metro phones with your PC MAY impact sales...but they've not proven that to be the case yet. We'll see what Google has up their sleeve with their acquisitions, but IMHO, Amazon is poised to offer up an intriguing product (Like Apple/iOS) because of it's marketplace offerings---everything from media to groceries. That's the one company I believe could 'change the mobile market' again...but NOT in it's entirety. The iPhone has already done this.

Samsung is catching on with some of their new products...but there are over 7 billion people on this earth. A massive consumer base and plenty of room for several companies to do well. I mentioned it earlier, I'm a fan of both Android and iOS...but it's taken me til this year and several 'Droid devices to finally be secure and happy with my hardware (Galaxy Note).

You're also forgetting the MASSIVE amount of folks that did NOT upgrade to the 4s after 18 months between model releases. We are a mixed family ourselves. My wife hung on to her '4' and I upgraded to the '4s' on release day. My wife's finger is on the trigger to update to the '5'. I will hold out (first time ever). There are plenty of folk in my circle of friends that are still rockin' the 3gs! Lots and lots of potential clients from Android/Windows/BB, etc are keeping their eye on this release. It's going to be huge..>I'm sorry, you ARE entitled to your opinion and this IS a discussion board...but have you ever wondered why you seem to 'Think different' than the analysts, consumers, and the majority of one of---if not THE biggest Mac Geek/Fan board in the world?

You have to look at the market saturation of mobile phones, my findings are that the overwhelming majority of iPhone 5 purchases are going to not come from new customers, but instead, return customers.

This is not only 4s, but of course 4 and 3 owners as well.

The problem is launch day owners of the 4 have experienced a renewal which was used to buy a 4s.

Time will tell us all we need to know, but the time isn't right for another iPhone 4s type sales run.

The 5 will sell well, of course, but not what we've seen, or rather, not an improvement over what we've seen in the past.

Again...you are completely missing the point. There HAS been a '4s type sales run' on EVERY iPhone to date...EACH has outsold the previous model, and in the case of the '4s'...exponentially! Don't. Bet. Against. Apple. It's a money losing act in futility. Trust the analysts...trust the folks you see with iPhones. You don't have to trust Apple. The proof is in the pudding, so to speak. I was blown away by how many iPhones were at the Opening/Closing ceremonies of the Olympics...held by athletes from ALL over the World! If anything, Apple has opened the doors to a HUGE consumer base with pre-paid and Mom & Pop cell providers in areas all over the world. Not to mention, China and soon Russia-- The Big Picture my friend!

Hear's an idea... Let's all stop feeding the troll. They feed on your anguish and frustration you'll never win or change their opinion as they are too narrow minded to listen and debate.

So let's leave him to spout drivel and just reply to comments relating to the OP's question. He will quickly disappear once he dosent get the attention he clearly is craving!

I thought the same with iSoft's original arguments. However, he/she now seems to be 'listening' a bit to what other's are saying...he's not being combative, no name calling...and while I agree he/she is attempting to 'troll' to an extent, everyone truly IS allowed an opinion and we ARE utilizing a public discussion forum.

It's just been a funny decade, watching so many 'professionals' discuss the end of Apple's run...both in sales and the market, yet they're continually proven wrong with each and every product release. I was a Windows guy for 20 years. Switching over 6 years ago was the smartest move I've ever made and it's irrelevant which product I use from Apple. From my Air to my Mac Pro, our field iMacs, the iPhone...my iPad is with me everywhere. My 7 year old son's favorite possession is his iTouch.

It's tough to bet against such brilliance, design, and customer support. Yes, I'm a fan...but ONLY because they've proven to me time and time again that what they sell me 'Just Works!' without Fail! In my line of business, that's paramount

J

 

[Gix1k]

Since the 4S was a crap release basically, you could walk right in to either of the two stores here and get a 4S on release day.