How long until Meta mocks this then copies it?

[Seanm87]

I can just see Zuckerberg making snide comments about the Vision pro and “we dont have any awkward cables hanging from our headset” then shamelessly copy basically everything on it.

Same thing happened when apple removed the headphone jack, a year or two later everyone else did it too.

 

[Longplays]

Copying Samsung's playbook?

Meta and Google are better off looking for their own niche than try to compete in the $3.5k price space.

 

[chabig]

Meta can't copy the Vision Pro. They simply don't have the hardware or software resources. To begin with, they don't have the silicon to power the hardware, and they don't own or control any system software that could deliver a comparable platform.

 

[Kierkegaarden]

The only thing they will mock is the price, just as competitors did when the iPhone was released. They will never be able to match the technology — Meta is already projected to lose $20B+ per year in this category, so I don’t see them having the stomach to sink more into r&d just to chase Apple.

Another interesting tidbit — Apple already has 5000+ patents on the technology. And those patents won’t just cover Vision Pro, but will extend to their other products as well, especially iPhone camera technology. They are so heavily invested on a scale that most other companies can’t be.

 

[chabig]

Apple already has 5000+ patents on the technology.

To clarify, they've filed for 5000+ patents. It will take years for those to process through the patent office. Some will result in patents, some not, and all will be modified as they work their way. But otherwise, I wholeheartedly second your comment. No other company is or can be as invested at that scale.

 

[Abazigal]

I can just see Zuckerberg making snide comments about the Vision pro and “we dont have any awkward cables hanging from our headset” then shamelessly copy basically everything on it.

Same thing happened when apple removed the headphone jack, a year or two later everyone else did it too.

I think the issue is that Meta's business model is fundamentally at odds with the concept of a VR / AR headset. You want as many people to use it as possible, so you can track and presumably serve your users ads, but such a product isn't cheap at all. Not if you want to do it properly (like what Apple has) and make people want to use it. Else, what's the point? All you have is a cheap copy.

 

[Kierkegaarden]

To clarify, they've filed for 5000+ patents. It will take years for those to process through the patent office. Some will result in patents, some not, and all will be modified as they work their way. But otherwise, I wholeheartedly second your comment. No other company is or can be as invested at that scale.

Good point. They have probably been filing these since they began development years ago, but they will be protected from when they filed regardless of when they are granted. That is such a massive amount of patents though — I wonder how this compares to the iPhone.

 

[holisticrunner]

Meta / Google / Samsung / MS .... are not capable of replicating VisionPro ... they are YEARS behind Apple.

The HW/SW/Ecosystem/App Store integration is just otherworldly ... something ONLY Apple can deliver.

I expect everyone else to be DOA.

 

[Ryan1524]

Can a social media company that just recently started building hardware do something like a Vision Pro quickly? Questionable, but not impossible. Depends how much investment they are willing to pour into it. Given Metaverse's success so far...I'm not sure they'll be terribly interested. It's possible this launch will change some minds within Meta to re-double efforts into Quest and Metaverse.

 

[Rigby]

Can a social media company that just recently started building hardware do something like a Vision Pro quickly? Questionable, but not impossible. Depends how much investment they are willing to pour into it. Given Metaverse's success so far...I'm not sure they'll be terribly interested. It's possible this launch will change some minds within Meta to re-double efforts into Quest and Metaverse.

Zuckerberg's Metaverse (Horizon) is a dud so far, but their Quest headsets are actually quite successful particularly for gaming. For example, the Quest 2 is by far the most popular headset used for SteamVR. The upcoming Quest 3 has higher-resolution displays, video passthrough and a Lidar sensor for AR, but costs only a 7th of the Vision Pro and does not need an external battery pack. Obviously the image quality will not be as good (the exact resolution is not known yet), but it will probably be a competent device and sell a lot more units than the Vision Pro due to the price.

 

[BeatCrazy]

Zuckerberg's Metaverse (Horizon) is a dud so far, but their Quest headsets are actually quite successful particularly for gaming. For example, the Quest 2 is by far the most popular headset used for SteamVR. The upcoming Quest 3 has higher-resolution displays, video passthrough and a Lidar sensor for AR, but costs only a 7th of the Vision Pro and does not need an external battery pack. Obviously the image quality will not be as good (the exact resolution is not known yet), but it will probably be a competent device and sell a lot more units than the Vision Pro due to the price.

The problem (since the Vision Pro was announced) is that XR headsets are a 'nice to have', not a 'must have' like a smartphone.

Since everyone can now plainly see just how bad the Meta product(s) is in relation to Vision Pro, I think sales of the Quests will tank for several years.

Because there is no urgent need for a Quest, people will either wait for the Quests to catch up, or for Apple's prices to come down.

 

[dmr727]

Since everyone can now plainly see just how bad the Meta product(s) is in relation to Vision Pro, I think sales of the Quests will tank for several years.

Not sure there's a lot of overlap between the two markets.

 

[Rigby]

Since everyone can now plainly see just how bad the Meta product(s) is in relation to Vision Pro, I think sales of the Quests will tank for several years.

I doubt it. Given the huge price difference they don't appeal to the same users. It's like saying Toyota's car sales will collapse because Lamborghini will release a new sports car. ;-)

Because there is no urgent need for a Quest, people will either wait for the Quests to catch up, or for Apple's prices to come down.

I think many gamers will buy a Quest 3.

 

[LeeW]

I think many gamers will buy a Quest 3.

Absolutely. They are not going to buy a $3.5k headset from Apple and they are not going to all of a sudden sit waiting for the price to come as much as it needs to in order to entice most.

The Quest 3 meets the needs of the masses at a price point that works. Even if you're not a fan of Meta.

 

[BeatCrazy]

I doubt it. Given the huge price difference they don't appeal to the same users. It's like saying Toyota's car sales will collapse because Lamborghini will release a new sports car. ;-)

Not the same, because a Toyota will never be as good/fast as a Lambo, and a Lambo will never be as cheap as a Toyota. The 'balance' that will eventually come to performance and price is years away, and I think most potential buyers will realize this. And they'll just wait it out. Like I said, you don't 'need' a XR headset, so why buy a cheap model knowing it's half-ass compared to how good the Vision Pro is?

I think many gamers will buy a Quest 3.

I'm sure they will. But that's still a small percentage of the population.

Both Tim Cook and Mark Z hope their respective headsets (eventually) become as ubiquitous as wireless headphones. Gonna need a lot more than the hardcore gamer demographic to achieve that. And cheaper of course, but that will come.

 

[Rigby]

Not the same, because a Toyota will never be as good/fast as a Lambo, and a Lambo will never be as cheap as a Toyota. The 'balance' that will eventually come to performance and price is years away, and I think most potential buyers will realize this. And they'll just wait it out. Like I said, you don't 'need' a XR headset, so why buy a cheap model knowing it's half-ass compared to how good the Vision Pro is?

Right now Apple don't have anything affordable, and I'm not convinced their future headset will still be far ahead if they have to compete on price one day.

Both Tim Cook and Mark Z hope their respective headsets (eventually) become as ubiquitous as wireless headphones. Gonna need a lot more than the hardcore gamer demographic to achieve that. And cheaper of course, but that will come.

I don't think devices similar to the current headsets (including Vision Pro) have a snowball's chance in hell to become ubiquitous. They will not only have to become cheaper, but also much smaller and lighter.

 

[BeatCrazy]

I don't think devices similar to the current headsets (including Vision Pro) have a snowball's chance in hell to become ubiquitous. They will not only have to become cheaper, but also much smaller and lighter.

That's why I said 'eventually'. Might be 10 years.

 

[NT1440]

To clarify, they've filed for 5000+ patents. It will take years for those to process through the patent office. Some will result in patents, some not, and all will be modified as they work their way. But otherwise, I wholeheartedly second your comment. No other company is or can be as invested at that scale.

An important distinction for sure, but those of us who have been watching this project unfold for nearly 10 years, they have thousands of *granted* patent applications already in place covering the gamut of technologies at play here.

 

[Rigby]

An important distinction for sure, but those of us who have been watching this project unfold for nearly 10 years, they have thousands of *granted* patent applications already in place covering the gamut of technologies at play here.

Meta has also been in this game for a while (they acquired Oculus VR in 2014). I don't know how many patents and patent applications they have in this area, but here's one from 2015 that appears to be about fast wireless data transfer to a headset:

US9544054B1 - Multidirectional communication system - Google Patents

Various of the disclosed embodiments incorporate wavelength-shifting (WLS) materials to facilitate high data rate communication. Some embodiments employ a waveguide incorporating such WLS materials to receive a wireless signal from a source. The signal may be, e.g., in the optical or ultraviolet...

patents.google.com

 

[NT1440]

Meta has also been in this game for a while (they acquired Oculus VR in 2014). I don't know how many patents and patent applications they have in this area, but here's one from 2015 that appears to be about fast wireless data transfer to a headset:

US9544054B1 - Multidirectional communication system - Google Patents

Various of the disclosed embodiments incorporate wavelength-shifting (WLS) materials to facilitate high data rate communication. Some embodiments employ a waveguide incorporating such WLS materials to receive a wireless signal from a source. The signal may be, e.g., in the optical or ultraviolet...

patents.google.com

Yup, there’s stuff all over the place.

What I think Apple has locked down is likely their hand gesture recognition engine, and the distinct gestures themselves.

 

[Seanm87]

Here we go

https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/mark-zuckerberg-says-apple-vision-pro-has-no-magical-solutions.2392271/

 

[huge_apple_fangirl]

There’s nothing for them to copy. Apple hasn’t come up with some great insight that makes headsets compelling, they’ve just applied their hardware and software expertise to the issue. This is not an iPhone moment where Apple reinvented the form factor of the smartphone. Meta can’t copy Apple’s chip skills, camera expertise, familiar APIs, trusted supply chain, etc.- they simply do not have the ability to make hardware and software like Apple.

 

[AustinIllini]

Facebook has a trust problem

 

[NT1440]

There’s nothing for them to copy. Apple hasn’t come up with some great insight that makes headsets compelling, they’ve just applied their hardware and software expertise to the issue. This is not an iPhone moment where Apple reinvented the form factor of the smartphone. Meta can’t copy Apple’s chip skills, camera expertise, familiar APIs, trusted supply chain, etc.- they simply do not have the ability to make hardware and software like Apple.

I think you’re overlooking how important a UX that doesn’t require controllers is for mainstream adoption of this type of computing.

 

[huge_apple_fangirl]

I think you’re overlooking how important a UX that doesn’t require controllers is for mainstream adoption of this type of computing.

That is indeed true, but it still doesn’t solve the “large bulky device strapped to your face” problem. And I believe Meta has an option to use a Quest without a controller, it’s just not as good as Apple.

What Apple has done here is take all the best ideas people have had about headsets from a design perspective and brought them to reality. It’s a genuinely impressive technological feat. But neither Apple nor Meta has still not come up with a reason why someone would want to use a headset as a serious computing device outside of some niche cases.