How Would You Feel If Apple Shared Nokia’s Fate?

[SpotOnT]

I would be shocked and sad.

I mean like what kind of world is this? A world where people no longer use smartphones, computers, tablets, or watches? So basically no screens at all? Maybe we are talking about some kind of disaster, where society can no longer produce electricity? Or maybe the US gets invaded and all US companies are shut down in favour of the conquers own tech firms? Or maybe it is just some disturbing future where humans have been turned into cyborgs and all screens are surgically implanted into their brains?

It all sounds kind of horrible and bleak…

 

[Sami13496]

Very confused. What is the point of this thread? They're not going to suffer the same fate.

The dumbest comment you can make on a discussion forum is, “What’s the point of this thread?”. The point of a discussion forum is the discussion. The point of this thread is to discuss the topic in the title and share thoughts. If you’re not interested in the subject, you’re free to skip the thread instead of reading and commenting on it.

 

[Luftkopf]

The dumbest comment you can make on a discussion forum is, “What’s the point of this thread?”. The point of a discussion forum is the discussion. The point of this thread is to discuss the topic in the title and share thoughts. If you’re not interested in the subject, you’re free to skip the thread instead of reading and commenting on it.

Honestly it's a bit of a vague premise. The number of steps between where Apple is now, and their exit from consumer product is rather large, and would take many years! To get to that point they'd have to have spent years making things no one wants, and making bad decision after bad decision, driving the customers away to newer, better competitors. If that were the case, I'd imagine many of us would be sad at the demise of a company whose products we once loved, but we'd have moved on.

Or maybe you're talking about something more outlandish and drastic that moves quick enough to shock us?

 

[Artemis70]

If Apple has the same fait as Nokia, I hope it is because something else has come around which is much better. I have no regrets not having my Nokia phones anymore, even though they were great at the time. But the last ones just didn’t match up to the Apple phones. We will see what happens in the future, but I won’t miss Apple if they are disrupted by something better.

 

[teh_hunterer]

The dumbest comment you can make on a discussion forum is, “What’s the point of this thread?”. The point of a discussion forum is the discussion. The point of this thread is to discuss the topic in the title and share thoughts. If you’re not interested in the subject, you’re free to skip the thread instead of reading and commenting on it.

If you want to start a discussion then it helps for the discussion to have a point. I'm trying to glean it but I can't figure out why Nokia would be similar to Apple or what you're even trying to say.

 

[SpotOnT]

Very confused. What is the point of this thread? They're not going to suffer the same fate.

It is worth noting Nokia hasn’t really gone anywhere. It currently employs something like 90,000 people across more than 100 countries and reports an annual revenues of around €30 billion. It has simply exited the consumer phone market (selling all its stake in that division off).

So OP isn’t saying Apple will disappear (they mentioned a transition to semiconductor manufacturing), but rather they will exit the consumer computer, tablet, smartphone, smartwatch market.

Apple exiting those markets at some point is an entire possibility (although we can certainly debate the probably). I mean just look at how Sony once dominated the consumer electronics market - a market they have essentially abandoned today.

 

[Paul1964]

Like what precisely?

From Samsung, Google, Sony, Motorola ......

 

[Atog]

From Samsung, Google, Sony, Motorola ......

Samsung maybe. But no one has the same quality laptops, tablets, phones, and wearables.
Samsung is close though. It would be my plan B if Apple were to become “Nokia.”

 

[Sami13496]

The point wasn’t to debate whether it’s possible or likely that Apple could lose its dominance or end up sharing Nokia’s fate, or how long that might take. Rather, it was to consider, on a more abstract level, what kind of void it would leave in the lives of people who, to one extent or another, are fans of Apple if that were to happen for whatever reason.

 

[theluggage]

Android will disappear long before the iPhone.

Only because, if Apple fails, the iPhone trademark will be one of its most valuable assets and one of the other big phone manufacturers will buy it to rebrand on their Android phones.

Outside the US, Android outsells iOS by about 70% to 30%. It's not going anywhere in a hurry. Its got an open-source core so it can continue even if Google throws in the towel - large phone manufactures are already forking and customising it. Countries and trading blocs can have their own fork for "tech sovereignty".

 

[I7guy]

It's just another tech company now. It still has an advantage over companies like Google and Microsoft in terms of privacy and trust, but that's about it. I used to care deeply about Apple, but it seems to care more about user engagement than user satisfaction, and I'm so tired of its mindless UI/UX changes and unnecessary complexity that my loyalty is rapidly disappearing. I can't remember the last time I was truly delighted by an Apple product, except perhaps for the performance characteristics of the M1 MacBook Air hardware when it first came out. When I hear of an impending release, my first thought isn't anticipation of great new features, but rather wondering what is likely to break or be half-baked. I still prefer Apple products, but that's mostly inertia. I've already mourned for the company that Apple used to be. I'd be sad if Apple shares Nokia's fate, but it will be more out of nostalgia than any current loss.

I think the “connection” to old Apple (and the feeling if SJ didn’t invent it it wasn’t worth inventing) is being lost with new generations of Apple customers. Having said that Apple imo isn’t just another run-of-the-mill tech company.

From 2011 to today showed they aren’t. I used to not be an apple fan, long live blackberry, but over time changed my time and now we have houseful of apple stuff.

People who swore they would never get an apple product now have many of them in their homes. There has to be a reason why this is happening. At this point for me unless Apple really makes a blunder I’ll just stick with iPhone. I like their UI/UX and iOS 26 gave iOS a fresh look. I like Apple products because I really like Apple products. Not because the pain of switching is worse than staying with Apple.

I look forward to Apple events to see what new products and services are in the pipeline waiting to be released.

Apple has grown up as company and I look forward to see where they are headed next. I have faith the new management will carry the torch and at the same time lead in a different but Apple like way.

It’s easy to say the bigger they are are harder they fall, and sure the unlikely could happen, as there is a non-zero (although indeterminate) probability Apple could fail. The world would miss them.

So no, Apple isn’t just another tech company imo.

 

[I7guy]

I would like to see more Big Tech companies follow Nokia and Blackberry's fate. We need a big disruption right about now. Unfortunately, these companies now have more money because many of us continue buying their products and subscriptions. 🤦‍♂️

It’s easy for a tech company to follow Nokia and blackberrys fate. Piss off your customers and stop producing products and services people want to purchase from you. Easy-peasy.

 

[theluggage]

I mean like what kind of world is this? A world where people no longer use smartphones, computers, tablets, or watches? So basically no screens at all? Maybe we are talking about some kind of disaster, where society can no longer produce electricity?

No, Nokia didn't fail because of some apocalypse. They failed because their once market-leading phones (and the Symbian platform that had evolved from a 1991 personal organiser) didn't keep up with developments until it was too late. And then, rather than adopting Android - they brought in a Microsoft (who had also missed the mobile boat) person as CEO and pinned their future on Windows Phone at a time when the Android/iPhone duopoly had already won.

The way Apple could fail (global catastrophes aside) is simply if the fickle finger of the market turns against the iPhone because some trendy new phone brand emerges. It doesn't even have to be technically better - Apple have helped the mobile phone market become a fashion accessory and that tide can turn overnight. All it takes is five words...

Spoiler

...something like "My Grandad has an iPhone" but I'm sure someone could do better.

...to go viral on social media, Apple gets a major blow to its quarterly figures and their shares tank just for a while so that they are cheaper than the value of asset-stripping the company, and that's it.

It's not a world without phones and screens. It's a world where Apple's trademarks have been bought by Samsung to use on Windows laptops and Android phones.

 

[VaZ]

How would you feel if Apple ended up sharing Nokia’s fate and its current business disappeared, becoming, for example, just a semiconductor manufacturer?

For many of us, Apple is an important part of our everyday user experience. It’s more than just a company that makes devices; it’s an ecosystem and, for some, even a lifestyle. Many of us also enjoy following Apple and everything related to it, including discussions here on this forum.

I'm pretty sure the CCP attempted to steal Apple's intellectual property many a times. All you have to do is look at Huawei phones and see the striking similarities.

 

[Le_Chiffre]

Samsung maybe. But no one has the same quality laptops, tablets, phones, and wearables.
Samsung is close though. It would be my plan B if Apple were to become “Nokia.”

Problem is Samsung mobile is going to post an operating loss. While apple is profitable.

If Samsung mobile cannot post a profit, the subsidiary will be cut loose.

Lg showed us Korean conglomerates do not tolerate a subsidiary’s failure.

 

[Baff]

Soon enough we will all have Neuralinks. Then we will throw all our smartphones, smart watches, tablets, laptops, and desktops in the trash and not look back. Obviously not this year, but in 10 years? Maybe.

I've been using apple products for 45 years, since the IIe. 30 years ago it started looking bleak for Apple but they managed to turn it around. Could they go downhill again? Yes. In the last 9 years, they have launched only 2 new products. AirTags in 2021, a decent product, but lacking in many ways (I bought several). VisionPro in 2024. They've sold 100s of them! If they can release a VisionPro 2 at half the price (unlikely with chip prices skyrocketing) and with better apps, they might have something.

What have they actually been doing to keep up with the times? They jumped into bed with OpenAI. Oof. That stank of desperation. Almost everyone immediately saw that as a horrible move. My "Apple trust" level has plummeted since then.

 

[Charlie Bonesx]

becoming, for example, just a semiconductor manufacturer

Apple doesn’t manufacture anything currently so that would be quite a leap!

 

[Baff]

Apple doesn’t manufacture anything currently so that would be quite a leap!

Yeah, Apple has a couple assembly plants, which makes up less than 1% of their business. If they have to fall back on that, they are in serious trouble.

 

[Le_Chiffre]

Only because, if Apple fails, the iPhone trademark will be one of its most valuable assets and one of the other big phone manufacturers will buy it to rebrand on their Android phones.

Outside the US, Android outsells iOS by about 70% to 30%. It's not going anywhere in a hurry. Its got an open-source core so it can continue even if Google throws in the towel - large phone manufactures are already forking and customising it. Countries and trading blocs can have their own fork for "tech sovereignty".

And how long wil that last if these Android companies are unprofitable? Not long. 😂

Android does not outsell Apple globally.

Android only outsells Apple in the budget and midrange segments because Apple doesn’t sell a phone at that price point. Premium or flagship sales. Apple slaughters the Android completion. And that where it matters due to profits gained.

Even Samsung is going to post a quarterly loss in q2, because they are no longer able to compete.

Q3 and q4 will be a bloodbath for Android manufacturers due to an increase in memory and storage prices. Budget and midrange Android devices won’t exist due to price hikes.

And Android flagships sales will collapse with an even bigger price increase and Android oems will not be able to absorb that loss.

Q3 and q4 2026 will be an absolute bloodbath for Android oems.

Apple will be fine.

 

[Happy_John]

Soon enough we will all have Neuralinks. Then we will throw all our smartphones, smart watches, tablets, laptops, and desktops in the trash and not look back. Obviously not this year, but in 10 years? Maybe.

I've been using apple products for 45 years, since the IIe. 30 years ago it started looking bleak for Apple but they managed to turn it around. Could they go downhill again? Yes. In the last 9 years, they have launched only 2 new products. AirTags in 2021, a decent product, but lacking in many ways (I bought several). VisionPro in 2024. They've sold 100s of them! If they can release a VisionPro 2 at half the price (unlikely with chip prices skyrocketing) and with better apps, they might have something.

What have they actually been doing to keep up with the times? They jumped into bed with OpenAI. Oof. That stank of desperation. Almost everyone immediately saw that as a horrible move. My "Apple trust" level has plummeted since then.

No, we won’t. Not soon, and definitely not “all of us”.

 

[josehill]

As an aside, Nokia acquired Bell Labs (birthplace of Unix, C, and many, many other things) in late 2015. I frequently pass by Nokia Bell Labs' global headquarters in Murray Hill, New Jersey. Nokia is scaling it down and moving it to a new location in NJ by 2028. Bell Labs is still a sizable operation, but the headquarters feels like a ghost town compared to its heyday. I feel a little sad every time I drive by.

 

[DaveEcc]

Soon enough we will all have Neuralinks.

If the current state of constant ******tification, spying, rent seeking and gouging from 99% of corporations hasn't dissuaded people from getting Neural Implants... Oh who am I kidding. People will continue to use and defend what's there, even if it's horrendous.

 

[the future]

The way Apple could fail (global catastrophes aside) is simply if the fickle finger of the market turns against the iPhone because some trendy new phone brand emerges. It doesn't even have to be technically better - Apple have helped the mobile phone market become a fashion accessory and that tide can turn overnight.

No way. You seem to forget the ecosystem advantage. Which is much stronger than any „fashion trend“ (insofar those even exist in the tech sphere).

You also have to consider the pure scale at which Apple operates. Even if a „trendy new brand“ could hype-generate relevant demand, it would take many years to get manufacturing anywhere near Apple level, by which time the hype would probably be long gone.

Also, how would this hype be generated in the first place? Because the smart phone is basically feature complete already and development/progress is very incremental. So many reasons this wouldn‘t ever happen.

The only way to hurt Apple would be to invent a new device that replaces the smart phone in people’s lives. Good luck with that.

 

[Atog]

Problem is Samsung mobile is going to post an operating loss. While apple is profitable.

If Samsung mobile cannot post a profit, the subsidiary will be cut loose.

Lg showed us Korean conglomerates do not tolerate a subsidiary’s failure.

Yes, and that would be a real shame—another good product out of the market. I'm not happy with Chinese companies because they do not put too much culture into their products (as Steve would have said). They're there one day, and they turn into something else the next. I don't want my tech stuff to be some kind of random copycat without history and maybe without a future.

 

[TheDauterive]

Android will disappear long before the iPhone.

Having said that what would the alternative be?
Or do you believe the world will stop using phones altogether. 😂

While imagining the details may be difficult, understanding how an innovative product can displace a market-dominant competitor is simple. In fact, the iPhone did that very thing to the Blackberry. In this case, since Apple seems utterly incapable of creating a viable AI competitor, if OpenAI (with Jony Ive) create a phone with the aesthetic and useability as the iphone had circa iPhone X, that could be an alternative I might consider.