How Would You Feel If Apple Shared Nokia’s Fate?

[TheDauterive]

No way. You seem to forget the ecosystem advantage. Which is much stronger than any „fashion trend“ (insofar those even exist in the tech sphere).

You also have to consider the pure scale at which Apple operates. Even if a „trendy new brand“ could hype-generate relevant demand, it would take many years to get manufacturing anywhere near Apple level, by which time the hype would probably be long gone.

Also, how would this hype be generated in the first place? Because the smart phone is basically feature complete already and development/progress is very incremental. So many reasons this wouldn‘t ever happen.

The only way to hurt Apple would be to invent a new device that replaces the smart phone in people’s lives. Good luck with that.

You sound like RIM executives rolling their eyes at the iPhone in 2007. Seriously, do you not understand the stranglehold the Blackberry has on the business market? Apple doesn't stand a chance!

Needless to say, from the inability of commenters to anticipate how a product can be displace, it does not follow that a product cannot be displaced.

PS. My dissatification with Apple has been building for years. If Jony Ive and OpenAI come out with a phone that is cool as hell, can do all the things all phones can do these dats, and actually has a functioning AI assistant, I'd seriously consider it, the "Apple ecosystem" notwithstanding.

 

[Le_Chiffre]

Yes, and that would be a real shame—another good product out of the market. I'm not happy with Chinese companies because they do not put too much culture into their products (as Steve would have said). They're there one day, and they turn into something else the next. I don't want my tech stuff to be some kind of random copycat without history and maybe without a future.

You don’t have to worry about Chinese Android oems for much longer.

Xiaomi already canceled their flagship the 18 pro ultra and Oppo and vivo will follow suit shortly.

Budget and midrange will be decimated this year due to the increase in memory and storage prices.

2026 is not looking good for Android oems, flagships, budget and midrange segments are all getting hammered. And with it their profits will be in free fall.

Asus and onerous have already abandoned the smartphone market. Sony and lenevo will be next. While vivo oppo and Xiaomi all have their marketshare declined by double digits.

Apple bucked the trend having increased marketshare instead.

 

[Le_Chiffre]

While imagining the details may be difficult, understanding how an innovative product can displace a market-dominant competitor is simple. In fact, the iPhone did that very thing to the Blackberry. In this case, since Apple seems utterly incapable of creating a viable AI competitor, if OpenAI (with Jony Ive) create a phone with the aesthetic and useability as the iphone had circa iPhone X, that could be an alternative I might consider.

You might, but how many else will follow?

This isn’t 2009, Ecosystems matter.

Best of luck to open ai, but until they have a product to market it’s just a bunch of nothing.

Least we forget all the other ai hardware manufacturers that went out of business. I would list their names but they aren’t very memorable. 😂

 

[Atog]

You don’t have to worry about Chinese Android oems for much longer.

Xiaomi already canceled their flagship the 18 pro ultra and Oppo and vivo will follow suit shortly.

Budget and midrange will be decimated this year due to the increase in memory and storage prices.

2026 is not looking good for Android oems, flagships, budget and midrange segments are all getting hammered. And with it their profits will be in free fall.

Asus and onerous have already abandoned the smartphone market. Sony and lenevo will be next. While vivo oppo and Xiaomi all have their marketshare declined by double digits.

Apple bucked the trend having increased marketshare instead.

Partially agree but double digit decline is over-exaggerated. While Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo have all lost some market share due to the memory crisis, their declines have been in the single digits (typically 1 to 3 percentage points globally), not double digits.

 

[the future]

You sound like RIM executives rolling their eyes at the iPhone in 2007.

What a lazy comparison. RIM had neither the eco system nor the scale nor a feature complete product (as the iPhone swiftly proved).

 

[the future]

since Apple seems utterly incapable of creating a viable AI competitor

As long as the smart phone is the primary device in people‘s lives, Apple can pick and choose whichever AI engine they want to use (for now, they chose Gemini), and the LLM providers will fight each other to be allowed to serve iPhone users. Because as long as there is no completely new device that replaces the smart phone, AI is just an app/service on the smart phone.

 

[Le_Chiffre]

Partially agree but double digit decline is over-exaggerated. While Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo have all lost some market share due to the memory crisis, their declines have been in the single digits (typically 1 to 3 percentage points globally), not double digits.

I’m not exaggerating. It’s really bad, the next two quarters of 2026 will be a bloodbath Android oems.

 

[scottSE]

I would lose interest in technology. I would get the most basic phone because I needed it, not a great phone because I wanted it.

 

[Ta_whirimatea]

iOS & android are the 2 megalodons in the pond there’s no way one would go bust & leave one remaining. Saying that I hate android cause the software is junk (no privacy) & and a huge array of handsets from a handful of handset makers make a tailored software that just works impossible.

For apple they have their own hardware & unfortunately they also have their own personal software. The software is a mess though & is so riddled with non user friendly features it’s become so hostile it’s horrible to use. But it’s still better than android! … just for now.

I wish some new player entered the field with a revolutionary UI that gives a fresh look on personal devices with software that simply worked & gave the user the tools to be creative in an open constructive way without blockers / scammers / hackers.

 

[AppleTO]

A new company could come in and build an amazing new phone with a great new OS. But, no one will use it if there is no app ecosystem. At the same time, developers won't build apps if no one is using the phone... We're basically stuck.

 

[Happy_John]

I wish some new player entered the field with a revolutionary UI that gives a fresh look on personal devices with software that simply worked & gave the user the tools to be creative in an open constructive way without blockers / scammers / hackers.

That’s a massive ask, or wish.

There’s hasn’t been a revolutionary new UI since the GUI - you could argue that iOS had a revolutionary UI, but really, it was an icon-driven GUI tailored to suit a new hardware firm factor; a small handheld device where the touchscreen was the main input device.

AI driven natural language commands only replaces some classic GUI interface features, it wouldn’t work well for all uses - of you’re editing g a document, you still need to see the document and have a quick snd uncluttered way of choosing tools to edit the document. Doing that through voice commands wouldn’t be an improvement. In the same way, AI agents don’t really replace apps, an agent would sit between the apps and the user. You could use an AI agent to deal with your mail, but there’d still be an email client app.

Even if some revolutionary new hardware or software emerged, it’s most likely to be simply be bought up by an existing large established tech company rather than becoming a new player.

The tech industry has matured to the point that the best hope for success for a start-up is to be bought out or finder/pattered by an existing big player.

 

[Happy_John]

A new company could come in and build an amazing new phone with a great new OS. But, no one will use it if there is no app ecosystem. At the same time, developers won't build apps if no one is using the phone... We're basically stuck.

Such a company would be very quickly bought outright or be partnered/funded by an existing large phone maker. Without massive funding, the new company would not be able to compete at scale.

Look at what’s happening to many Chinese phone makers.

And we’re seeing the same with smart glasses, with or without display capability - there are huge amounts of small companies releasing products, hoping to hit the big time, but they’ll get wiped out or bought out if the smart glasses market matures and goes mainstream, as the market will be taken over by a much, much smaller number of big players, and they’ll get wiped out if smart glasses turn out to be a fad and not a successful product Cara gory in the long term.

 

[Siliconguy]

The iPhone currently has no alternative,

That's very much a personal opinion. I have a Motorola that does just fine for me. I'm not trying to run my whole life on a phone and you might be.

The A16 iPad seems to lack challengers at its price point as does the Neo at least for the minute. Those are probably loss leaders (by the standards of Apple's usual profit margins) to get people into the ecosystem.

 

[Le_Chiffre]

That's very much a personal opinion. I have a Motorola that does just fine for me. I'm not trying to run my whole life on a phone and you might be.

The A16 iPad seems to lack challengers at its price point as does the Neo at least for the minute. Those are probably loss leaders (by the standards of Apple's usual profit margins) to get people into the ecosystem.

You said it your self you use your Motorola as a dumb phone.

If you didn’t you would understand why the iPhone doesn’t have an alternative.

If Lenovo exits the smartphone industry this year will it take Motorola with it?

 

[Siliconguy]

Would not care too much, I would just switch to Linux on a Microsoft surface laptop instead. If Linux had at least one pretty desktop environment I would have switched already, probably.

What, KDE Plasma isn't pretty enough? 🙂

For the record I think it's over hyped too. I prefer Cinnamon with the Hubble Deep Field as wallpaper and the panel transparent. Somehow I can still read the icons clearly unlike with liquid glass.

 

[Siliconguy]

If Lenovo exits the smartphone industry this year will it take Motorola with it?

🤷‍♂️

It's not an immediate problem in any case. When the phone gets flakey or quits I'll get whatever is available.

 

[romanof]

I'd be disgusted, but I figure I'd likely keep doing the things I do now on Windows (I'd rather go Linux but it sounds like it's still not 'there' in terms of polish) and Android. I'd miss Apple's ecosystem experience and polish.

Linux definitely does not have the polish of Apple nor the creamy smoothness of apps working together. What it does have, however, is an environment that does not change with the phases of the moon. I can still compile a program using a script from twenty years ago (not that I would, since I have better ways of doing so now) and the file structure from an ancient backup is still usable. Apple on the other hand, continually deletes this and moves that and changes requirements that sometimes lead to frustrating hours of searching thorough unbelievably dense documentation before the item can be made whole again. And of course there is the ever increasing "We have just saved you from running some despicable and dangerous app not approved by Apple."

The answer (for myself). I use both. MacOS for needed surfing, financials, email and other mundane stuff. Those, at least, haven't changed, so far. Linux is my goto OS for programming, graphics with Gimp and such, video and audio servers, workbench equipment... Stuff that doesn't need to change and that I don't want to change.

As for fun, I use a bulked out Altair 8800, but that is for another thread.

 

[uacd]

If it is supposed to disappear, something is supposed to replace it.

While iPhone is long due for becoming extinct since it is not truly a device “for a cosmic future of humankind” and we use it only because it was popularized as convenient by big corporations, but I still don’t see it going away for 2-3 years more. But later it might change when AI would become more present in our life. Google may start the trend first even, not Apple. And it is very tricky: who sets the trend first gets most.

Most people use their iPhones as cameras. But in the age of AI and after microphones in phones have become so good, why do we even need large phones with giant batteries to take photos? Scrolling TikTok or YouTube all the time is counterproductive, AI can find needed information in milliseconds. In fact phones need to get back to the roots of becoming small, pocketable devices that are able to grab information from online.

Phones need to shrink down again, and Apple Watch also must evolve because it is one of the key devices that finds no use for many people. Currently it is just a tethered to iPhone device that cannot really function on its own, doesn’t have many apps that work without iPhone and so on. It must be akin to a new iPhone - always with you, super small and powerful (thanks to AI).

Still despite all the challenges, Apple is highly unlikely to repeat Nokia’s fate. The userbase is huge, US only is enough to sustain good sales for them forever, and no other US manufacturer can compete as well.

Secondly, Apple also makes computers, highly powerful ones. And they are not going anywhere despite all those AR and VR gimmicks. People still prefer classic desktop experience. And Apple computers are not only relatively more affordable than similar PC machines, but also they offer unique software-hardware experience: they create best-in-class hardware and it works in tandem with their software.

UPD: I completely went off-topic and missed the main point of a thread, what’s my stance? I would definitely feel very sad if Apple is to disappear out of the blue. I am a sharp critic of modern Apple and many things related to them. In fact I dislike the bulkiness of new iPhones, the lack of mini options, the lack of proper software optimization, drip-fed software features and so on… But in no way I wish company to disappear, I intend to continue using Apple devices and I only want company to succeed even more and maybe evolve into something I will not only tolerate but love again. Maybe new CEO will infuse the company with some fresh innovative ideas and moves?

 

[uacd]

I must have missed that.

You should probably tell iPhone users and anyone under the age of 50. 😂

Yep, the user loyalty is through the roof these days. People find it convenient and are not planning to switch

 

[TheAustrianGuy]

I would probably feel the same as with Nokia:
If this ever happens, Apple will have fallen so far behind its competition, and I will have switched to something so far better, that I‘ll just look back in disbelief at how stupid they were, and that their demise was well deserved.

Edit: Typo

 

[Contact_Feanor]

Android will disappear long before the iPhone.

Having said that what would the alternative be?
Or do you believe the world will stop using phones altogether. 😂

I feel like these things don't really matter to the intent of the original post: a counterfactual with the question "how would you feel about that".

 

[adib]

I believe Nokia failed because it kept focusing on ”normal” phones for far too long, even after it had become obvious that smartphones were the future. As a result, the company missed the biggest shift in the mobile industry. In other words, it failed to innovate quickly enough.

This is it. Nokia's failure started with complacency circa 2001. The Communicator was an advanced smartphone. But its 3rd-party app ecosystem didn't keep up with PalmOS and PocketPC. There was a stagnation period, circa 2005-2008 in which both PalmOS and Windows Mobile became the two leading platforms, but each company backing those platforms became complacent too.

Now the duality of Android and iOS has been causing relatively slow innovation in terms of software.

 

[philstubbington]

Wouldn't really care at all.

In fact, I think it's healthier over the long term if companies come/go eventually.

Aggregating power to the point of it becoming impossible to fail has an entire set of baked in problems inherent to it.

Whether Apple fans have realized it or not, the company has already veered quite a ways away from many of the core ideas and ideology. Branding is very good at obfuscating that stuff. It's why "brand" is so heavily valued and leaned into it. People trust it even as the underlying entity changes.

I recommend reading “The Living Company” by Arie de Geus. Also explains what ultimately failed with Nokia.

 

[Basic75]

How would you feel if Apple ended up sharing Nokia’s fate and its current business disappeared, becoming, for example, just a semiconductor manufacturer?

Nokia held on to the past and Apple leapfrogged them technologically. If the same happened to Apple it'd be very interesting to see what new thing could be so advanced to make Apple's products feel stale over night.

For many of us, Apple is an important part of our everyday user experience. It’s more than just a company that makes devices; it’s an ecosystem and, for some, even a lifestyle. Many of us also enjoy following Apple and everything related to it, including discussions here on this forum.

A "lifestyle"? Seriously? What is that even supposed to mean in this context? I have a bunch of Apple devices because for me they are often the best available tool, but not always and in some cases I prefer non-Apple hardware.

The "ecosystem" just means that there are a couple of interoperability features that you get when owning multiple Apple devices. It's not something magical that makes me feel emotionally attached to my computers.

 

[Le_Chiffre]

I feel like these things don't really matter to the intent of the original post: a counterfactual with the question "how would you feel about that".

How does it not matter?

Nokia failed because the iPhone emerged and crushed it, blackberry, lg, htc, Motorola, Microsoft Windows mobile and the entire smartphone and mobile phone industry.

Completely crushed it.

The iPhone replaced the iPod. Remember that?

What will come next will come from Apple, because there is no alternative.

Android is in decline, Google stated that if they are forced to separate Android from alphabet into its own seperate entity Due to antitrust lawsuit. They would abandon it.

Google would abandon Android because it is not profitable. Let that sink in.

The iPhone on the other hand, not soo much.

Without a new game changing alternative to replace the iPhone. Nothing will happen to Apple or the iPhone.

Android on the other hand, the writing is on the wall. All you have to do is open you eyes and look. 🥂