Le_Chiffre
macrumors 6502
When Apple releases its foldable, global Android foldable users will switch.
The floodgates will be unleashed. 😂
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How Would You Feel If Apple Shared Nokia’s Fate?
- Thread starter Sami13496
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When Apple releases its foldable, global Android foldable users will switch.
The floodgates will be unleashed. 😂
Other phone-makers survived the arrival of the iPhone... Nokia were killed by complacency, followed by letting themselves be carpetbagged by Microsoft and nailing their colours to Windows Phone (when it was already a day late and a dollar short).
There was a significant window between the announcement of the iPhone and the first really competitive iPhone - the 3G (the original only being available on AT&T in the US) for competitors to wake up and smell the coffee. Android used that time to pivot from being a Blackberry-like OS to a (clearly iPhone inspired) touch-centric system.
If the thinking exhibited by some here - that Apple is invulnerable, there's no viable alternative to iPhone (the ~50% of USA users and ~70% of worldwide users happily using Android being some kind of illusion) - penetrates to Apple's management then that's exactly how Apple could follow Nokia. Nobody is saying that's inevitable or going to happen tomorrow - but to deny even the possibility of that is the way to make it happen.
Depends what you mean by "innovator". @capamac's point was that Apple have never invented a brand new tech concept out of thin air - they've taken something that was "bubbling under", re-packaged those ideas into a more attractive, easier-to-use product, marketed the heck out of it and captured the market. I guess that still counts as "innovation" so it might be better to say that Apple have never been inventors.
There were plenty of smartphones and PDAs that could do calendar, email, web-browsing and music playback before the iPhone. The first capacitive touchscreen phone was the LG Prada - which bore some superficial similarity to the iPhone (although I don't think it was a smartphone). Android development pre-dated the iPhone, although it underwent a massive pivot from a Blackberry lookalike to an iPhone lookalike before it actually launched.
I think the point here is that - even if Apple still has what it takes - "the next iPhone" is probably already out there in some rough form that isn't really catching on. I think that's what Apple were trying for with Apple Vision but it didn't stick (or we may end up looking back on it as more like "the next Newton" - and, remember, without the Newton & the investment Apple put in to the ARM 6, Apple Silicon probably wouldn't exist in its current form).
the future
macrumors 68040
Apple has a metric ton of patents of all sorts. They sure as hell are inventors, too.
In general, the „shiny package“ theory of why Apple is so successful vastly underestimates their innovativeness.
Happy_John
macrumors 68020
To put it another way, the "shiny package" theory holds as long as you factor in that Apple puts a lot of effort into constantly having new "shiny packages", and protecting the IP of those new shiny packages.
Nokia dominated the market, but were then overtaken. They sold a lot of their variant of shiny packages, but then someone came along with a shinier variant. Apple has no choice but to keep churning out new iterations.
I agree that Apple has veered away in some aspects. Here are a few:
1. Software quality and UI/UX: I mainly mean on the Mac...just look at Apple Photos, Music, and iMovie on the Mac. These are years behind the best versions of iPhoto and iMovie. I can't even tell what are buttons in much of Apple's apps. Tahoe is a disaster and most of its choices are being reversed. The trend toward flat design went too far and I hope Steven Lemay will continue to correct these mistakes. I'm not a fan of saying "Steve wouldnt' have done this..." but man, I guarantee Steve would have caught and stopped many of the UI travesties we have experienced over the past few years.
2. Upsell via ads in software. They have added ads to the Settings app. Launching Pages or Numbers prompts you to "upgrade" to the new bundle. There are frequent popups elsewhere about services. I believe they advertised AppleTV and/or specific movies within software. For me, this is just a few steps away from "Intel Inside" stickers on hardware. It's stupid and gross and needs to stop.
3. Alternate App Stores and payment methods: It boggles my mind that Apple has decided to let the EU (and others) legislate this into existence. Apple could have taken the high road, been a better global citizen and supported users by allowing these things. But Apple claims everything they do is "for privacy and security". It's comical. I buy things 3x per week using the Amazon app on my iPhone with my credit cards stored in Amazon. Apple allows this because they need Amazon....but if some small developer wants to collect payments, nope...Apple gets its 30%.
4. Related to #3, overall Developer Relations. Apple has never been good here, but I think they are at an all time low.
5. Shrinkflation: removing power bricks..while saying its for the environment.
capamac
macrumors 6502a
I view this particular move as OK, coz the EU should have control over what goes on in EU borders, and what a government (representing the people, ideally at least) desires should supercede the desires of mere corporations.
Happy_John
macrumors 68020
This is extremely strange wording. It's like saying "AL Capone let the FBI arrest him on tax evasion charges."
It wasn't within Al Capone's remit to give permission to the FBI, and it wasn't in Apple's remit to give permission to let the EU to do this.
Apple is a corporation, not a judiciary or a leglisator.
Le_Chiffre
macrumors 6502
Dominated now that’s funny 😂
Nokia sold 7 million n95 devices in 2007, the year the first iPhone was released.
In 2006 the smartphone market was somewhere between 40 and 60 million units. For the entire year. Apple sells more iPhones in a 1-2 months. 😂
Happy_John
macrumors 68020
Are you saying Nokia didn't dominate the non-smartphone market in they heyday?
Quoting unit numbers is misleading, as worldwide, far, far more people have a smartphone as standard today than people had mobile phones 20 years ago.
It's a bit like comparing populations numbers now with 2 centuries ago. The population of the planet then was roughly 1 billion, now it is 8 billion.
If you want a convincing argument, you need percentages showing market share, not unit numbers.
Le_Chiffre
macrumors 6502
Are you moving the goalposts?
I said smartphones, because that’s what Apple makes, iPhones. Not dumb phones.
So if you want to compare Nokia smartphones from back in the day. Go ahead, they never sold much and smartphone market was absolutely minuscule.
Or you can also start comparing the iPhone to how many horse and buggy’s were sold annually in the 1800s. 😂
Happy_John
macrumors 68020
I'm not moving the goalposts. I'm pointing out that you are misrepresenting Nokia's market share buy using sold units without any context of the total size of the market,
According to ReaearchGate, by Q3 2007, Nokia had slightly over 50% of the mobile phone market. Motorola came seconds, at roughly 18% of the market.
Nokia dominated the mobile phone market in 2007.
A quick graph clarifying Nokia's market share before, during and after the introduction of smartphones is linked belowL
If you were an adult in the late 1990s it was very hard to imagine a world in which Microsoft was not THE dominate platform owner for ALL of computing. Apple, if it survived at all, was going to be a niche machine for graphic artists, video editing, desktop publishing. MS had scale.
Look at Office suites. MS dominated with Office. Excel, Word and PowerPoint were everywhere, 95% of the time running on Windows. Then, over time...Google Docs. I never thought I would see something supplant Office, but Google did it for a few key markets. Edu and small biz and startups. They now completely dominate K-12. I think this a combination the product and the pricing. The product is better in some ways (collaboration, cloud) and worse/OK in other ways (UI, features).
A large percentage of the top tech companies literally DID NOT EXIST before 2000. Heck, all the huge AI companies are just a few years old. There are always bubbles, but there is also always innovation and disruption.
The smartphone replaced computers for a large percentage of the population. Something will replace the smartphone for a large percentage of the population for the vast majority of their tasks. It is inevitable.
Will that happen in 5 years? 10 years? 20? idk.
Is the something "wearables"? If yes, Apple is well positioned. Is it AI-enabled whole-house voice assistants? If yes, Apple is somewhat OK.
it is possible for Apple to be greatly altered. All it takes is a few mistakes and someone coming in with a great new thing/idea.
lol....really, Apple is a corporation?
Sorry I wasn't clear enough (for you).
My point is that Apple could have done what the regulations wanted them to do..which was clear and obvious...before the regulators mandated them to do it! And many of the biggest Apple fans wanted Apple to do these things. how is that not clear to you?
When my kids were kids, it was a known rule that they had to clean their room. They often did not clean their room. I then reprimanded them and gave some form of punishment. If they had cleaned their room on time and up to standard, THERE WOULD HAVE BEEN NO PUNISHMENT.
Like they sell enterprise servers and large storage arrays, service contracts on all.
I agree. My point is that Apple should have made the necessary changes on their own. Take the high road, support customers and developers. Everyone wins. Apple could have had positive PR instead of a fight with the EU.
Le_Chiffre
macrumors 6502
Nokia sold around 40 million smartphones for the entire 2006 year. Let that sink in.
That 50% number for one quarter in 2007 is absolutely minuscule.
Le_Chiffre
macrumors 6502
Their b2b business. Not very consumer facing now is it?
Hp’s consumer division is basically printers. 😂 , not very good ones at that.
the future
macrumors 68040
Yeah, and then (ultra)mobile computing came along and they f*d that up royally. And compared to the scale of mobile, the scale they had before paled in comparison.
It is not inevitable at all; actually I would bet against it. First someone needs to invent a gadget that is more useful and versatile and convenient than the most useful, versatile and convenient gadget ever invented, the smart phone. Tough ask, that. Maybe the smart phone is just too good (and too refined/feature complete) to ever be replaced.
Yeah, that mythical „new thing“. Easier said than done.
What people like you don‘t really acknowledge is that (ultra)mobile was an opportunity for the ages, and Apple completely nailed it. Which is why the iPhone became the most successful and important (consumer) tech product of all time, by far. If you realize this, you may not be so confident anymore that it will „inevitably“ be replaced.
Hey, you may be right. Of course the smartphone (iPhone) is huge and has transformed many industries.
You seem to think that all innovation and invention is done...we can stop now because we have the iPhone. "640K should be enough for anyone".
I'm 53 years old...my opinion is that nothing is so dominate, so powerful, so ubiquitous that it cannot be supplanted or completely replaced. The simple fact that you are speaking about Apple...which just 30 years ago was supposed to be DEAD...makes my point.
Go back and ask people in the 80s or even 90s if they thought that there would be no more Sears, Kmart, or JCPenny stores. Or that you would "call" a stranger to come give you a ride, in the stranger's car. Go back to 2010 and tell Cable TV executives that in a few years they would lose at least 60% of their subscribers.
Remember when Netscape had 90% market share? Then IE? Original AT&T? IBM? Compaq? Kodak? Blockbuster?
Sorry you don't like my hand wave "new idea" but I'm not smart enough to invent stuff. But I am smart enough to know that someone will invent something.
I seriously doubt that my grandchildren will be using a smartphone as their primary "computing" device.
turbineseaplane
macrumors Penryn
Honestly, the more Apple turns into a financialization operation working to jam ADs, subscriptions and recurring revenue extraction streams into everyone's lives, the more I root for some major change and their downfall.
I don't know if any leadership change can really fix the direction they've gone in at this point.
It might just be too late to turn this ship around.
(I'm speaking as someone who was into Apple for their former focus on product, not as someone only concerned about their stock price)
I don't know if any leadership change can really fix the direction they've gone in at this point.
It might just be too late to turn this ship around.
(I'm speaking as someone who was into Apple for their former focus on product, not as someone only concerned about their stock price)
Le_Chiffre
macrumors 6502
the future
macrumors 68040
Not all innovation, just „ultra mobile computing“ innovation. The pocket computer we call smart phone may very well be the end of that line.
Also, many inventions that are much older have not been replaced, either. The car, for one. Some things are just the ideal implementation of an idea / a need.
Not to speak for the poster but no person educated on the tech industry or business thinks the same way about Google and Apple. We know how Google makes money---we are the product. They take our data and sell ads and services. Some people are fine with that and getting a free or near-free product is worth the tradeoffs for them.
As the poster said...Apple's focus used to be product. Creating the world's best personal computers and OS. Then the best devices (iPod). Then the best devices + (respectful) services: iPod + iTunes Music Store.
Over time, under Cook, Apple has been more focused on evenue extraction via services. You can't deny that. From a corporate and market perspective, it is (probably) the right move for Apple...for consumers...it's a mixed bag.
Not for a while, Nokia better resembles Kodak, never took digital photography seriously, meanwhile Apple continue to add to its ecosystem and once again beat Nvidia as the most valued. Lets see what the new CEO does but I hear Cook will still be in background not going far.