HobeSoundDarryl
macrumors G5
Honestly I think you're probably a different type of user than any form of cord cutting or skinny bundles are ever going to target. I'm super tech oriented, have been my whole life, but I don't care one iota about 5.1 sound or DVR and about 90% of the channels that are on cable/sat these days.
So do you think you are representative of the increasingly mainstream- apparently happy to forgo higher quality sound (and picture?) and DVR functionality, not getting a favorite show or channel, etc for what: a modestly lower monthly fee and/or so you can feel like you've stuck it to the cable or satt company?
It's a legitimate concern for these companies as there is a whole generation that isn't cord cutters... they are "cord nevers".
I'm believing you are confusing what "cord nevers" mean. It's generally not people who have never had cable or satt, it's people who haven't PAID for it (yet). When we were all about the age of the generation now called millenials, almost all of us were "cord nevers" too. When I was their age, I was also a cell phone never, a car never, a home never, etc.
In my own experience, these "younger users" (millennials) have basically worshipped cable or satt television with DVRs for most of their lives. I'd even go so far to wonder if there has ever been a generation before that has been so enamored with video entertainment, thrust into their hands from the earliest age and a mainstay distraction for their entire lives.
The thing is this though: Mommy & Daddy PAID for it for them. Mommy & Daddy also paid for the home they live(d) in, which doesn't mean they will forever be "home nevers" and M&D might have bought them their first car, which doesn't mean they are unlikely to ever buy a car. Those mobile devices that are apparently behind this "never" idea might have been purchased by M&D too. Etc. Food. Clothing. School supplies. And on and on, none of which make them "food nevers", "clothing nevers", etc either.
I have one of these millennials myself. When home from college, there is practically a beeline (and then) monopoly on watching favorite shows accumulated on a DVR on the big screen in surround sound. They may make due when away at college because they are still "TV nevers", "home nevers", "good job nevers", etc but as soon as there is access, the tiny screen in their hand with no DVR and no surround sound is laid down for the bigger one deluxe. Technically, they are a "cord never" since M&D pays for it.
I suspect there is plenty in the millennial crowd that are only "cord never yets" instead of "cord never in the future." As soon as they are no longer "home nevers" & "good job nevers" where they have some spare money to buy such things, I suspect they'll want their own better TV viewing & listening experiences, as good as what they had at home (paid for by M&D). I don't believe when these teens & younger twenty-somethings are thirty- & forty-somethings, they'll still be satisfied with the many tradeoffs of "good enough" knowing that M&D has a much better setup over at their place.
Younger users are increasingly not even getting home internet and using mobile devices and those plans to consume content. A lot of that stuff is now getting zero rated thus avoiding any cap issues.
Are they paying for that mobile data plan or is that option free to them courtesy of M&D's family plan? If the former, the cost of "unlimited* data" and actually living in a (separate) home will eventually make it a cheaper option for them to quit the "never"... or their home job will press them to get a wired connection... or the home alarm system will do it, etc. Many have not yet reached the point where they need that pipe or are not yet fully paying for things that make them weigh the value of a wired vs. wireless pipe, making them "not yets" instead of really "forever nevers."
Most extremely: every baby born today is pretty much a nearly "everything never" but as they age, that will certainly change. Or until 2007, we were all "iPhone nevers" and look how that has evolved.
TV in its present form is in serious danger just based upon the usage patterns of the upcoming generations of customers (not going to be customers possibly)
To this, I'll simply say maybe. I have a hard time believing that the masses will be so quick to settle for lower quality picture & sound, having to jump through hoops to jump from app to app and/or box to box to watch things, no DVR or gimped DVRs and so on... all to "save(?)" $10 or $30/month... especially as the wired broadband providers increasingly implement and/or tighten bandwidth tiers to maintain their revenue flows even if the extinction of their cable TV business comes to pass.
Basically, in the end, I fully expect all of the players to still make at least what they make now. If cable is completely killed off, I expect Comcast, etc to make up for cableTV subscription dollars in broadband fees (raised as necessary to replace the lost revenues). If wireless broadband really can kill off wired broadband, I expect Comcast, etc to get (or buy) into the wireless industry and still take just as much- if not more- than they do now from us consumers. I foresee no scenario where we really get everything we want for a fraction what we traditionally pay and the new stuff we'll want to watch in the future keeps getting piloted too. Cut out the commercial revenues and the concept gets even weaker. Put a new middleman in (like Apple) and the concept gets even weaker. But we keep spinning it like we think it will come to pass anyway.
I'll wish for it right with everyone else. But I also wish I could get the next iPhone, iPad & Macs from Apple for 80% or 90% less than they traditionally cost too. I suspect the chances of that are about the same.
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