Intel Expecting Apple to Transition to Custom ARM-Based Chips Starting in 2020

[Roger67]

It is never right to go Intel.

Apple is trying to live up to its own mythology but it didn't want to go to Intel it had too. Intel saved Apple. Microsoft saved Apple when Jobs came back with money and Office for Mac. Samsung, Qualcomm. Gorilla Glass made the iphone possible.

No doubt apple can create a powerful chip (much smaller companies have done it with ARM help) and will use it to fudge together a copy of the Chromebook but this can't be sustained in the long run. Institutional buyers don't like closed systems. Competitors who listen to their customers will continue to innovate. Those with new ideas for applications won't jump through hoops to play in Apple's game. Each version of this chip will be more and more outdated until at some point a CEO will say that apple isn't a chip company. It happened before though it took years to happen.

 

[cmaier]

Apple is trying to live up to its own mythology but it didn't want to go to Intel it had too. Intel saved Apple. Microsoft saved Apple when Jobs came back with money and Office for Mac. Samsung, Qualcomm. Gorilla Glass made the iphone possible.

No doubt apple can create a powerful chip (much smaller companies have done it with ARM help) and will use it to fudge together a copy of the Chromebook but this can't be sustained in the long run. Institutional buyers don't like closed systems. Competitors who listen to their customers will continue to innovate. Those with new ideas for applications won't jump through hoops to play in Apple's game. Each version of this chip will be more and more outdated until at some point a CEO will say that apple isn't a chip company. It happened before though it took years to happen.

Institutional buyers don’t like closed systems? That explains the millions of iPads and iPhones they’ve purchased.

 

[Mac Heretic]

Switching to Intel Macs was a dream at the time especially for previous Windows users, because they gained an access to those stunningly beautiful machines which could even run their old OS and expensive software during the transition period and at the same time discover a much better OS and its quality apps. Everything worked like before and then some. It was a heaven.

If Apple moves to ARM, we need a real benefit and a relief. We need more than an extended iOS with a redesigned physical keyboard and a better battery life and a co-operative pro company like Autodesk telling us, that now one has an access to a completely new rented software with some "innovative" "plus-service" "shared cloud platform" system, which for some odd reason is also made incompatible with "old" purchases when closely inspected.

If I would need just a "cool" device to be cool myself, I might as well buy a fridge and jump into it.

 

[BlargKing]

Goodbye software compatibility. Good thing most pros moved away from Apple already anyways.

 

[ipedro]

Well if this is true then I dearly hope Apple can pull it off.

I am old and ugly enough to remember the transition to Intel from PPC; now that was a great move. No question.
But, Apple's base was far smaller… and even then it took a lot of heartbreak.

Not really looking forward to the "new" Rosetta as companies suck teeth while deciding if they are porting it all over.

Of course there was BootCamp — which was great — but this time round?

Anyway… deep breaths and let's see if Apple come up with some magic.

You answered your own question, sort of.

All the major developers today are either already on iOS or are moving there. Take Adobe for example. A traditional software powerhouse who’s been responsible for making Macs successful with creatives. Lightroom for iPad is to me, as a photographer, far better than the Mac version. Adobe thinks so too, which is why their new Lightroom CC is based on the iOS version. Now, they’re releasing Photoshop, the real Photoshop, for iPad.

So, this Intel to ARM transition is going to be easier than the one from PowerPC to Intel. Apple is allowing developers to port iPad apps to Mac starting this year. By the time they introduce the new ARM Macs, the majority of modern apps will already run natively on ARM.

Second. In today’s world, Windows has almost completely lost its relevance. It’s not the ubiquitous powerhouse it was when Apple had to build Rosetta. Which apps run on Windows that don’t have a Mac or iOS counterpart? Developers who build only for Windows are a pretty niche market these days.

I won’t be surprised to see the new Mac Pro and probably the MacBook Pro have dual Intel + ARM chips but consumer Macs will easily transition to ARM only over 2 or 3 years. MacBooks, MacBook Air first, iMac, iMac Pro, and MacBookPro the following year, then the Mac Pro drops Intel support some time down the road when there are no Intel only professional programs to require keeping the Intel chip around.

 

[Lone Deranger]

You would think with a major modular redesign of the Mac Pro this year that it will be supported for a long time, but now I'm not sure.

Maybe there will be an Intel module and an ARM module released later? (I’m only half serious, as I don’t think it would be feasible. But it would be rather neat.)

 

[sirozha]

Well-I guess that settles it. Apple was nice for decade and a half, but an ARM will never be an i7.

The MacBook Pro, the iMac Pro, and the Mac Pri will stay on Intel for a foreseeable future. The MacBook/MacBook Air and possibly the iMac will go ARM.

 

[timidpimpin]

Apple sure loves to switch architectures. First 68K, then PowerPC, then Intel, and now ARM?

I love ARM chips and all... but pick a damn architecture and stick with it, Apple!

 

[LeonardXW]

I am going to buy a new MacBook Pro this year, I am wondering if the intel processor allowed to run the unified apps.

I need a macbook this year, so I won’t care to wait for the unstable first gen arm based macbook.

 

[Reindeer_Games]

They just don’t care about you.

Really?! Thats the attitude why I left the Beta Program in the first place. Hope you've enjoyed all those OS's you mentioned.

 

[BlargKing]

In today’s world, Windows has almost completely lost its relevance.

Its still quite relevant when you can run it on whatever hardware you want vs having to buy whatever half baked hardware Apple releases every 3-5 years.

 

[Scooz]

Because people only started buying Macs in greater numbers when it could also run Windows natively.

Hm, sarcasm or my misleading question?

I was wondering why one would need processor compatibility between Apple’s device families when the problem could be solved by providing multi-architecture compiles.

I too find Intel-compatibility for switching OSes much more important on the desktop.

 

[cube]

I too find Intel-compatibility for switching OSes much more important on the desktop.

It is as important on the MBP.

 

[techwhiz]

My PhD dissertation was on CPU caches. I was a designer on the original Opteron, UltraSparc V, Exponential x704, etc. Designing A12 is not that different from designing a multi core x86.

We've had the discussion before; you and I.
I never called into question your background, but just to refresh your memory, I'm the guy that worked at Amdahl in the CPU group and my area of research and specialization was CPU and DSP architectures.
I wrote a few papers on cache coherency.
I've designed a few dedicated processors for video encoding.
I've spent the last 30 years or so designing and taping out chips in just about every node up to and including 16nm FinFET.

I wasn't saying they can't do it.
I didn't say the technology didn't exist.
I was just outlining that there are large technical hurdles that need to be overcome and I just don't see the business case to even bother.

Intel gives them access to processors before anyone. They have made variants that were exclusive to Apple for long periods of time. When it comes to Intel; Apple gets what Apple wants up to a certain point.

There have been many companies that had brilliant people that just couldn't keep up with Intel for any number of reasons. The main reason of Apple's switch to Intel was the failure of AIM and the PPC 970.
The 970 didn't scale in speed and the IBM was not interested in low power laptop processors.

Once again, I don't see the business case for the resource investment required. IMHO

 

[ipedro]

Imagine how thin the next iMac will be with ARM CPUs. You'll get email alerts even when off if you even need to turn it off at all.

Exactly. I can see the new iMac being as thin as the new iPad Pro. Technically, it can be even thinner because it doesn’t need room for a battery. Have it built on an articulated arm like the lamp iMac so that it can lie flat on the table for use with Apple Pencil. Instant buy for me!

 

[Scooz]

It depends on how you are using processor/architecture specific intrinsics or just go the brute force way of using whatever framework is offered. Ideally Apple will provide a framework that scales across the different types of CPUs but then you don't know exactly if certain apps used Apple APIs in the first place. I would imagine most 3rd Party Pro apps didn't.

There‘s so much open source these days when it comes to frameworks. And I would assume that a third party would also do fat/multi-platform compiles if they were providing a closed source solution.

 

[abrantes09]

Well-I guess that settles it. Apple was nice for decade and a half, but an ARM will never be an i7.

You clearly have not seen the A12X, it's more powerful than a lot of laptops on the market. I have a lot of faith in Apple for this move.

 

[techwhiz]

Sure. One advantage of TSMC over Intel, though, is that Intel only (more or less) services Intel. TSMC has to answer to many customers. At AMD we had fabs. That didn’t do us much good. Apple can also switch fabs to Global Foundries or Samsung or the like if it turns out TSMC hits a roadblock.

If they go to Samsung or TSMC 7nm they get locked out of Global because their performance process is 14nm FinFET.

 

[lunarworks]

Apple sure loves to switch architectures. First 68K, then PowerPC, then Intel, and now ARM?

I love ARM chips and all... but pick a damn architecture and stick with it, Apple!

- The 68k line was seemingly at a dead end, and RISC architectures were seen as the future at the time. Time for PPC, which Apple had a hand in.

- IBM couldn't make (or was unwilling to make) a G5 cool enough to go in a laptop, leaving customers angrier than Mac Pro users are today. Time for Intel.

As for switching to ARM? Apple won't be at the mercy of Intel's constantly changing road map anymore, and can converge their product lines down the road when it makes sense.

 

[Minxy]

I'm just wondering how probable is it that Apple will launch a high-end Mac Pro this year complete with an advanced Intel processor, and then just one year later replace it with their own.

Sure Apple may be developing their own software like Final Cut to be compatible with it but what about third-party software? Would it then have to be like AMD chips that have full compatibility with intel?

 

[cmaier]

We've had the discussion before; you and I.
I never called into question your background, but just to refresh your memory, I'm the guy that worked at Amdahl in the CPU group and my area of research and specialization was CPU and DSP architectures.
I wrote a few papers on cache coherency.
I've designed a few dedicated processors for video encoding.
I've spent the last 30 years or so designing and taping out chips in just about every node up to and including 16nm FinFET.

I wasn't saying they can't do it.
I didn't say the technology didn't exist.
I was just outlining that there are large technical hurdles that need to be overcome and I just don't see the business case to even bother.

Intel gives them access to processors before anyone. They have made variants that were exclusive to Apple for long periods of time. When it comes to Intel; Apple gets what Apple wants up to a certain point.

There have been many companies that had brilliant people that just couldn't keep up with Intel for any number of reasons. The main reason of Apple's switch to Intel was the failure of AIM and the PPC 970.
The 970 didn't scale in speed and the IBM was not interested in low power laptop processors.

Once again, I don't see the business case for the resource investment required. IMHO

Most of the best engineers I worked with, from AMD, DEC, etc., are at Apple. They have the folks to do it. And Intel hasn’t shown that they can advance things anymore. If Intel today were Intel of a decade ago, I’d say Apple shouldn’t bother. Apple has already gotten past most of the technical hurdles to do it. What remains is pretty easy.

 

[ipedro]

- The 68k line was seemingly at a dead end, and RISC architectures were seen as the future at the time. Time for PPC, which Apple had a hand in.

- IBM couldn't make (or was unwilling to make) a G5 cool enough to go in a laptop, leaving customers angrier than Mac Pro users are today. Time for Intel.

As for switching to ARM? Apple won't be at the mercy of Intel's constantly changing road map anymore, and can converge their product lines down the road when it makes sense.

Even more straight to the point: Apple has become better than Intel at designing chips.

Let that sink in for a second. Apple is better than Intel at making computer chips. For those who grew up on Pentium chips and Intel essentially owning the entire computer market, that kind of blows my mind.

 

[poorcody]

Institutional buyers don’t like closed systems? That explains the millions of iPads and iPhones they’ve purchased.

...or IBM transitioning to Mac a few years ago...

 

[cmaier]

Really?! Thats the attitude why I left the Beta Program in the first place. Hope you've enjoyed all those OS's you mentioned.

Why would they hinder their future ability to make the best computers they can make for 100 million people in order to cater to the particular needs of 1 million people?

 

[Reindeer_Games]

The MacBook Pro, the iMac Pro, and the Mac Pri will stay on Intel for a foreseeable future. The MacBook/MacBook Air and possibly the iMac will go ARM.

We can only hope-but I now I'm in the guessing game of updating my next laptop, and this just makes it harder to make a judgment call since I was looking at a MBA.