Intel Expecting Apple to Transition to Custom ARM-Based Chips Starting in 2020

[LordVic]

I mean, considering it's a 7.5W passively cooled chip, I'd be more inclined to compare the A12X to intel's core M chips - which if we're being polite we could say it compares favourably to? Even if performance doesn't scale linearly with increased wattage and frequency, I think it's fair to say Apple wouldn't be too hard pressed to match the performance of the chips you've linked.

Don't know. doesn't scale linearly like you said, There might be a point where they run into massive diminishing returns on power to performance. Similar to Intel did back in the Pentium 4 days where they thought the key to better performance was just keep pumping more and more power into the chip hoping that MHz would solve everything. They figured at the time they could keep doin this till they hit 6-8ghz CPU's. But due to diminishing returns and the power draw not scaling linearly, they hit a wall around 4.5ghz.

So far we have seen some examples in the real world of ARM CPU's that were scaled up for server infrastructure, and while they do amazing on SOME tasks, they fell completely flat on others, leaving ARM servers at least as a very niche and task specific use case.

Although there are new ARM Server CPU's coming out in 2019 that I haven't seen benchies for that i'm curious about. I can only go on what the market / tech looks like today.

 

[k27]

Again, if you can't appreciate an iPad with its tech in this small form factor and passive cooling which goes toe to toe with an i9 MBP then i got nothing to say. I personally want that tech on my laptop.

The comparison is still meaningless because you don't compare the CPUs in your Encoding-Benchmarks.

 

[gnipgnop]

I think what is more likely is that Apple will migrate the MacBook to ARM as a very low power laptop with 2-3 day battery life, but will likely leave the MacBook Pro, Mac Mini and iMac on intel.

That's certainly a possibility. Another one is that they would include the standard iMac as an ARM-based machine and keep the Pro lineup on Intel. At any rate, I wouldn't think it was that likely that Apple would shift the entire lineup to ARM overnight even if the long-term plan was to have all of their hardware running Apple designed chips.

 

[Lankyman]

Hand me a transistor spice deck, a power budget, a die area budget, and the DRC deck, and I’ll get started.

Seems daft for Apple to spend billions of dollars on development when you have so clearly got it covered. Why not drop them a line?

 

[Delgibbons]

The comparison is still meaningless because you don't compare the CPUs.

Plus Apple can't design cooling solutions for toffee. Look at the Mac "Pro" or the new Mac Mini.

Throttlecity.

https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/new-mac-mini-thermal-throttling.2156112/

 

[4look4rd]

So this is how Mac will die.
To all saying cool and great arm gpus are fast and maybe even better that iris pro etc. well blame apple and their greed for not putting a dedicated gpu on the Macs.
As for cpu power don't make me laugh arm going against i7,...... not even against an AMD.

I think its a little early to say that. The CPU in the ipad pro shows that it smokes the Y series and keeps up with the U series from intel. This is in a fanless design which is not possible with the U series without seriously underclocking it.

I wonder if the can scale performance to the HQ series in a laptop form factor with active cooling. iMacs use laptop parts anyway so its not like we ever got the best possible performance from them.

The problem will be software in the short run. I work in BI and I think it will be a long time before all those important apps are ported to ARM, granted this is a niche market I imagine there are a lot of other niches for professionals out there.

 

[LordVic]

iMacs use laptop parts anyway so its not like we ever got the best possible performance from them.

as an FYI, while the GPU, and many of the chipset controllers / memory are laptop based, all 27" iMacs at least have desktop CPU's. itis only the 22" that uses the laptop CPU.

 

[Spock]

Who cares if it can run Windows? If you want to run Windows then why did you buy a Mac? And if you have a few Windows programs that won’t run on a Mac then buy a cheap PC. I used the Mac a long time long before the intel switch and I could live without Windows then and can certainly live without it now. I think a switch to ARM will be another reason to think Apple will be merging MacOS and iOS despite what they have said otherwise. They have been building a foundation for a long time. Remember, when Steve announced the iMac G4 he said it was the death of the CRT and then they announced the CRT based eMac G4 shortly after.

 

[jonnysods]

I can see the benefits of the processing power. Not sure about graphics though.

 

[cmaier]

Seems daft for Apple to spend billions of dollars on development when you have so clearly got it covered. Why not drop them a line?

They have it covered too. They don’t need me. I worked with many of those people. I was describing how they work.

 

[jayducharme]

Apple will be at the mercy of TSMC and their fab cycles.
So if TSMC misses or delays a process node they are no better than Intel.

But the big difference is that Apple has to wait for Intel to design and develop the chip, not only fabricate it. With Apple handling all the design and development, TSMC just has to manufacture it. There will be a point at which chips can no longer be shrunk. (IMO 5 nm makes for ludicrously tight tolerances as it is.) But Apple can keep tweaking and improving their designs using existing fabrication processes.

 

[0837990]

Two A12X are faster than an i7 for a fraction of a cost. That’s guaranteed. Nobody knows what designs they have in the labs.

Your statement is completely contradictory. Nobody knows what Apple has in the labs, but you can guarantee that what they have in the labs is faster than an i7, and at a fraction of the cost. You know this, even though you have stated that nobody knows what's in Apple's labs. What a fantastic foresight. Maybe politics is for you.

 

[Heineken]

Who cares if it can run Windows? If you want to run Windows then why did you buy a Mac? And if you have a few Windows programs that won’t run on a Mac then buy a cheap PC. I used the Mac a long time long before the intel switch and I could live without Windows then and can certainly live without it now. I think a switch to ARM will be another reason to think Apple will be merging MacOS and iOS despite what they have said otherwise. They have been building a foundation for a long time. Remember, when Steve announced the iMac G4 he said it was the death of the CRT and then they announced the CRT based eMac G4 shortly after.

Yes, indeed. Some are so fixated on running windows as if that was an option for many years before intel transition. Nobody needed windows at that time. I know I didn’t.

 

[pmore]

That's it for the Mac. Even Microsoft tried something like that with no success. People expect a desktop to be powerful.

 

[Heineken]

That's a big part that makes no sense to me, not to mention throwing so much legacy software down the drain. I think it reasonable that they could have an ARM as an extra processor, used as needed (and powered down when not needed), although that might need an IOMMU to help safely delegate limited hardware access to the ARM, not to mention a two-part OS. Alternatively, the ARM could be the main processor, with an Intel as the auxiliary; or that could migrate over time as appropriate.

Having both doesn’t really solve a problem and only complicates it. It will be more difficult to design and support and it won’t make it cheaper.

 

[v3rlon]

But the big difference is that Apple has to wait for Intel to design and develop the chip, not only fabricate it. With Apple handling all the design and development, TSMC just has to manufacture it. There will be a point at which chips can no longer be shrunk. (IMO 5 nm makes for ludicrously tight tolerances as it is.) But Apple can keep tweaking and improving their designs using existing fabrication processes.

The Moore’s Law limit was supposed to hit in 2010. There are other ways to develop the process. I was asking about in in the late 90s while working at AMD and one of our engineers drew 5 ways around the shrink limit on a white board in as many minutes. I wouldn’t bet on a 5nm limit. There are still other ways to improve the process.

Either way, I think the last processor Intel launched on time was the Pentium Pro in the early 90’s which is why I always thought it was weird that hardware sites gave AMD grief when the smaller company missed deadlines.

 

[BlandUsername]

I really hope that Apple only does this for consumer models .. Perhaps make the Mac mini, Macbook and iMac ARM-based Macs, and iMac Pro, Mac Pro, and MacBook Pro Intel based?

Noooo...Desktops should stay intel, portables can go the way of the overpriced lappad...

 

[0837990]

One important thing that people seem to look past is that NOBODY has been able to test Apples A-series chips in a multitasking environment where 10, 20 and even up to 30 applications run simultaneously. The A-series chips perform great on iPad's and iPhone's, but those devices specifically do not allow proper multitasking.

It's quite easy to design a chip that does one task really, really well, efficiently. It's not as easy to design a chip that is supposed to do many things really well all at the same time in an unpredictable manner.

Apple has IOS devices on complete lockdown. Thus they are predictable, and much easier to optimize performance for. A mac / PC won't be the same, unless Apple decides to completely lock down macOS on ARM as well, at which point, it is no longer a personal computer, but rather a computing appliance that lets you perform specific tasks, but does not allow you any low-level access or customization what-so-ever. Who wants that? Really? I can't imagine any engineer (software, hardware or infrastructure) wanting to work on a IOS like device that locks you completely down in regards to what you can and cannot access. That's fine for a media consumption device like an iPad or iPhone, but on a computer? Not really...

 

[Admiral]

How about two of them?? How about 4? 6? 8?

151mm2 - size of i7 (retail:$345-$400)
88mm2 - size of A12 (estimated cost to Apple: $30)

With another impending die shrinkage, Apple could EASILY manufacture multiprocessor units.

THIS is the reason a move to ARM is attractive to Apple. Instead of giving Intel four hundred bucks for the CPU, Apple spends thirty bucks to make its own — and then sells the computer at the former Intel Inside price (or perhaps throws the consumer a hundred bucks in "savings"). Tim Cook's Apple is always, always on the lookout for ways to jack the margins.

 

[aliensporebomb]

Except that they are already beating year old i7's. It's ridiculous I know but the benchmarks speak for themselves:

https://www.google.com/amp/www.ipho...tel-core-i7-chip-last-year-geekbench.html/amp

Benchmarks are great but if you don't have software to run on said system it's a fancy calculator.

Plus, I absolutely guarantee these benchmarks will be hit by thermal throttling. How do you cool an ipad running some high processor intensive application without throttling?

 

[cmaier]

That's it for the Mac. Even Microsoft tried something like that with no success. People expect a desktop to be powerful.

“Even Microsoft..”

The fact that Microsoft failed at something means that Apple must also fail? Is this the “Zune Hypothesis” or the “Windows Mobile Theory” or the “Vista Corollary?”

 

[LordVic]

One important thing that people seem to look past is that NOBODY has been able to test Apples A-series chips in a multitasking environment where 10, 20 and even up to 30 applications run simultaneously. The A-series chips perform great on iPad's and iPhone's, but those devices specifically do not allow proper multitasking.

It's quite easy to design a chip that does one task really, really well, efficiently. It's not as easy to design a chip that is supposed to do many things really well all at the same time.

Currently ARM servers do this by throwing a LOT of cores, rather than making them super fast. But they're really focused on insanely small, but fast calculations. So wider parallelization makes sense (Think servers for web requests, and encryption requests that can spread the load amongst 32-64 cores, but don't need super powerful cores).

Wonder what the core count to Mhz would be necessary to get a desktop ARM cpu performing in such a way. I know when I'musing a laptop, I'm don't just have 1 -2 programs running. I have many. And on a desktop? heck alone right now I have 15 programs running (some doing background work as well). This is where Apple needs to aim if they expect their CPU's to replace intels.

 

[cmaier]

One important thing that people seem to look past is that NOBODY has been able to test Apples A-series chips in a multitasking environment where 10, 20 and even up to 30 applications run simultaneously. The A-series chips perform great on iPad's and iPhone's, but those devices specifically do not allow proper multitasking.

It's quite easy to design a chip that does one task really, really well, efficiently. It's not as easy to design a chip that is supposed to do many things really well all at the same time.

On iPhones and iPads there are hundreds of simultaneously running processes.

And while macs run lots of applications simultaneously, its rare that many of them are doing much, just like on iOS devices.

 

[Admiral]

Sure... Apple won't be buying $400 processors from Intel anymore... but the cost isn't suddenly zero.

And I also don't think the price of the Mac will suddenly drop because they're using their own homegrown chips.

Nope, but the margins will suddenly increase.

 

[sofila]

If you’ve “moved on” from macs like many in this thread claim, what are you still doing here? Are you drunk posting on your ex’s forums, “I’m so over you! My new baby is so much sexier than you! She’s thinner and lighter and always turned on by everything I do. I’m SO much better off. You’ll never find someone as good as me- Waht? You’re seeing someone else? Who is he? Who does he think he is? What kind tramp jumps in bed with someone else after only three years?”

It is not about "moving on", or not for everyone at least. It is about looking for pros and cons, depending on your workflow, attitudes, needs etc. Regarding Surface Pro, it may be overpriced but I've found myself doing with it a lot of things that weren't possible with iPad Pro. So for me the overpriced tool is the second one. But for me, I can understand that my position is anecdotal