Intel's Cannonlake Chips Allegedly Delayed Until End of 2018

[albebaubles]

Something really weird is happening with the 10nm manufacturing process. It will probably be a huge step up in performance/power consumption, but delay after delay... It seems like it will never come.

I've made my choice, and won't wait any longer. This month I'm getting a 2017 nTB MacBook Pro, with a pair of beats
[doublepost=1505936099][/doublepost]
I think it will happen, eventually.
Heck, iOS was based on former OS X versions, and Forstall and his team managed to make it run on ARM Processors... all the apps in the iOS App Store are ARM based. I honestly don't see a reason why in some years it cannot happen.

Reconsider on the TB...as a developer I find I use it all the time. Only downside if JetBrains hasn't yet come on board with TB support
[doublepost=1505937229][/doublepost]

If Apple's Ax processors were even close to handling the general purpose workload on Mac, it would already be in those products.

It's ridiculous reading comments from posters who think Geekbench scores are representative of typical workloads. Ask guys like Linus Torvalds what he thinks of GB.

stop with the geekbench scores -- who cares. do you have proof Apple isn't working on ARMS for MacBooks? Thought so. Totally possible they could offer a hybrid solution initially. open your mind.

 

[Pbrutto]

Color me shocked.....

 

[Will0827]

I think it will happen, eventually.
Heck, iOS was based on former OS X versions, and Forstall and his team managed to make it run on ARM Processors... all the apps in the iOS App Store are ARM based. I honestly don't see a reason why in some years it cannot happen.

Agreed, it just makes to much sense/cents. Also the fact that the A11 is the first with Apples custom GPU, nearing total control outside of directly manufacturing.

 

[RickInHouston]

If they hurry, they will be able to match the A12's performance by the end of 2018

Then why hasn't apple done that already?

 

[Razeus]

I would buy this story. ...if they had any real competition.

 

[slagathor001]

As a former Intel employee, they have really frustrated me lately. I can't find a Mac that is substantially better than what I have and it's mainly because there are no significantly more powerful chips to put in them.

Of course the other problem is there hasn't been a "killer app" for a long time that justified needing more power.

Yeah, I've been wanting to update my 15" Mid 2015 MBP, but I've been waiting for some new intel chips or something to make this guy stronger! Seems like the new MBPs are a bit faster and all, and they have the touchbar, but thats about it, oh and the design change, but I'm talking about performance.

I hope they make it an option that you can get the high end MBP without a touch bar.

 

[cube]

deleted

 

[M.PaulCezanne]

Yeah, because this constant missing of schedules is somehow Apple's fault. And it's also Apple's fault for not planning ahead to incorporate Intel chips that may or may not be released on schedule (or actually perform). It definitely feels like deja vu to the days of Apple-IBM-Motorola alliance PowerPC chips debacle. Then what happened?

I don't know whose fault it is - just making a mildly sarcastic comment about how long it usually takes for Intel chips to make it into Apple computers.

 

[albebaubles]

Yeah, I've been wanting to update my 15" Mid 2015 MBP, but I've been waiting for some new intel chips or something to make this guy stronger! Seems like the new MBPs are a bit faster and all, and they have the touchbar, but thats about it, oh and the design change, but I'm talking about performance.

I hope they make it an option that you can get the high end MBP without a touch bar.

Dont forget the incredibly horrible new keyboard.

 

[Count Blah]

Unfortunately MacOS can't run on ARM processors which means it won't be possible to run desktop apps on Axx powered devices any time soon.. which is a big limitation regardless power these devices can get.

Link?

Apple would be neglegent if it didn't have MacOS and iOS running on every chip possible. They've done it in the past, and will continue to do such.

You know why? Options. If a technology/company goes down a dark path(Motorola/G5), they will be able to pivot to a different tech/company.

Also, you do know that Microsoft is working desperately to get Windows fully working on ARM, without all the Intel hooks?
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If Apple's Ax processors were even close to handling the general purpose workload on Mac, it would already be in those products.

You do realize that Apple is not in this alone, right?

They are not going to release a Mac that is not capable of satisfactorily running Windows. As soon as Microsoft has a solid, Intel free version of Windows, that can run everything as if it were on an Intel CPU, Apple will begin transitioning to ARM only. Until then, it ARM for iOS and Intel for MacOS.

In other words, it's NOT Apple holding back the transition, it's Microsoft.

 

[albebaubles]

Link?

Apple would be neglegent if it didn't have MacOS and iOS running on every chip possible. They've done it in the past, and will continue to do such.

You know why? Options. If a technology/company goes down a dark path(Motorola/G5), they will be able to pivot to a different tech/company.

Also, you do know that Microsoft is working desperately to get Windows fully working on ARM, without all the Intel hooks?
[doublepost=1505941181][/doublepost]
You do realize that Apple is not in this alone, right?

They are not going to release a Mac that is not capable of satisfactorily running Windows. As soon as Microsoft has a solid, Intel free version of Windows, that can run everything as if it were on an Intel CPU, Apple will begin transitioning to ARM only. Until then, it ARM for iOS and Intel for MacOS.

In other words, it's NOT Apple holding back the transition, it's Microsoft.

Interesting perspective. You're saying Apple is holding off because of their concern for Windows users running on Macs? I wonder if they even care about dual booting anymore in relation to Mac sales.

 

[JPack]

You do realize that Apple is not in this alone, right?

They are not going to release a Mac that is not capable of satisfactorily running Windows. As soon as Microsoft has a solid, Intel free version of Windows, that can run everything as if it were on an Intel CPU, Apple will begin transitioning to ARM only. Until then, it ARM for iOS and Intel for MacOS.

In other words, it's NOT Apple holding back the transition, it's Microsoft.

Unfortunately, that doesn't make much sense.

Apple is relying on Microsoft's timeline to introduce an ARM-powered Mac? When was the last time Apple counted on someone else to do the heavy lifting? Let's ignore the Mac "mea culpa" event in April 2017 where Apple said in no uncertain terms they had no plans for ARM in a Mac.

Common sense tells you Apple's efforts would be far better spent on converting users and developers to macOS rather than courting Microsoft. Users dual-booting between macOS and Windows is a mickey mouse solution that doesn't work in the long run.

Adding keyboard and mouse support to iPad to prove the Ax chips have the power to run several apps at once would be a first step.

 

[deconstruct60]

......
...

Unsurprisingly, Intel is believed to be facing problems with its 10-nanometer process, leading to a series of delays. Cannonlake chips were initially set to debut as early as 2017, but have been pushed back several times.If Intel doesn't get Cannonlake out until later in 2018, it could be followed shortly by Intel's Ice Lake chips, made on Intel's 10nm+ process. There's already been some confusion about Cannonlake, as Intel has been referring to Ice Lake as the successor to Coffee Lake, making it unclear just how Cannonlake fits in.

Huh? How it fits in? Here is a chart from a Mac Rumors article from almost one year ago (Sept 22).

https://www.macrumors.com/2016/09/22/intel-mobile-roadmap-coffee-lake/


CoffeeLake was being used on the bigger sized die mobile chips well into 2018. CannonLake as being targeted on the smaller die mobile chips in very later 2017 ( no beginning of the quarter so could easily slide into 2018) .

If look at the length of Kaby Lake on the big die solution ( ~5 Quarters ) if Coffee Lake ran a similar amount of time with would be well toward at least the end of 2018 if not into 2019. 2019 would be an uptake timeline for Ice Lake. If the gap between 10nm and 10nm+ is less than 8-9 months or so there not really a good reason for there to be a "big die" Cannon Lake.


I think some of the confusion stems from the notion that "xxxLake" has to be expanded across all processor models before going onto the next "yyyLake" variant. That isn't true. CoffeeLake isn't going down into the small die.


When the rumor is twisted up with CannonLake and CoffeeLake on linear succession, that rumor is a bit dubious.

Cannonlake is a low voltage chipset not appropriate for machines like the MacBook Pro, with the next-generation of those machines like to adopt Intel's as of yet to be released 14nm++ Coffee Lake chips or the eighth-generation Intel chips announced in August, which are part of a Kaby Lake Refresh.

Cannon lake isn't primarily "low voltage chipset". Icelake will be just as low when the larger dies deploy using that process. The overriding problem is defect rate and profitability of selling the chips. Smaller dies can still be profitable with a modest defect rate if the defects are generally distributed around the die. Each defect could be a die failure but the number of dies per silicon wafer processed is higher than that of big die solutions. IF can spread the cost of the defective die over 10-15 dies then it is relatively low.

Can also get around this with large die by cranking the die prices higher. Big FPGA solutions that Intel sells for $1,000+ a pop can cover defects more easily than a $200 die can. It costs 5x as much so there is profit slop to spend on "throw aways".

AMD cranking up the heat on Intel on CPU costs means Intel can't really play that second game ( just crank CPU prices higher to be on newest bleeding edge process). If anything Intel is going to feel some pressure to go the lower CPU prices ( where a mature, cheaper/paid-for process will actually lower costs/increase margins. )


I can see possible other priorities for Intel's 10nm wafer starts also if their cell-modem business has an substantial upturn and has smaller die needs than the Y and low-GPU U class need. Even more so if the general revised uptick of the KabyLake Y/Low-U has been gradual. ( new models rolled out in May-July 2017 so nothing new coming until 2018 anyway. )

 

[Count Blah]

Unfortunately, that doesn't make much sense.

Apple is relying on Microsoft's timeline to introduce an ARM-powered Mac? When was the last time Apple counted on someone else to do the heavy lifting? Let's ignore the Mac "mea culpa" event in April 2017 where Apple said in no uncertain terms they had no plans for ARM in a Mac.

Heavy lifting? No.
Since Apple has turned it's back on MacOS for iOS, there is no shot of Apple selling a Mac that cannot run windows effectively - ZERO. It's not heavy lifting, it's what Apple is willing to sell - iMacs and MBPs. If those don't come with Windows, it's a led balloon.

Common sense tells you Apple's efforts would be far better spent on converting users and developers to macOS rather than courting Microsoft. Users dual-booting between macOS and Windows is a mickey mouse solution that doesn't work in the long run.

It's mickey mouse that sells computers. People might now actually do it, but they sure as heck are not going to buy one that CAN'T do it.

Oh yeah and those efforts to convert users to MacOS is really going gangbusters right? Look at the travesty that is the Mac Mini and Mac Pro - Apple has given up that conversion a long time ago, it's about time you accept it.

Adding keyboard and mouse support to iPad to prove the Ax chips have the power to run several apps at once would be a first step.

Ahhh, so you are one of THOSE people who think an iPad can truly replace a computer(other than gran and gramps), I'll stop now.
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Interesting perspective. You're saying Apple is holding off because of their concern for Windows users running on Macs? I wonder if they even care about dual booting anymore in relation to Mac sales.

I think it take away a BIG piece of functionality. Whether people use it or not, is another question. But knowing you can run windows, is definitely a selling point. Especially since MacOS plays second fiddle to iOS in Cupertino.

 

[JPack]

Heavy lifting? No.
Since Apple has turned it's back on MacOS for iOS, there is no shot of Apple selling a Mac that cannot run windows effectively - ZERO. It's not heavy lifting, it's what Apple is willing to sell - iMacs and MBPs. If those don't come with Windows, it's a led balloon.

It's mickey mouse that sells computers. People might now actually do it, but they sure as heck are not going to buy one that CAN'T do it.

Oh yeah and those efforts to convert users to MacOS is really going gangbusters right? Look at the travesty that is the Mac Mini and Mac Pro - Apple has given up that conversion a long time ago, it's about time you accept it.


Ahhh, so you are one of THOSE people who think an iPad can truly replace a computer(other than gran and gramps), I'll stop now.

A lot of hand waving arguments, but ultimately nothing convincing from a business perspective... nor anything to contradict Apple's own words from less than 6 months ago.

Please do stop.

 

[Tech198]

The smaller u go, the harder it can takes and causes delays....

And it won't stop .. and the whole bad thing about all of this process, is no one even finds "why" and fixes it. Instead we just move on as if nothing has happened.

 

[Andres Cantu]

Cannonlake is the new Broadwell.

If Intel is going to say we'll have this product out by this date, then stick to it. Otherwise, don't announce anything.

 

[OldSchoolMacGuy]

Good, that means my laptop won't be obsolete so soon (though I guess it already is since it has the dinosaur technology known as Touch ID...)

This is the stupidest way of thinking.

"I hope technology doesn't advance so that I can feel like I have the biggest and best." Really? "I hope Apple goes out of business, then I can have the newest laptop forever!"

I'd far rather they put out better and better products all the time. I want my current device to become outdated because it means technology is moving forward and getting better. Then again, I want a device because of its power and ability to help me do a job, not because I want something to brag about being the latest and make up for my lacking in other places.

 

[ThisBougieLife]

"I hope technology doesn't advance so that I can feel like I have the biggest and best." Really? "I hope Apple goes out of business, then I can have the newest laptop forever!"

Yeah, that's what I said, sure.

 

[HiRez]

Unfortunately MacOS can't run on ARM processors which means it won't be possible to run desktop apps on Axx powered devices any time soon.. which is a big limitation regardless power these devices can get.

Of course it CAN. It doesn't right now, publicly, but it is absolutely possible. Don't forget when Apple computers used PowerPC chips they "couldn't" run on Intel chips...until they did. If Apple's not already running some version of macOS in their labs on ARM, they are negligent because Intel hasn't been that reliable lately. Most of Apple's APIs are already available on both macOS and iOS and the vast majority of them are common.

 

[pat500000]

nothing for mac pro?

 

[albebaubles]

Heavy lifting? No.
Since Apple has turned it's back on MacOS for iOS, there is no shot of Apple selling a Mac that cannot run windows effectively - ZERO. It's not heavy lifting, it's what Apple is willing to sell - iMacs and MBPs. If those don't come with Windows, it's a led balloon.

It's mickey mouse that sells computers. People might now actually do it, but they sure as heck are not going to buy one that CAN'T do it.

Oh yeah and those efforts to convert users to MacOS is really going gangbusters right? Look at the travesty that is the Mac Mini and Mac Pro - Apple has given up that conversion a long time ago, it's about time you accept it.


Ahhh, so you are one of THOSE people who think an iPad can truly replace a computer(other than gran and gramps), I'll stop now.
[doublepost=1505945917][/doublepost]
I think it take away a BIG piece of functionality. Whether people use it or not, is another question. But knowing you can run windows, is definitely a selling point. Especially since MacOS plays second fiddle to iOS in Cupertino.

I question how big that functionality is. Been using computers since '82, in the business since 87...since I switched from windows to Mac in '06 I can think of one time I used dual boot. not necessary with VMs...install virtual box -- and ANY OS you want. Blaming it on MS is misguided.
[doublepost=1505955678][/doublepost]

[doublepost=1505945917][/doublepost]
I think it take away a BIG piece of functionality. Whether people use it or not, is another question. But knowing you can run windows, is definitely a selling point. Especially since MacOS plays second fiddle to iOS in Cupertino.

You sir, are way off. Have you ever even installed xCode?

 

[Count Blah]

A lot of hand waving arguments, but ultimately nothing convincing from a business perspective... nor anything to contradict Apple's own words from less than 6 months ago.

Please do stop.

Apples' own words like "Pros are important to us" and "The Mac Mini is important". Please tell them to stop. Nothing I said was incorrect. You just don't seem to like it - Sorry.
[doublepost=1505956850][/doublepost]

I question how big that functionality is. Been using computers since '82, in the business since 87...since I switched from windows to Mac in '06 I can think of one time I used dual boot. not necessary with VMs...install virtual box -- and ANY OS you want. Blaming it on MS is misguided.
[doublepost=1505955678][/doublepost]

Blaming MS? What are you talking about? Did you even read what I wrote? It's a selling point - a BIG selling point. You don't use it, great. I don't use windows on my MBP either. But I'm damn happy I can, if need be. And I'm sure it's a component in a significant % of people's calculus, when deciding on what computer to get.

You sir, are way off. Have you ever even installed xCode?

Oh boy, internet ePeen contest.

I've been using Macs for decades. In my house I have a total of 8 Macs in various states(most in storage) that use the 68000 to a quad core i7. And if you think MacOS is seeing love from Apple, anywhere close to what is used to, you simply don't know history - it's the red headed stepchild of Apple, where the devs get pulled in all kinds of direction, and the Macs that run them don't get updated for 3-4 years at a time. PLEASE explain to me how these are the golden years of the Mac Computer Operating System - you can't

 

[albebaubles]

Apples' own words like "Pros are important to us" and "The Mac Mini is important". Please tell them to stop. Nothing I said was incorrect. You just don't seem to like it - Sorry.
[doublepost=1505956850][/doublepost]Blaming MS? What are you talking about? Did you even read what I wrote? It's a selling point - a BIG selling point. You don't use it, great. I don't use windows on my MBP either. But I'm damn happy I can, if need be. And I'm sure it's a component in a significant % of people's calculus, when deciding on what computer to get.
Oh boy, internet ePeen contest.

I've been using Macs for decades. In my house I have a total of 8 Macs in various states(most in storage) that use the 68000 to a quad core i7. And if you think MacOS is seeing love from Apple, anywhere close to what is used to, you simply don't know history - it's the red headed stepchild of Apple, where the devs get pulled in all kinds of direction, and the Macs that run them don't get updated for 3-4 years at a time. PLEASE explain to me how these are the golden years of the Mac Computer Operating System - you can't

Dang, I truly apologize - I conflated some of what jPack said with your input. I dont believe apple gives a wet fart about MS running on a Mac - and thus clearly dont think they would allow that to stop them from moving to a different chip arch. I got you beat on # of Macs. I have 3 with me in my travel trailer alone.
[doublepost=1505957929][/doublepost]As an aside, I find this all fairly hilarious. IBM switched OS' like crazy as they ramped up their experience/tech/knowledge. MVS/VM/Risc.....so many experts on this site with a whopping 10 year experience thin k they know all.

 

[Moonjumper]

Everyone here does know they can't compare Geekbench on ARM and X86, right?

And a mobile ARM chip cannot be compared to what a desktop ARM chip could be when built for the larger power and thermal options a computer can have.

Bringing Mac chip design in-house must be very desirable for Apple, especially after it has gone so well on iOS.

I can see potential for good and bad, but every Intel delay surely increases the chances of it happening.