I'm basing it on the fact that the Pride watch band and watch face have shown up, and they are usually released around this week in May along with the accompanying software updates.The final 3 weeks before WWDC is a marketing dead zone. You don’t want it Mid May release because then you are out of time for production announcements. Yes it becomes the worst time to market just before WWDC, and distracts from WWDC. It’s why it’s got to be wrapped up by then. If next week is RC which seems so given MacOS stability/optimization then it ends Monday after next.

As Pride goes virtual, Apple Watch Pride Edition helps community and advocacy continue worldwide
Apple Watch Pride Edition celebrates virtual Pride by directly supporting the work of LGBTQ organisations.
www.apple.com

Apple Watch Pride Edition bands celebrate the diverse LGBTQ+ movement
This year’s Apple Watch Pride Edition bands feature a broader set of colors to represent the diversity and history of the LGBTQ+ community.
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Apple unveils new Apple Watch Pride Edition bands
Apple is releasing two new Pride Edition bands with dynamic Pride watch faces in support of the global LGBTQ+ community and equality movement.
www.apple.com