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So we went through 2 days of anxiety and "Next week" crap regarding the drop date for beta 2...just like we did last year.

I'd counsel you to take the time and look at how things were done in the past. There's no guarantee they will do them the same every year, but given the constraints they have (WWDC at the front end at the beginning of June and the iPhone release at the back end, usually the third week of September) and you'll see that there is a reason for why these betas are released when they are.

I made the following prediction yesterday which put the greatest likelihood of it dropping today

My take on chances this week:

Tuesday: 25%
Wednesday: 35%
Thursday: 30%
Friday: 10%


I didn't come up with that with sorcery. I went back and looked at past years and discerned the pattern. I then wove into that the fact that there have been apparently no showstopping bugs. So, given the time constraints Apple is under, it made sense that it would drop this week. I could have flipped the percentages on Weds/Thurs, but decided not to. So I got lucky there.

I realize that guessing when a beta drops is not earth-shattering stuff (though some sure make it seem like it is), but it does bother me that people make all these crazy statements in this thread about what happened in past years without seemingly bothering to actually look at what happened in past years.

</rant>

See you all next year at this time when we'll do it all again!
 
The thing with Gurman's tweet.... I am sure that PB1 drops a week after the DB it's the same build of, so therefore if PB is July 11th, the DB would be the week of 4th July. I think Gurman might not have taken that into account, meaning why he had it as next week, wrongly.

I think he might be right on the PB1 date though.
 
So…. What’s the over/under in the first public beta actually landing this week?

I’d say decent chance.
 
So…. What’s the over/under in the first public beta actually landing this week?

I’d say decent chance.

I'd put my money on next week earliest.

MacOS 12.5 b4 was released Friday so I'm fairly certain this week will be iOS 15.6 b4 and no 16 update.
 
I'd put my money on next week earliest.

MacOS 12.5 b4 was released Friday so I'm fairly certain this week will be iOS 15.6 b4 and no 16 update.

BFBABC70-D751-478E-A073-B2BB1128FB4E.jpeg


I’d say we have another week for B3.
Looking back at 15,14,13. And then the release the day after of the Public beta 1.

Seems like we are following tight to iOS 15 schedule last year.
 
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That would put us into a weekly cycle though, if that’s what you’re saying?

Don’t we historically run 2 wks till about beta 3 I think ?!?

Actually that is not what I am saying. If they do it, it would be kind last year when they build that was iOS 15 DP2 also became PB 2 (because PB 1 was released at the same time as DP1 to AppleSeed testers).
 
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I’d say we have another week for B3.
Looking back at 15,14,13. And then the release the day after of the Public beta 1.

Correct on DP3. But the first public beta last year was not of the third beta but of the second, but a week after it was released to developers.

Seems like we are following tight to iOS 15 schedule last year.

My point exactly.


I’m not saying this is going to happen but that it could. I think Apple goes with the “next month” statement to buy it time if there are significant problems with the first 2 developer previews.

Here, while I have not noted anyone posting what I would consider show-stoppers, the public beta still could be held up if, for example, Apple is looking for a way to get Stage Manager on older iPads. They might wait for the first public release until they have that sorted out.
 
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I doubt we'll see a B3 this week. However, if Apple believes B2 is solid enough then we could see it released this week to the public testers. I think the chances of that are low, but not completely out of the realm of possibilities.

B3 is likely July 6th and if we haven't gotten public beta by then I'd imagine B3 would most certainly bring PB a day later July 7th (as long as no major problems arise).
 
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