Apple will do as Apple has done for years with the iPhone and iPod and introduce the iPad2 either on the day it is ready for sale or at most a week ahead of time.
As soon as they reveal it the main press will shout about it everywhere and even mainstream consumers will stop purchasing the iPad1 and wait for iPad2.
Exactly my words. It would also be very silly to send out that "give an ipad for vallentines day" e-mail and anounce or even release the new ipad right around that time. we will not see the new iPad before March or even April.
iOS 5 would be something that is needed. Honycomb dos not look perfect, but it looks a lot more like a tablet OS while the iPad naysayers still go for the old "it´s a big ipod touch" line. (wich it issent because of the different apps... but still, a bunch of squares fit a smal device much more than this big one)