Wait a minute. If you are referring to Ming-Chi Kuo's supposed report, I find it sketchy for these simple reasons:
- Technically like one of the users "Mystic Frost" pointed out on another thread, the next step in resolution is 3072x2304 with a scaling of 3 from 1024x768 (for app compatibility). That would first of all place it at essentially at 50% of more pixels straight away.
1.
I agree with what you say about Apple using only backwards compatible resolutions, however I will point out a few things:
3. "Pixel doubling" is stretching which is ugly as all hell. You're talking about scaling.
4. The next step in resolution is 3072x2304, not 4096x3072. Try not to think of the iPad 3+'s resolution as 2048x1536, rather 1024x768 with a scaling factor of two. Anything that's a multiple of 1024x768 is possible while maintaining app compatibility. At 3072x2304 the scaling factor becomes three. I could explain in more detail if you wanted.
5. It would only break app compatibility as much as the iPhone 5 did, which really wasn't much. However I don't believe the iPad needs an aspect ratio change, so there's no reason for them to do it at all.
No it wouldn't. Don't forget that it's a square function so increasing the horizontal and vertical pixel count from twice the original iPad (as the iPad 4 currently has) to three times the original iPad gives 1.5^2 times the number of pixels which is 2.25 times the pixel count of an iPad 4 (and 3), i.e. a 125% increase.
The only way I can see a more modest increase in pixel count being true is if Apple do something along the lines of the iPhone 4 to iPhone 5 change and keep the same horizontal (when viewed in portrait mode) resolution and stretch the screen a bit more vertically to move it closer to a 16:9 aspect ratio in recognition of the fact that watching video is a very common use for iPads.
I somehow doubt Apple would go all the way to 16:9 because it would make the screen and device too big but any stretch would help reduce top and bottom bars a bit when viewing 16:9 content and they're already almost certainly shrinking the side bezels for the iPad 5 so a bit of shrinking on the top and bottom ones in 2014 plus maybe a modest increase in the height of the device might allow a worthwhile move towards 16:9.
The home button is becoming an issue for Apple because it limits how much the bottom bezel can be reduced. I wonder how a TouchID scanner would perform in a more oblong shaped home button such as the ones found on the Samsung S4. That would give a bit more space for the screen.
I would really appreciate if Mystic Frost and Julian could help shed some light into this topic. I am more confused because both of you seem right.