I don't have a source, but I have been asking for months why the percentage of App Store revenue be any different than the percentage of iPhone revenue in the EU and no one has given me an answer. Why on earth would percentage of App Store revenue be meaningfully different? Seems like if the EU makes up 7% of App Store revenue they'd also make up around 7% of iPhone revenue, but I'd honestly appreciate a reason why that is a bad assumption. The best answer I've gotten so far is "EU users probably buy fewer Apps than American users" but no citation when I asked.
As another point in favor it for being significantly lower than the 22% of "Europe", we know Apple's two largest revenue drivers in the "Europe" segment are outside of the EU (
UK and India). Germany and France are next.
We can also do some math based on 2023 iPhone revenue:
Apple made roughly $200 billion worth of revenue from iPhone in 2023. Apple doesn't break out iPhone sales by region, but I've seen an estimate of ~$40 billion thrown out repeatedly. However, let's just assume that it's the same 22% of global revenue that the "Europe" market segment makes up. 22% of $200 billion is $44 billion.
- Apple is estimated to have made ~$10 billion (5%) of iPhone revenue in the UK (estimate of 8.4 million iPhones sold in UK, assuming average price of £899/$1150) and $5 billion (2.5%) in India (note the India number is conservative, per the article linked above, India accounted for 4% of iPhone revenue in Q2 2023). So right there the rest of the European market segment is down to $29 billion, or 14.5% of global iPhone revenue.
- The Middle East is estimated to account for around $5.6 billion (~3%) of iPhone revenue (5.6 million phones, assuming $999 average price). My link there says it does not include Turkey, and I'm unclear if it includes Israel, but for "being conservative" purposes we'll count both Turkey and Israel in the $5.6 billion. So now the European Market segment is down to $23.4 billion, or a little under 12% of global iPhone revenue.
- Now let's factor in Africa and non-EU countries not previously accounted for - harder to estimate here, as there aren't clear figures I can find. So I'll give them ALL to the EU.
So even with me spotting the EU $4 billion at the top of calculation, then giving the EU all non-UK European revenue, and all African revenue, and assuming Turkey and Israel are in the Middle East and not counted separately, we've got the EU with 12% of global iPhone revenue. If I use the $40 billion estimate I've seen cited, then the EU comes in right at 9.7% of global iPhone revenue and that is giving the EU all non-UK European revenue and all African revenue. Maybe some of my estimates are off, but even if I'm too low by 50%, the EU is swinging way above its weight when we look at the fines of 10/20% of Global revenue.
Again, Apple isn't going to pull out of the EU unless the EU does something very stupid like mandating encryption backdoors, and even then I don't know that they do.