Oh trust me, I'm fully aware of the reality of things, in fact, this is my career, but thats all I can say about that.
However, TSMC has already said they have enough water to at least push through the end of May without impact and by that point it's "possible" they might be able to avoid any serious disruption.
If that is all to come, and end of May brings shortages in water supplies, then it wouldn't have impact on Apple being able to launch a product in April, as theoretically, they would have already manufactured inventory prior.
Reality is things are stressed, there's no doubt to that argument, but Apple is also customer number one, they use their financial resources to bully all of these supply chains into their submission. Might they experience some disruption? Certainly. But don't discount the value of fear, even if disingenuous.