iPad Opening Weekend Pre-Orders Pegged at Roughly 150,000 Units

[sladey]

whats the dam problem?

As I understand it, this is the dam problem: because rainfall patterns have changed and population has increased, many dams servicing cities around the world have held quite low levels of water for a number of years.

In China the main dam problem of note is that recently several million people had to vacate their homes and villages to make way for the Three Gorges Dam.

But I think that might be off topic!

 

[sushi]

Good pre-order numbers -- especially for the Wi-Fi only version.

The iPad is not a cheap item, therefore I expect many are waiting to make a decision once they get their hands on one to try it out.

Also, I would venture to say that there are quite a few who are waiting for the 3G version to be available for pre-order.

 

[kernkraft]

Any tablet running Windows is not"very good"in my book,regardless of the hardware.

So if it's not iPhone OS, it has to be Windows?!

How about Android and the rest?

 

[deconstruct60]

What's the difference between an iPad "order" and an iPad "sale"? Maybe an iPad order is one submitted purchase, possibly for multiple iPads. iPad sales show the actual number of iPad units being sold. IF this is the case, however, where is he getting average of 1.125 iPads per order?

You also have to question the sampling technique but also what is being sampled. There are a certain percentage of people here who are not buying an iPad to use, but an iPad to resell. The perception that there is going to be a shortage is real. Apple itself is limiting folks to two.

Also likely getting a bit of worldwide developer buy before worldwide deployment. [ Offshore developers have strong motivation of getting earlier access, before local market appearance, to the iPad. ]

Neither one of the are long term sustainable contributors to sales. After the initial rush Apple's production capacity will catch up (for the most part) and the developers are a limited population.

Certainly there are going to be families or multiperson households/orgs that need more than one iPad. However, that is very likely to be atypical given the pricing. Most sales are going to be of just one. That fact that it is currently significantly above one is likely indicative that are not measuring long term sales trends.

He is speculating the 1 million order figure on data consisting of only 120 orders and 137 iPad sales?

Don't even have to go into sample size but sampling accuracy regardless of numbers. Frankly unless iPads are being assigned iPad unique order numbers only really measuring order numbers of the overall store. The sample size that is really in question is getting any signficant numbers of non-ipad order numbers in order to factor that out.


The other issue here is whether measuring demand that is just time shifted. There is little reason to assume that the drop in iPad pre-orders has bottomed out. The number of order would appear likely to continue to shrink over time, not got to some steady state. Folks who are waiting to handle one before ordering aren't likely to get off that bandwagon the closer get to April 3. They are still going to wait.

The run up to the sustainable steady state sell rate will only occur after folks have handled the iPad and have put aside (or have confidence in future flow ) money to pay for it. The opening weekend is a completely different set of primary motivator drivers ( "must be first", "blind faith" , "don't want to use, just need test device", etc. )



P.S. There is going to be growth over the course of the year in part because Apple is going to roll the iPad out to more countries over time. I suspect Apple will "manage" that growth to max out the "magical" iPad numbers over the course of the first year.

 

[Eidorian]

Apple: The ultimate form of peer pressure consumerism!

As much as I could care less about the iPad right now I have to give credit Apple for figuring out the perfect recipe for creating a frenzy for products as status symbols. No one gives a crap if you have a Blackberry but if you DON'T have an iPhone you must be poor/incompetent/non-tech savvy so people get one so they don't feel labeled otherwise. Same with Macbooks in colleges. It isn't "Why do I need a Macbook" it's "OMG everyone else has one and my Dell looks horrible.. Daddy I need a Macbook!"

And now we have the iPad, a product no one cared about until Apple repackaged it as a "new, magical and innovative device" and people are pre-ordering something that has no tested value or having touched one! Amazing!

I love my MBP, IPT and my way-overpriced-MacPro but wow I don't understand the mass hysteria thing and never have.

I'll give Apple credit for that.

 

[londonmystery]

Does anyone know if the HE discount is available on the ipad????

 

[deconstruct60]

I reserved one at my local store for pickup, but whether I actually purchase it is another story. It doesn't quite overwhelm me, especially after reading this article and googling the competition:

http://finance.yahoo.com/family-home/article/109051/should-you-preorder-an-ipad

That 6 month price drop speculation is very likely to be wishful thinking. Especially, if Apple can get a run rate of over 500-600K a month.

People have confused the multiyear price drop strategy of the iPod and iPhone that Apple has engaged in with the "gouge and then drop" attempt they made on the initial iPhone. As the article outlines Apple burned some bridges with that stunt. Seems doubtful they'd want to repeat that mistake again.

Next year, Apple can sell this year's iPad for less money as part of the line up. ( the tech will be older and so cheaper to acquire and sell. ) Given all of the models this year are the initial version, there is no "last year's" version/tech they can sell.

Likewise, can perhaps move the iPod Touch down a bit next year. Apple isn't likely to create a price overlap between Touch (or iPhone w/ equiv memory) and iPad. That is quite unlike the initial iPhone when there are no other device to move "down" upon in price. The Touch and Phone are going to contribute to keeping the iPad price up.

Won't be surprised if several vendors don't come up with a subsidized iPad model. The iPad won't get cheaper from the lifecycle cost perspective, just the initial acquisition cost one.

 

[deconstruct60]

Does anyone know if the HE discount is available on the ipad????

If HE is higher education, then it has been reported that there is no discount in edu apple store.

That may change when production catches up with demand in the future. That's likely to be quite a while though since will have to finish bulk of worldwide rollout for that to happen.

 

[dicklacara]

Just a couple of points on some of the meta-topics in this thread -

I think Apple is using the "magical" theme in reference to Sir Arthur Charles Clarke's quote that "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."

"It just works," According to SJ.

I've said this before but will repeat it here. With the Ipad Apple is trying to culture change how people interact with a "computer."

Ignore 30+ years of computing and imagine how gobsmacked we would be by the Ipad if that style of personal computing had been introduced in the 1980's. With 2010's functionality of course. The tech world would be completely different had we walked the mobile computing path years ago.

And it's my gut feeling that the Ipad with be the PRIMARY computing device for millions of people in the world, not a tertiary one. Think outside your own generation to the ones both in front and behind you. And to the world outside the "First World."

Dave

... and, we have a winner!

*

 

[Xibalba]

I don't quite understand the negative spin implied by the article.

These numbers are incredible. It took Apple 74 days to sell one million iPhones in 2007. If iPad sells a million units in two weeks, that's phenomenal.

Agree - but for many haters of the device - whether they were hoping for something different to be released or want one but can't afford the new device - they will still call the release a "fail."

I really could not care less what others think of the device, I already have uses both professional and personal for the 2 iPads I pre-ordered. April 3 come quickly!

 

[DaveSW]

Agree - but for many haters of the device - whether they were hoping for something different to be released or want one but can't afford the new device - they will still call the release a "fail."

I really could not care less what others think of the device, I already have uses both professional and personal for the 2 iPads I pre-ordered. April 3 come quickly!

agree. and in comparison Google only sold 20,000 Nexus One's for the entire first week.

 

[Xibalba]

agree. and in comparison Google only sold 20,000 Nexus One's for the entire first week.

Wow - really? I was not aware of that - it appears to be a pretty nice device but I have yet to play with one in person. Seems like such a low volume for the hype and power behind the first Google phone.

 

[kdarling]

Wow - really? I was not aware of that - it appears to be a pretty nice device but I have yet to play with one in person. Seems like such a low volume for the hype and power behind the first Google phone.

Actually, the numbers were darned good for the way it was done:

It was sold on T-Mobile, with no advertising or hype worth mentioning.

It's amazing it sold at all !

 

[Bruce Oksol]

Actually, the numbers were darned good for the way it was done:

It was sold on T-Mobile, with no advertising or hype worth mentioning.

It's amazing it sold at all !

That is a very good point. Was there any advertising at all? I don't recall any advertising.

 

[Bruce Oksol]

I can't divulge the source, but the reason the launch/delivery date was delayed to April 3 was to have full quarter worth of sales, so as to be able to fully compare quarter-over-quarter. Had they shipped one week earlier, last week in March, then some of the sales would have been booked in first calendar quarter (Jan-Feb-Mar). This way, the entire second calendar quarter (Apr-May-Jun).

Although April 3 is the third business day in the quarter, April 3 is a Saturday which allows large crowds of people to show up at Apple stores, for a huge media event.

I love it when it all comes together.

 

[Eldiablojoe]

Actually, the numbers were darned good for the way it was done:

It was sold on T-Mobile, with no advertising or hype worth mentioning.

It's amazing it sold at all !

But, IIRC, after that first week, they dropped the price. That is usually not indicative of success, but of reaching plateau and trying to spur additional sales.

 

[NT1440]

I can't divulge the source, but the reason the launch/delivery date was delayed to April 3 was to have full quarter worth of sales, so as to be able to fully compare quarter-over-quarter. Had they shipped one week earlier, last week in March, then some of the sales would have been booked in first calendar quarter (Jan-Feb-Mar). This way, the entire second calendar quarter (Apr-May-Jun).

Although April 3 is the third business day in the quarter, April 3 is a Saturday which allows large crowds of people to show up at Apple stores, for a huge media event.

I love it when it all comes together.

You're saying they didn't think of that beforehand?

 

[AidenShaw]

I can't divulge the source, but the reason the launch/delivery date was delayed to April 3 was to have full quarter worth of sales, so as to be able to fully compare quarter-over-quarter. Had they shipped one week earlier, last week in March, then some of the sales would have been booked in first calendar quarter (Jan-Feb-Mar). This way, the entire second calendar quarter (Apr-May-Jun).

If true, this must mean that Apple expects poor sales, and needs to
make sure that the numbers are as good as possible.

Otherwise, Apple would have shipped at the end of March as promised.
______

However, I don't believe this. Apple submits very generalized sales
breakdowns - it's hard to tell how many MiniMacs/MacPros/Imacs are
sold, since Apple reports "desktops".

I'd be surprised if the Apple reports for the June quarter tell us
how many Ipads are sold.

 

[deconstruct60]

I can't divulge the source, but the reason the launch/delivery date was delayed to April 3 was to have full quarter worth of sales, so as to be able to fully compare quarter-over-quarter. Had they shipped one week earlier, last week in March, then some of the sales would have been booked in first calendar quarter (Jan-Feb-Mar).

Apple has shipped products outside of quarter boundaries though. MacOS X with a couple weeks left in quarter. Doesn't necessarily means bad sales expectations. Just that don't really need the iPad to make the current quarter good. Likewise have to look at what offsetting perhaps in decline from last year. Last June Apple pulled the new iPhoneOS update into June in part so that would help rain on WebOS parade. They aren't going to get that massive software upgrade revenue bump this year if move the iPhone OS upgrade back into July.

Second, with the relatively last minute flip/flop on mute vs. orientation lock .... there had to be a huge last minute software release to manufacturing hiccup that could easily suck up a week. Software often has last minute, week-slip, glitches when you don't change the functionality of code attached to a button.


Additionally, this also gives them several more days of production time, before "hands on" sales. Given the buzz they have will prove a better match that what they had queued up.


Likewise gives them an approximate every 3 months pacing going forward for yearly introductions.

Late March Early April -- iPad
Late June Early July -- iPhone
Early September -- iPod / Touch

( late December is its own product rush with the holiday buying season. Don't really need to intro in that general time frame. )

Just kick off those introductions each year and have product refreshes spread around the year.

 

[deconstruct60]

That is a very good point. Was there any advertising at all? I don't recall any advertising.

Google gave a free Nexus One to all of their employees before Christmas.

There was advertising .... just the viral kind to the techno establishment. Not to the general gadget consumer masses.

Don't think Google particularly wanted to have a customer onslaught meltdown moment anyway. The company doesn't really sell things to people directly before Nexus One. Going from zero to million customers in a very short period to time is something really don't want to do if have high profile image to uphold. Bound to be glitches.

Furthermore, Droid was riding pretty good in the lead up to the launch. Probably didn't really want to get into a "out shadow" in mainstream media contest with Moto. If Droid had flopped they could have shifted. It didn't, so was not necessary.

Nexus One is a long term willing platform development strategy. It plays role similar to what AppleTV plays at Apple ( a creative project that keeps the ideas flowing) . There was no need to sell in massive numbers (versus all alternatives). Droid was already doing that. Google wins when the Android platform as a whole wins.

 

[DaveSW]

Actually, the numbers were darned good for the way it was done:

It was sold on T-Mobile, with no advertising or hype worth mentioning.

It's amazing it sold at all !

No it was not "good"..it was a FLOP. Nexus One's product launch was a FLOP. Don't try to sugar coat it.

Also, that's Google and T-mobile's fault for not advertising the device properly. Poor Marketing and poor distribution.

And what do you mean there was no marketing?? there was marketing, but it was not done properly...

Google thought..."oh lets put a link of the product page on our home page, im sure the nexus one's going to sell like hot cakes.." And blogs like techcrunch, engadget, etc. were talking about the Nexus One days before it was launched so there was definitely an effort to hype the product.


Nexus One's product launch was a FLOP.

 

[wovel]

I love my MBP, IPT and my way-overpriced-MacPro but wow I don't understand the mass hysteria thing and never have.

Really? What laptop with similar features and form factor is WAY less expensive (or even moderately less expensive) than your Mac Book pro?

--This is where you find something that is lacking feature x,y, and z (which obviously are not important to anyone!!) or weighs twice as much and is twice as thick as your macbook pro (because only sissies care about size and weight).

 

[wovel]

If true, this must mean that Apple expects poor sales, and needs to
make sure that the numbers are as good as possible.

Otherwise, Apple would have shipped at the end of March as promised.
______

However, I don't believe this. Apple submits very generalized sales
breakdowns - it's hard to tell how many MiniMacs/MacPros/Imacs are
sold, since Apple reports "desktops".

I'd be surprised if the Apple reports for the June quarter tell us
how many Ipads are sold.

Or (more likely), They expect very good sales which will cause them to exceed their estimates which is the primary motivating factor of nearly all publicly traded companies. By booking all the revenue from the launch into one quarter they most likely handily beat their estimates, if they split the launch week it would not have nearly as dramatic an impact.

Conversely, splitting the launch week would be a particularly good idea if you expected poor sales. This gives a ready made explanation and makes it much easier to mask the numbers.

Edit: Kind of missed the part where toy said you don't believe it

 

[doobs22]

iPad vs MBP

Really? What laptop with similar features and form factor is WAY less expensive (or even moderately less expensive) than your Mac Book pro?

--This is where you find something that is lacking feature x,y, and z (which obviously are not important to anyone!!) or weighs twice as much and is twice as thick as your macbook pro (because only sissies care about size and weight).

I had been intending to get a new 13" MacBook Pro, but now I'll wait 'til mid_April (2010) to try the wifi iPad in an Apple store, and if it handles Podcast videos well, I'll probably get a 64GB wifi iPad instead of a new 13" MacBook Pro.

 

[firewood]

I've said this before but will repeat it here. With the Ipad Apple is trying to culture change how people interact with a "computer."

Some of the critics of the iPad not being a "computer" remind me a little too much of the IBM mainframe salesmen who told their customers how these newfangled minicomputers couldn't do a fraction of what a "real" computer could do, and a couple decades later how the minicomputer salesmen told their customers that how these new PCs couldn't run any of the professional software you could only run on a "real" computer. A decade from now you may have to explain "Flash" to the younger ones the same way your uncle has to explain how cards with punch holes in them have anything to do with computers.