iPad Sales May Decline to Lowest Quarterly Level Since 2011

[Mac 128]

The Pencil seems to be very well-liked, and reviews have been favorable. But their scope is also pretty narrow, whereas Microsoft's is broad...

Combined with his report, there might actually be something to Apple announcing an iPad Air 3 with Pencil support, whereas I would have said that's at least a year away while they use it as a selling point to boost Pro sales. Likewise with 3D-Touch.

Though that's still far from an event headliner, especially in light of these sales numbers. However, maybe that's the plan, keep people talking about the iPad. On the other hand, releasing that updated iPad closer to the holidays would probably result in more sales.

 

[MH01]

its what happens when you introduce a larger iphone, an ipad mini and update your ipad on such regular intervals. Apple is back to having too many devices, cause market research says someone wants x size. They need to cull a few products again.

if the Ipad air 3 comes with pencil support, in the hope it will drive sales, it may backfire. They just need one ipad in the whole range

 

[macduke]

The problem is the iPad is already too powerful for what it can do. They need to introduce compelling software features that take advantage of powerful hardware. Who needs a tri-core A8X to post to Facebook? It was nice that they added split-screen multitasking, but personally I barely use it. I like my iPad Air 2 and might upgrade if they add Apple Pencil support to the 3. But I doubt most people would upgrade just for that. Apple should release some compelling pro apps.

It's too bad they stopped making Aperture. That would be a compelling reason to have a higher-end iPad for a lot of creative types. Lightroom Mobile is neat but lacks basic functionality like importing RAW files on the device itself. I don't expect my iPad to hold an entire library, but it would be great if I could dump a shoot onto it and get some quick edits to post online. Maybe use the Apple Pencil to dodge and burn and retouch. If I need to do any finishing work or calibrate the colors for printing, it could easily sync back to the library on my Mac—either via iCloud or even USB as RAW files are big. It would also be nice to get Logic Pro X, and at some point down the road maybe Final Cut Pro X. They need a better way of managing files in a project-based production workflow. But I think the iPad could handle the additional complexity these apps bring—especially if they add 3D Touch.

I think the iPad has matured, much like the Mac. But many regular users only buy one or the other. It might be time to make a hybrid device. Something that, unlike the Microsoft Surface, does tablet and desktop well. Apple has some nice patents up their sleeve for quickly switching an OS UI from touch optimized to mouse optimized and vice versa. The advent of high-end processors with laptop-quality performance such as the A9X makes this possibility more likely than ever. Factoring in the confluence of Mac OS and iOS over the years makes it even more likely. I know the naysayers mention how Apple would never do it because they've said they wouldn't. But Apple has done a lot of things they said they would never do: Apple Pencil, iPad Mini, iPhone Plus, NFC payments, video iPods—these are just the ones I can come up with on the spot. Nothing is off limits. You're always going to minimize your competitors until you have an answer. And Apple often answers well.

 

[Keerock]

My hospital was handing out iPads with every Desktop/Laptop to new Admins, Managers and Directors but we started handing out an imaged Surface Pro 3 with a dock and monitors instead of the iPad and HP gear now. We haven't ordered a new iPad in about a year and some change.

That makes a lot of sense from a TCO stand point. I think the IBM/Apple strategic partnership is aiming to change that deficiency at least from an Enterprise app standpoint. Hardware-wise they cannot offer a real docking solution. We'll see if they can they can stem the tide of change from customers like your hospital. I hope someone from Apple is reading your posted reply.

 

[69Mustang]

Definitely, at one point my daughter's school system was going to be giving out iPads to the students. Now they're handing out Chromebooks instead.

This. Same at my youngest's school. 3rd, 4th, and 5th grade outfitted with Chromebooks for the cost of outfitting one grade with iPads. Plus Alphabet seems all-in with Google for Education.

 

[AustinIllini]

You could say the same thing of cars but sales over the years have generally gone up. It's not about any of the above, it's about making compelling upgrades and generating consumer demand. If Ford just kept making the Model T since 1908 and refused to make real changes over time it wouldn't be in business today.

The issue is, iPad upgrades aren't as compelling as fancy new cars and iPad upgrades aren't as obvious.

 

[macfacts]

Everyone is just commenting on the number of sales and how low it is. No one has talked about the market share of the iPad, which the graph shows as declining. That means people are buying other tablets.

 

[Fattytail]

its what happens when you introduce a larger iphone, an ipad mini and update your ipad on such regular intervals. Apple is back to having too many devices, cause market research says someone wants x size. They need to cull a few products again.

if the Ipad air 3 comes with pencil support, in the hope it will drive sales, it may backfire. They just need one ipad in the whole range

A diversified product line usually leads to more sales, not less. I think it's a combination of a lack of interest, longer update cycle and a lack of real innovation. iPads are just bigger iPhones. Not everyone wants one of those. What would be interesting to see is how sales would be if Apple released an iPad with Macbook innards. So if the iPad Pro were a Macbook, let's say.

 

[MacBH928]

Its all about greed. When the original iMac G3 went on sale I believe it sold around 300k units per quarter and it was considered a smashing success. Now 9m is lousy sales record.

None the less, American companies think they can grow to infinite and never reach market saturation. Today's iPad does nothing more than the original iPad back in 2010 for the most part. Why would any one upgrade?

If Apple want to see more iPad sales they better change the software into something more serious, and then it will start eating into their desktop and laptop market.

 

[RedOrchestra]

.

iPad needs it's OWN user interface not the hand-me-down iPhone iOS - do that with earnest and people will cast a better eye toward the product.

Slumping sales - just how few iPad Pros were sold?

 

[macduke]

its what happens when you introduce a larger iphone, an ipad mini and update your ipad on such regular intervals. Apple is back to having too many devices, cause market research says someone wants x size. They need to cull a few products again.

if the Ipad air 3 comes with pencil support, in the hope it will drive sales, it may backfire. They just need one ipad in the whole range

That's a good point. "The Paradox of Choice" could be at play here. For those unaware, it basically means that when presented with too many choices, people are less likely to make a choice (and in this case buy a product). I'm fairly certain that's why my mom hasn't upgraded her old iPad. She's always asking me the benefits of the different sizes and she is often torn between saving money and spending more vs having something portable in her purse at all times and something she can stream shows on, as she often uses it to consume a lot of media, vs buying the fastest model that will last her longer. Lots of factors at play when deciding what to upgrade to. Just look at their site: iPad Pro, iPad Air 2, iPad Air, iPad Mini 4, iPad Mini 2. Sure, people like us on the MacRumors forums know all of the differences. But normal people are overwhelmed by all the differences and price points. Factor in all the storage options and people are even less likely to decide because many people have no concept of what they can store in a gigabyte.

 

[samcraig]

Everyone is just commenting on the number of sales and how low it is. No one has talked about the market share of the iPad, which the graph shows as declining. That means people are buying other tablets.

I addressed that in my post. People clearly don't need "more powerful" and/or don't feel the need to spend a lot on a tablet since there are many highly functional tablets at a lower price. But Apple has more marketshare to lose as they were the "top" choice when the iPad hit (or within a year of it being released). Unlike the iPod of its day, their are strong ecosystems now that offer good alternatives (Google/Amazon).

 

[Marco123]

Apple had the world eating out of its hands as far as the iPad went but they blew it.
They screwed up education and what people wanted. I have seen people love their iPads but use a windows device to connect to a display for a presentation.
I've seen the same people use their iPad pro while using a Windows desktop beside it.
Those people now use their iPads to watch Netflix and browse the Internet and Windows when they need to do their work.
I love my iPhone and iPad but I honestly see Apple devices and this closed wall attitude as mere toys but really nice toys at that.
Apple really missed the boat on education because those 16GB models and their profit margins clouded their judgment.

 

[MTL18]

Everyone has an iPad now, so there's less need to upgrade. I "might" consider getting a new one if they all had touch ID AND could use the pencil AND had force touch. Otherwise the one I have still does what I need it to.

Except the information in the article is telling you that cannot be true. iPad market share is continually going down year over year. While it is possible that people do not upgrade as often, there will also be current customers leaving the iPad line and new customers choosing non-iPad tablets.

For myself, I was a customer that had an iPad, sold it after 3 years, and never replaced it. I found that there wasn't a tremendous need for two iOS products, especially when the phone became much larger and more powerful.

The iPad line needs an overall, and for myself to consider buying another one I will need some form of software modification. Multi-user support and a computer OS would go a long way to bringing me back. Until then, a recent phone and a MacBook Pro do everything I need.

 

[Padaung]

I find apps for iPad overall too limited - I use my Macbook for most tasks because iPad cannot offer the functionality. Plus with the larger iPhone 6 screen I find I use my iPad less.

I agree, I think this is going to be the greater long term reason for the decline in sales rather than people just not upgrading their iPad every year. Unless there is a significant shift in the ability to do actual work on the iPad (I know, some people do and have workflows which work well for them - but for many people it is just easier to pick up a laptop and get on with it) I can't see this trend changing. To the detriment of Apple, I'm seeing more and more 2-in-1s running Windows 10. Having been a mac user for the past 20 years (Power Mac, Mac Mini, Macbook, iPhone, iPod) I purchased a Windows laptop last month. You guessed it, a 2-in-1. My Macbook and tablet have honestly not been used once since. Writing this on my Mac Mini though

Also, I see no reason to update my 2 year old iPad Mini, it works just fine.

Agree with this too. Like a laptop, upgrading to the latest iPad every year or two is unnecessary for many people.

 

[gugy]

I want an iPad Pro but it is too expensive and adding the Pencil and Keyboard we are talking the prices of a MacBook. That is just not feasible.
I use mostly iPads for entertainment and very light work like writing emails and some PDF. For my needs, serious work needs a Macbook and MacOS. The iPad won't help me with that so I can't justify paying the high price of the iPad pro.
Apple needs to lower the prices of iPads across the board and increase storage. 16gb is a plain joke. Also, it is important to figure out a way to add an input device like a USB-C and allow the iOS to accept external sources.

Then maybe I think we can see a renewed interest on iPads. Just making it light, bigger and faster processors is not going to entice people who already have one.

 

[CEmajr]

The tablet market is totally saturated. Unlike phones, there isn't much reason to constantly upgrade your tablet. The only ones actually growing are the dirt cheap ones and those don't make any money for their manufacturers.

 

[mattoligy]

Yet Microsoft are selling more and more surfaces! Apple were so arrogant blatantly refusing to release an "all in one" and now the inevitable is happening.

It's this simple... People Want The Power Of A Full OS WITH a touch screen!!

The iPad is great for web browsing and watching Netflix in bed etc but outside of the few things a larger screened iPhone provides, which lets face it, is what an iPad is, people would rather just use their iPhone because it can do pretty much everything an iPad can do, and when all is said and done they can put it in their pocket, take it anywhere, make phone calls, take decent pictures, and more.

For people to want to share their iPhone's workload, the device has to do it all, which is why nine out of ten people on these very forums say the prefect set up for them is an iPhone and a MacBook or an iPhone and an iMac... And I agree, a full OS can do all the things an iPhone, and by extension, an iPad, can't do!

But here's the problem with the Mac lineup... It's stuck in the past! Ok the components get refreshed, but where's the innovation outside of an obsession with how thin they are? Point and click has its uses (mainly for professionals) but outside of that it's becoming outdated! Apple as well as others have tried to refresh its functionality with trackpads, gestures and larger trackpads, which has helped but not cured how old it's starting to feel... I keep reading articles about how more and more people are using their smart phones. A persons phone is become like an additional limb, people are fused with them... And what is the main input method of a smart phone? It's touch screen! Does that not tell you something obvious... There is no way I am paying that kind of money for a premium computer that doesn't even offer me the natural, quick and easy input that my phone offers!

The Microsoft Surface type devices are the future and Apple is paying heavily because it refuses to see it!

Don't get me wrong though, Microsoft have done a terrible job at a two in one software solution with awkward little UI buttons etc and it just doesn't work well on a touchscreen, but that's where Apple could revolutionise... Which is what I was expecting from the iPad pro... A lite weight fully touch optimised OS X with just enough left out that people who really need a Mac would still buy one!

But what did we get... An even bigger iPhone. Omg, are Apple really that slow? Keep iOS for the iPhone as it was intended Apple. If you want to save the iPad you know what you have to do.

 

[Sasparilla]

Was considering selling my Air 2 ahead of the 3's release. Most Apple products don't loose alot value during that 1st year, but the Air 2 had lost a significant amount of value (very PC / Android like) indicating demand in the used market is soft as well. I'm not selling the Air 2 at a big loss just to get a 3.

Seems like there's a confluence of factors at work here though. The iPhone 6(s) & 6(s)+ have gored the iPad mini market and even the full iPad market to an extent. With the iPad 2 still getting iOS updates its biggest use is probably browsing (and non CPU intensive apps) letting folks keep using an older one just fine (or buy a competitor cheaper tablet that can browse okay).

We have a iPad 2 as well which works good, the pusher to upgrade on that (for me) is that iOS will probably not be upgraded for it this year (guessing), cutting out security updates and we'll replace it...but I doubt most folks with iPad 2's will even realize that.

 

[KaliPaige]

The current generation of devices has become so capable that most consumers aren't as pressured to upgrade as they were even three years ago.

I just recently upgraded from an iPad 2 to an iPad Mini 4. This device is infinitely faster than what it replaced, so the only thing that would make me upgrade sooner than later would be some killer feature in the Mini 5 such as some features off the iPP or greatly increased battery life, or future iOS updates making the Mini 4 absolutely unbearable to use.

And honestly, with the way my iPad 2 held up for 4 years all the way to iOS 9 as old as it is? I don't see that happening any time soon.

 

[Ries]

The iPad needs a home screen, my events for today, tomorrow, ... Configurable "glances" for the apps you want a quick overview from.

 

[Mac21ND]

The iPad needs a compelling feature that is not offered on an iPhone or MacBook. Right now it doesn't have one. Combine that with a high price point and there's not much incentive to buy a new one.

 

[RedOrchestra]

Unlike phones, there isn't much reason to constantly upgrade your tablet.

Personally I don't think there's been any "significant" development in the iPhone to warrant regular upgrading, either.

 

[JGRE]

Well, I see this as a good point. Till now Apple was making a lot of money while (as other above pointed out) with limited memory, no connections etc. They were in a easy "driver-seat". Now, Apple will have to come with a game changer (or it will have to leave this market). I expect more value for money with either more stuff or lower prices (I hope for the first).
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Personally I don't think there's been any "significant" development in the iPhone to warrant regular upgrading, either.

Don't agree, only a better camara by itself is reason enough for me.
The change from 5/5s to 6 was reason enough for me too. So I am exited to see what's up next for the 7.

 

[Chupa Chupa]

The issue is, iPad upgrades aren't as compelling as fancy new cars and iPad upgrades aren't as obvious.

Well, first, that wasn't what you said in your original post. You said:

iPads are a baked product with a reasonably long lifespan in a saturated market.

And my point was that cars too are a baked product with a reasonable long lifespan in a saturated market. Almost everyone who wants a car has one, or at least has access to one. Yet car sales generally keep increasing over time. Even more, cars are an average 25x more expensive than the most expensive Air2.

I agree that the iPad updates are not compelling -- I said so in a post before yours. But that is a different argument than people don't buy iPads because they last long. Cars, with proper care, can last 8 years or longer. But that never stopped consumers from trading in every 3 years to get the latest design or newest features.